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Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 16,512
Campfire Ranger
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OP
Campfire Ranger
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 16,512 |
I thought all along 18 was a great entry point.......this virus may not be going away soon enough........but very encouraging news on turning the corner perhaps in the coming weeks. I agree.........many many reports to be coming on earnings, job losses, etc. and they are unknown. Yes, consumer and investor confidence and sentiment will pave the way........
The market - is it trying to find a floor here? One might speculate.....but we will not know until weeks or months pass, looking back.
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Joined: May 2011
Posts: 7,515 Likes: 1
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: May 2011
Posts: 7,515 Likes: 1 |
I would bail out now. O&G is the worst place to be in the market now.
Sure you can make some money on O&G but why? The O&G market sucks, and there are so many solid healthy companies in other sectors to invest in. To each their own for sure. But O&G is a bad place to be.
So because these threads get buried...an update for those who followed this thread, after one month of April trading my $49K Ameritrade acct. showed $65K at the closing bell today. Rolled the dice with Permian-basin CDEV at .25 a share and a few other solid companies also distressed by Covid, Russia/Saudi, etc. OIL, baby. It's up, it's down. It's like a prize fight. But ya gotta get in the ring!
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Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 8,342 Likes: 3
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 8,342 Likes: 3 |
Out state economist projected 10% unemployment through 2021 easing in 2022. We have some rough sledding ahead for 18-24 months. I imagine we are at 20% unemployment today as a wild guess. S&P probably has a 18-22 PE ratio, which is pretty high in my opinion.
"Life is tough, even tougher if your stupid"
John Wayne
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Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 10,430 Likes: 7
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 10,430 Likes: 7 |
I am 50% in AMZN and 40% in GOOG.
Inflation?
Bring it on.
There is nothing noble in being superior to your fellow man; true nobility is being superior to your former self. -Ernest Hemingway
The man who makes no mistakes does not usually make anything.-- Edward John Phelps
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Joined: May 2011
Posts: 7,515 Likes: 1
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: May 2011
Posts: 7,515 Likes: 1 |
Absolutely SN. We're in for tough times.
There is no rhyme or reason to much of this, but while this iron is hot its getting thoroughly beaten.
It's also one reason that I'm quickly in and out of stocks that I really want to hold long term. Right now there isn't much point in holding what will be right back down in a week. Too much meat left on the bone.
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Joined: Jun 2005
Posts: 8,899
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Jun 2005
Posts: 8,899 |
One man with courage makes a majority....
~Molɔ̀ːn Labé Skýla~
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Joined: Dec 2003
Posts: 86,355 Likes: 35
Campfire Oracle
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Campfire Oracle
Joined: Dec 2003
Posts: 86,355 Likes: 35 |
Dow Jones has made back half of the drop from the high.
I’ve said it before. This chinaflu will end, Trump gets re-elected, and the market roars.
Dow will be 35K by Christmas. Book it.
If you take the time it takes, it takes less time.
--Pat Parelli
American by birth; Alaskan by choice.
--ironbender
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Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 23,375 Likes: 2
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 23,375 Likes: 2 |
The DOW today stands almost exactly where it was 12 months ago.
Think about that........
"The Democrat Party looks like Titanic survivors. Partying and celebrating one moment, and huddled in lifeboats freezing the next". Hatari 2017
"Hokey religions and ancient weapons are no match for a good blaster at your side, kid." Han Solo
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Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 28,411
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 28,411 |
Dow Jones has made back half of the drop from the high.
I’ve said it before. This chinaflu will end, Trump gets re-elected, and the market roars.
Dow will be 35K by Christmas. Book it.
Which Christmas, Bender ?
The degree of my privacy is no business of yours.
What we've learned from history is that we haven't learned from it.
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Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 11,831 Likes: 3
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 11,831 Likes: 3 |
Was on a conference call this morn with some so called experts from a major investment firm.
They were slightly bullish. They think the Dow will completely recover in 12-18 months. Actually it’s done 50% of that already.
Some stocks, hospitality, airlines as examples will struggle for longer time.
NRA Patron
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Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 28,411
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 28,411 |
The DOW today stands almost exactly where it was 12 months ago.
Think about that........ Barring a resurgence of Co-19, we’ve seen the bottom. If Trump isn’t re-elected, gtfo for a while.
The degree of my privacy is no business of yours.
What we've learned from history is that we haven't learned from it.
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Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 30,309 Likes: 4
Campfire 'Bwana
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Campfire 'Bwana
Joined: Oct 2000
Posts: 30,309 Likes: 4 |
I’ll be curious to see what happens after the next earnings come out. I think some of what we’re seeing right now is the irrational exuberance of a mild bull market. I don’t think the bears are out of the woods yet...
“Perfection is Achieved Not When There Is Nothing More to Add, But When There Is Nothing Left to Take Away” Antoine de Saint-Exupery
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Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 24,398 Likes: 18
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 24,398 Likes: 18 |
I ve made a killing in oil related stocks the past week. Enough to pay for a new truck. Hope it keeps up
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Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 24,398 Likes: 18
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 24,398 Likes: 18 |
APA has been very good to me.
