Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire Stock Market - Who wants to predict the bottom?

When do you think it will bottom, and how low do you feel it will go?

Seen in Y2K, 2001-2002, and 2008 it get cut in half.

If you were buying, when would you begin.......and would you DCA and if so, how so?

I'm just riding along. I have 3 to 4 years left to work. Not going to lock in a loss. If it goes down by half, I might put in half my cash if I'm still working.

Hard to guess but not sure how dollar cost averaging in would be a bad call.

At this point it hard to say how much of this is priced in.

i moved all my tax sheltered equity holdings into cash/bonds on 2/14. i will move back in when the dow is around 18 or mid-may unless schit seems really bad, which i doubt. i invest in vanguard index and target date funds mainly and only one individual stock which is minor. i am not a pig and not a market timer. i just don't want to see my portfolio go in half like it did in 2008. i am between 1-3 years from retirement. as for my non-tax deferred holdings, i kept them so i wouldn't take a tax hit and am continuing to invest twice monthly to dollar cost average some of this pain away.

and i have a garage full of toilet paper and 22 ammo so there's that.

"They" do not ring a bell at the peak, nor does a bell ring at the bottom.

23,185.62

I don't think it will get lower than 14k, 12k is my absolute worst case guess. I thought of buying some yesterday but I'm still hesitant. If it hits 18k I'll probably start buying there for sure.

Bb

I've got this........the bottom is 0. learned that in 1st grade.

Looking for 17k, then index funds.

Just my opinion and not based on anything but I think it will bottom out about 20,000 and be up to 30,000 by year's end.

Good comments, and some humor as well. Folks going stupid around here, hoarding TP, etc. Panic is far worse than what will come with CV, but the fallout, business lost followed by job loss will sting, at least short term, and affect consumer and investor confidence. It's taken a good hit already, but I think we are in for more........no doubt no one can predict or time the market. Who saw this black swan coming? Just like 2008, and 911, etc.

I do believe like the past, history shows a strong likelihood this will eventually pass and the markets will recover. Agree with those nearing retirement to play it safe. The lower it goes, the more risks is removed for any new capital.

I was thinking 15K, but slowmover12's 17K might be the better call.

The disruption will be temporary (6mo - 1yr?), if Big Brother helps prevent all the loan defaults, I think we will bounce back pdq.

Just guessing though.

As are most.

The disruption is real, even if covid -19 turns out to be way overblown (as most of our experts here opine).

Nothing would surprise me at this point - but the situation isn’t resolving tomorrow, and we are a long way from max pain in my opinion.

I hope I’m wrong.

The market crashed in 1929 and bounced right back about 1953.

I'll take a WAG - 18,300 on the dow in June 18th

I hope it's no worse than that anyway.

I worry less about the Dow than corn, and soybeans, and fat cattle.

My guess is 14,000-15,000. So far I moved 10% back in end of Feb and another 5% back in at about 23,000. Still have 25% out but have to be careful as I can only make 2 moves a month with our 401k.

We've already seen the bottom.

I can't answer what level it will drop to. But it sure as hell will rebound and this one I think will rebound fast. Its based purely on one fear.

Yes I would DCA and buying sound businesses. I would stay as far away from Oil and Gas as possible.