Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire Stock Market - Who wants to predict the bottom?

After '29 it took 20 years to match the high. After 1965, it took 30 years to hit 7,880 again. After 1999 it took 14 years. People freak because they'd like to make up what they lost before they need it. How'd you like to have retired in January thinking you were doing good enough with a million or 2 only to wake up in March to see you've lost a third of that nest egg? And that even if you never spent another dime, it would take 20-30 years to get it back?

Bloomberg financial reported today that during the last 7 trading days short sellers profited over $50 BILLION.

Good stuff. Folks I appreciate Everyone’s opinion and input here. Interesting discussion and I view all to have merit and respect all who have replied. Appreciate all on the site to try keeping things civil and not attacking others. Sorry but I see no reason why peace cannot be had by all. I understand some are invested all in and stressed.

I firmly believe this virus will be dealt with and sooner than later. Hope I’m right. I may be wrong. I can see worst case that a scenario like Elk91 playing out. If the virus lingers and half our country shut down to control it, no doubt the downturn in our market and the economy will linger. That said currently people are talking right now that discussions may be underway to dial things back. Opening up some of the economy depending on specific locations infection numbers.

Time will tell. We all want a healthy strong economy and stock market. I’m confident time will sort this out. Perhaps much better and sooner than some historic times like the Great Depression. Emotions have understandably gone high but also may have overshot what the future will show how this plays out. Again may. Perhaps not. We will see. Thanks everyone for participating. Let’s all be nice to everyone. Thanks.

The beauty of rentals is you can index rents to inflation. Also the old rules of supply and demand still apply.
Wasn't long ago a poster was advocating mortgaging your home in order to have money for the market..... that advice didn't age well
Oh and that same poster said the other day he was putting off buying a new car due to current events... hahahahaha

Then you were a fool to be invested in volatile stocks at retirement. And a bigger fool to not sell in Feb when the Chinese economy went in the toilet.

Even a dumbass broke dick like me knows retirement is the time for low yield, safe investments.

Volatile stocks and fast growth funds are for the young investor with lots of time to recover losses. And for the unabashedly greedy.

Any student of history knows what goes up must come down.

Young as in under 30? Really?
LOL!

What will you do when half your tenants get laid off?

Tenants? Under thirty?

WTF are you talking about?

Elkslayer,

The federal government is sending a helicopter to your home to pick you up and take you directly to the White House so that you can advise the President on how to save the nation. They have heard of the vast knowledge that you have acquired as a c-level executive and are in awe of what you are posting on the internet.

Please dress in your best attire and be prepared to stay a few weeks. Your nation needs you............

What you appear to be saying is that anyone over 30 is a fool to invest in stocks. Are you serious?

Next paragraph (New paragraphs usually indicate the beginning of new trains of thought) - What are you going to do when your tenants default on their leases?

Got some AAPL at 220 today, sold most at 224

I'm almost to the point of starting to put my money back in. one more week...

Couple that with "retirement is the time for low yield safe investments."

If you want my definition of "lots of time to recover losses", that would be ten to fifteen years before retirement. Age 50 to 55. That is about typical recovery time for modern recessions.

I was taught early: Gamble what you can afford to lose, because there is a good chance you will.

And I still have no idea what you are talking about tenants. I sure as hell do not own any rental properties.

I would guess that someone who does, then has disposable assets to get him through times of famine and pestilence.

I think very few of the billionaires in the world got that way by holding onto stock in a plummeting market. They got that way by buying low and selling high.

Dead cat bounce?

The only thing I remember from Finance 101--------"Cash is King"

Idaho_Shooter got it right!

He is talking about me. Yet I have been through the 2008 crash and well never lost a rent payment yet. If you screen your tenants you can figure out pretty easy who will and who won't pay. My first tenant showed up at my property in 2005 in a 1990-93? Honda Civic. He and his wife both had jobs at large established businesses. Ran a credit check on them both great credit. Paid for a background check on them. Clean there as well. Never a single problem. I did have one issue that I won't call a problem. I bought a house with an existing tenant in there. I carried out the remaining lease with her. She was late on two payments. She paid me the rent plus the late fee the first time. I told her I don't need the late fee, clearly she wasn't in a good place and me collecting the late fee isn't going to help her or me in the long run. She was late again one other time and I told her pay me as soon as you can. Shortly after I hired a Property management company as I was away they kicked her out after about 6 months for complaints by the neighbor. Other than that no problems and no drama. But I do my due diligence and I screen my tenants.

I bought almost $25,000 of Royal Dutch Shell b stock last Wednesday at $21.80 a share. I wanted to hold it like 15 years and reinvest the dividends. I was worried afterwards because it dropped to about $19.50 that same day. Today its $30.40 a share. Do I sell and make a quick $9,000 or stay with the plan?

I tried to buy Boeing that day at $89 too but my broker talked me out of it. Maybe it'll all hit new lows tomorrow. These wild swings tempt me to day trade a little.

Bb

MY Guess.........anything you buy here..........and hold, will be profits....in the not too distant future.........if it's a quality company / investment.

But, it May be a 'Sucker's Rally' and we may test new lows........this 'bear market' might last awhile you never know. The only real drivers, IMHO, is the Covid-19, and the fact that a bubble was blown into the stratosphere for 11 years.......almost unprecedented. Obama Financial Engineering, immediately followed by REAL Growth in GDP, Employment numbers, etc. under President Trump. This pandemic will end......what else happens or next is anyone's guess. That said, Warren Buffet said, don't bet against America.....and I have always said, Don't bet against Trump.

Given a 2nd term, America stands to do more winning, if I had to place my bet.

I would bail out now. O&G is the worst place to be in the market now.

Hang in there BB.

And get a new Broker. That Boeing stock is worth almost twice that today! I wasn't trading the last few days, but If I'd have seen Boeing under $100, I would have bought.

I have picked up some O&G on the drop (OXY, MRO, etc.) and will hold 'em. They'll pay off.

Drop your broker. Boeing at $89? Thats a no brainer.If a broker talked you out of Boeing at $89 schitcan him. Thats a fuggin crime!!! Ive only lost money with brokers. You're capable of doing it yourself. I picked up a 1000 shares of Boeing last week and and 2000 of Alaska, clr and Exxon. I cashed out today. I take my profits and sell and slowly invest in established dividend stocks, Id sell in a minute if up over 30 per cent in this market. Reassess market and once it drops re invest. Im in short term on energy related stocks in this economy. Once this economy is stabilized picking up some energy stock with dividend for the long term.I have picked up and have held Exxon, Alaskan air and Boeing for the long term. Hope to pick up more on big drops.

BTW Im not an expert. That Boeing advice was really stupid IMO