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Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 4,981 Likes: 10
Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 4,981 Likes: 10 |
Good comments, and some humor as well. Folks going stupid around here, hoarding TP, etc. Panic is far worse than what will come with CV, but the fallout, business lost followed by job loss will sting, at least short term, and affect consumer and investor confidence. It's taken a good hit already, but I think we are in for more........no doubt no one can predict or time the market. Who saw this black swan coming? Just like 2008, and 911, etc.
I do believe like the past, history shows a strong likelihood this will eventually pass and the markets will recover. Agree with those nearing retirement to play it safe. The lower it goes, the more risks is removed for any new capital. The crash of 2008 was totally predictable. It was predicated by policies initiated in the Clinton administration. I think Bush knew it was going to crash but hoped it would hold off until after the first of the year when the magic negroe would be president. 911 was a different story.
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Joined: Sep 2013
Posts: 18,209 Likes: 39
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Sep 2013
Posts: 18,209 Likes: 39 |
We've already seen the bottom. I respect your intellect and posts more than a little. I hope you are correct. I fear you may be mistaken on this one.
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Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 31,218 Likes: 10
Campfire 'Bwana
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Campfire 'Bwana
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 31,218 Likes: 10 |
We've already seen the bottom. I respect your intellect and posts more than a little. I hope you are correct. I fear you may be mistaken on this one. Yes, I could be wrong. But at this point, it's my best guess. Trump is listening to the right people and doing the right things. One March Madness was cancelled, which was not a Trump actions, to me, that signaled we were near peak news. At that point, there's no one else to tell.
Last edited by antelope_sniper; 03/14/20.
You didn't use logic or reason to get into this opinion, I cannot use logic or reason to get you out of it.
You cannot over estimate the unimportance of nearly everything. John Maxwell
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Joined: Dec 2013
Posts: 13,248 Likes: 15
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Dec 2013
Posts: 13,248 Likes: 15 |
We've already seen the bottom. Hope you're right. On Thursday I bought some Alaska Air and Carnival Cruise. Also some SLV. Silver was about 100 to 1 on the gold ratio. But silver still took a dive Friday.
Patriotism (and religion) is the last refuge of a scoundrel.
Jesus: "Take heed that no man deceive you."
Hebrew Roots Judaizer
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Joined: May 2003
Posts: 31,299 Likes: 11
Campfire 'Bwana
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Campfire 'Bwana
Joined: May 2003
Posts: 31,299 Likes: 11 |
Whatever it is, it won't look NEARLY as nice as the Beach Angel one in the Boob Survey...
Cleverly disguised as a responsible adult.
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Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 10,855
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 10,855 |
When do you think it will bottom, and how low do you feel it will go?
Seen in Y2K, 2001-2002, and 2008 it get cut in half.
If you were buying, when would you begin.......and would you DCA and if so, how so? It lost about 4k in 2008 from 13k Closer to 1/3 19,500 would match that
Maker of the Frankenstud Sling Keeper
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Joined: Sep 2013
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Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Sep 2013
Posts: 18,209 Likes: 39 |
When do you think it will bottom, and how low do you feel it will go?
Seen in Y2K, 2001-2002, and 2008 it get cut in half.
If you were buying, when would you begin.......and would you DCA and if so, how so? It lost about 4k in 2008 from 13k Closer to 1/3 19,500 would match that 14k October 2007 to 6.5k March 2009.
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Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 28,411
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 28,411 |
Might want to check out what Dr. Michael Burry is up to and I need to do the same. I made a butt load of money with that guy during the 2007-08 sub prime meltdown but it was one fuggin hairy ride for sure.
His hedge fund knocked the money ball out of the park. He’s only investing for himself and a small group of others since then and after he shut the fund down.
The degree of my privacy is no business of yours.
What we've learned from history is that we haven't learned from it.
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Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 31,218 Likes: 10
Campfire 'Bwana
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Campfire 'Bwana
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 31,218 Likes: 10 |
Might want to check out what Dr. Michael Burry is up to and I need to do the same. I made a butt load of money with that guy during the 2007-08 sub prime meltdown but it was one fuggin hairy ride for sure.
His hedge fund knocked the money ball out of the park. He’s only investing for himself and a small group of others since then and after he shut the fund down. He shorted this market a while back. He wasn't wrong, he was just early.
You didn't use logic or reason to get into this opinion, I cannot use logic or reason to get you out of it.