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Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 40,179
Campfire 'Bwana
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Campfire 'Bwana
Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 40,179 |
I ve made a killing in oil related stocks the past week. Enough to pay for a new truck. Hope it keeps up good show
Son of a liberal: " What did you do in the War On Terror, Daddy?"
Liberal father: " I fought the Americans, along with all the other liberals."
MOLON LABE
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Joined: Nov 2015
Posts: 4,859
Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: Nov 2015
Posts: 4,859 |
Was on a conference call this morn with some so called experts from a major investment firm.
They were slightly bullish. They think the Dow will completely recover in 12-18 months. Actually it’s done 50% of that already.
Some stocks, hospitality, airlines as examples will struggle for longer time. My reply would’ve been: “Guys, that is fantastic news to hear. Listen, we want to go after money on the sidelines right now, and we feel people are eager to jump back in, so would it be asking too much for you guys to produce some charts for us, that shows the last time we had a minimum drop of 4.8% in GDP with no fewer than 26+MIL on unemployment produce the 12-18 month turnaround you just described, so we can utilize those charts?” Oh…to hear the dead silence on the other end….would have been gold….
"He is far from Stupid"
”person, who happens to have an above-average level of intelligence”
– DocRocket (In reference to ElkSlayer91)
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Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 24,398 Likes: 18
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 24,398 Likes: 18 |
Was on a conference call this morn with some so called experts from a major investment firm.
They were slightly bullish. They think the Dow will completely recover in 12-18 months. Actually it’s done 50% of that already.
Some stocks, hospitality, airlines as examples will struggle for longer time. My reply would’ve been: “Guys, that is fantastic news to hear. Listen, we want to go after money on the sidelines right now, and we feel people are eager to jump back in, so would it be asking too much for you guys to produce some charts for us, that shows the last time we had a minimum drop of 4.8% in GDP with no fewer than 26+MIL on unemployment produce the 12-18 month turnaround you just described, so we can utilize those charts?” Oh…to hear the dead silence on the other end….would have been gold…. I think you underestimate the American spirit under Trump.
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Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 11,831 Likes: 3
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 11,831 Likes: 3 |
[quote=dale06]Was on a conference call this morn with some so called experts from a major investment firm.
They were slightly bullish. They think the Dow will completely recover in 12-18 months. Actually it’s done 50% of that already.
Some stocks, hospitality, airlines as examples will struggle for longer time. My reply would’ve been: “Guys, that is fantastic news to hear. Listen, we want to go after money on the sidelines right now, and we feel people are eager to jump back in, so would it be asking too much for you guys to produce some charts for us, that shows the last time we had a minimum drop of 4.8% in GDP with no fewer than 26+MIL on unemployment produce the 12-18 month turnaround you just described, so we can utilize those charts?” Oh…to hear the dead silence on the other end….would have been gold…. I’m not saying they’re right, and I’m less bullish. I would expect their answer to your question to be, “under those conditions you mention, the DOW is up roughly 6000 points since its bottom 4-5 weeks ago, and that about 30%.”
NRA Patron
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Joined: Nov 2015
Posts: 4,859
Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: Nov 2015
Posts: 4,859 |
Was on a conference call this morn with some so called experts from a major investment firm.
They were slightly bullish. They think the Dow will completely recover in 12-18 months. Actually it’s done 50% of that already.
Some stocks, hospitality, airlines as examples will struggle for longer time. My reply would’ve been: “Guys, that is fantastic news to hear. Listen, we want to go after money on the sidelines right now, and we feel people are eager to jump back in, so would it be asking too much for you guys to produce some charts for us, that shows the last time we had a minimum drop of 4.8% in GDP with no fewer than 26+MIL on unemployment produce the 12-18 month turnaround you just described, so we can utilize those charts?” Oh…to hear the dead silence on the other end….would have been gold…. I think you underestimate the American spirit under Trump. It is "impossible" to underestimate the "cold hard facts", the numbers. Spirit and rah rahs with signs can only push a market so far....when tens of millions of people, and counting, are unemployed. Once the market realizes the numbers are "real", you better hope you're not holding a bad hand when the market opens 20-25 % below your stop, and drops another 10% before your position is picked up by a buyer....if there are any buyers. Glad you made some quick money. I just hope you don't get caught in a corner when the market realizes, "OK, this is real"....like when the REPO starts doling out several more TRILLIONS, to purchase bad paper, to keep this Ponzi scheme afloat. There's always a "wall".....
"He is far from Stupid"
”person, who happens to have an above-average level of intelligence”
– DocRocket (In reference to ElkSlayer91)
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Joined: Jun 2005
Posts: 8,899
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Jun 2005
Posts: 8,899 |
Goodyear Tire and Rubber (Lawton) has started building one code tire and is selling rubber to other industries. They will start another code next week. Their stock is up 30% from this past month...
One man with courage makes a majority....
~Molɔ̀ːn Labé Skýla~
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