You cannot over estimate the unimportance of nearly everything. John Maxwell
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Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 1,367 Likes: 2
Campfire Regular
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Campfire Regular
Joined: Dec 2017
Posts: 1,367 Likes: 2 |
RE OP Topic: It’s the same as asking who wants to predict the top. How about predicting where the market is in 3 years, how about 5 years from today. Remember volatility works both ways as last Friday surely showed. The stock market (equities) is a great place to make money over time, but you need to have at least two-three years living expenses in liquidity (cash) on hand to weather the downside, hold on to your current assets and take advantage of buys for the future uptick. It’s not for everyone and hard to stomach when modest investors portfolios devalue $500K-$1.0M in a few days, especially if your contemplating retirement or are living off of current investment income. The key is playing the market for long positions and keeping significant cash on the side. Of course the companies you hold assets in should have low debt and large cash balance sheets after dividends paid at years end. Chin up it will move forward again over time.
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Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 28,411
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 28,411 |
Might want to check out what Dr. Michael Burry is up to and I need to do the same. I made a butt load of money with that guy during the 2007-08 sub prime meltdown but it was one fuggin hairy ride for sure.
His hedge fund knocked the money ball out of the park. He’s only investing for himself and a small group of others since then and after he shut the fund down. He shorted this market a while back. He wasn't wrong, he was just early. What time frame are you talking about ?
The degree of my privacy is no business of yours.
What we've learned from history is that we haven't learned from it.
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Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 16,512
Campfire Ranger
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OP
Campfire Ranger
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 16,512 |
No doubt, investing in equities, for most (not traders) is a long-term proposition to cut risk and realize potential. No one knows the timing or tops and bottoms, but a lot of folks get a fairly educated (via experience) of trends.....I personally think the pain of what is going on with CV19 is not going away anytime soon, and likely not hit it's peak intensity. If that is correct, it could well be that the markets will go lower......
Yes, I do agree, based on history, this will rebound back, and it's currently all about fear, though it could perhaps spark a recession, certainly 2020 profits will drop for many businesses. All that means less the further out you look for long-term investing.
Having seen several major corrections before of +/- 50% ...........we have a ways to go to get there. Not placing any best, but I'd not be shocked to see 18.........and even 15-16......on the Dow. Speaking of which, you folks looking more at the Dow or S&P as an indicator? Do you feel Nasdaq will lead the way when the markets ultimately recover?
On DCA, do you folks do a set timing or pick down days to buy into on intervals? Great comments folks, thanks for sharing your thoughts.
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Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 964
Campfire Regular
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Campfire Regular
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Will they let the stock brokers trade..................doesn't the floor of the stock exchange hold more than 500 people?
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Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 966
Campfire Regular
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Campfire Regular
Joined: Dec 2004
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Not sure why everyone looks so much at the DOW, other than the news media is constantly talking about it. I pay more attention to the S&P which reflects a much more broader swath of the overall market. I'm certain we have a good bit further down to go and that there will be significant economic effects from the pandemic situation combined with other aspects of the world economy that aren't going away soon. Sure we may get a good bounce but this is not going to be over anytime soon unless someone comes up with a way to prevent or treat the virus soon and even then there will be lasting economic and political impacts.
~Molɔ̀ːn Labé Skýla~
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Joined: Sep 2004
Posts: 17,478 Likes: 4
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Sep 2004
Posts: 17,478 Likes: 4 |
Winner, winner, chicken dinner! Just my opinion and not based on anything but I think it will bottom out about 20,000 and be up to 30,000 by year's end. But, I hope ‘sniper is right. We've already seen the bottom.
“Live free or die. Death is not the worst of evils.” - General John Stark.
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Joined: Jan 2004
Posts: 10,339 Likes: 4
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Jan 2004
Posts: 10,339 Likes: 4 |
I worry less about the Dow than corn, and soybeans, and fat cattle. This here. I'm thinking once China gets itself straightened out the commodities will come back around. Folks still gotta eat, and the Corona isn't gonna kill that many.
Black Cows Matter!
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Joined: May 2003
Posts: 16,972 Likes: 2
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: May 2003
Posts: 16,972 Likes: 2 |
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Joined: Jan 2004
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Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Jan 2004
Posts: 10,339 Likes: 4 |
Just my opinion and not based on anything but I think it will bottom out about 20,000 and be up to 30,000 by year's end. My thoughts too. Hoping we're right.
Black Cows Matter!
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Joined: Dec 2006
Posts: 4,121
Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: Dec 2006
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Not sure why everyone looks so much at the DOW, other than the news media is constantly talking about it. I pay more attention to the S&P which reflects a much more broader swath of the overall market. I'm certain we have a good bit further down to go and that there will be significant economic effects from the pandemic situation combined with other aspects of the world economy that aren't going away soon. Sure we may get a good bounce but this is not going to be over anytime soon unless someone comes up with a way to prevent or treat the virus soon and even then there will be lasting economic and political impacts. Vaccine is well ahead of schedule and should be in testing in 2 weeks. That was a news report I was listening too on the way home on Thursday
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