Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire Stock Market - Who wants to predict the bottom?

Catching a falling knife gives me the chills..... good luck men

I'm already regretting buying so much shell at once. Broker woke me up with.the call and put full pressure on while I was groggy. I should have bought some smaller chunks and DCA the way down. I'm still sitting on a decent amount of cash but I'm making smaller more frequent purchases and going into some other sectors with it.

Wake me up when McDonalds and coke dividends hit the 6% range.

We may see 12000 sooner than I thought. I bought oil and energy too early today but it's a long term thing I'm going for.

Bb

Hell, I stopped playing after the tech bubble burst in 2000. Only two stocks I wished I'd have kept is the railroads, had enough of UP and BNSF to have kept me well off had I kept it. Sold them at 35.

Phil

It's still headed down, down & DOWN. It maybe 1929 time. They sure are throwing a bunch of money at it.

My Dow 1830 prediction seems a bit optimistic today. It's doesn't feel like capitulation yet.

After Warren Buffet went into railroads all that seemed to take off.....funny how that works. You might think he has some stroke in DC to fuel his holdings.......surely not? LOL. Hmmm.

C-Bob - I think they have thrown too much too quick at it, and that fact is only fueling more panic, my guess. As to catching a falling knife, today's action sure seems to indicate this downward spiral is not near over yet.........time will tell.

I'm actually buying a little bit at a time each week. Those were my targets to throw larger amounts, but seeing what's going on leads me to believe I set the numbers for MSFT and AAPL too high for an all-in buy....

Wheres the best place to have an IRA to do low fee stock trades. I had a bunch in Edward Jones but their fees are way too high. After my trade this morning where I thought the fee was too high i find out there was another almost 2 percent commission on the trade.

I told them to just send me a check for the $35000 or so I have in a cash account so I can open a lower trade fee IEA somewhere else. They were not happy but then they never are when I do what's best for me. Good sign it's time to leave when your making poor decisions to try to keep others happy.

I realized part of why I went against my judgement this morning and bought so much at once was because I was trying to avoid multiple high trade fees and pressure from my broker to hurry and decide. I still want to pick up some other income stocks but I want to do it in smaller blocks on the way done.

I've typically just done funds so I'm a bit nee at this but I've been waiting for an opportunity. Still thinking the dow could hit 12000 but if the virus gets under control in the next few months I'm optimistic things could come a long ways back fast.

I want solid income stocks I can reinvest the dividends on for about 15 years and then take the dividends after retirement. Which ones should I be watching? Currently watching McDonald's, P&G, Coke, Boeing, capital one, and a few Reits.

Bb

If you have a long view I think you will do well. I'll hopefully be retired this decade so I'm a little more cautious.

Fidelity is a good place to be. But there are others. You have to pick your poison. P&G is pretty solid. Of the bunch you listed it is the only one I would buy stock in. I have mutual funds that hold it and the others. But not something I would buy stock in. But like anything else ask a 100 people and you will get 99 different answers.

Burleyboy
I have a Schwab account, Fidelity, and have had Dean Witter and Ameritrade.
Schwab is the best by far. Both Schwab and Fidelity offer no cost trades. Not really no cost but you can buy 10,000 share of MSFT for under a dollar.
Schwab just has a better screen, easier to read and trade. I have 5 different accounts with Schwab, 401K, QRP, Roth, and regular taxable accounts.

When I log in it gives me the total of all, plus or minus for each time I log in, and profit or loss for each position. Plus with the right software I can trade both pre and after market.
Both offer stocks, mutual funds, and ETF's. The nice thing about ETF's is that you can sell any time during the day or have a stop in that takes you out of the position and you don't have to wait for the market close like mutual funds.

Don't DCA with ETF's

It is impossible to predict the absolute bottom or the duration, but I'd say we are near the bottom now. Valuations are now reasonable, so on a fundamental judgement, I believe it won't go much lower. BUT, panic selling can always rear its ugly head and the bottom may become bottomless assuming the worst in fear.

I've been metering cash back into the market over the past 2 weeks about $1,000-2,000/day, but when the DOW plummeted below 20,000 today, I bought about $9,000 in Caterpillar, Berkshire Hathaway B, and a mutual fund. I'll continue doing this.

The end of this week and next week will be interesting as more infections are counted and the chaos grows.

Guys, you are looking at this totally wrong. I will attempt to paint a picture here, with words, where you can see and understand the dire situation the legs of commerce are in.

You guys are looking for low valuations in a normal working environment (no legs of the 4 leg stool are broke), when “all 4 legs of commerce are functioning”, while you ignore the fact that all 4 legs of the stool are broke presently.

Truth is, every leg of commerce has a compound fracture presently.

Four legged stool of commerce:

1st leg – Retail customer
2nd leg – Storefront
3rd leg – Wholesaler
4th leg – Manufacturer (China-TREASONOUS)

The retail customers are losing their jobs, and some will be staring at BK.

The storefronts have been forced closed, and are staring at BK, and never to re-open.

The wholesalers are being forced close from ZERO inventory turnover, and ZERO orders, because the 1ST and 2ND legs are dead in the water, and they too are looking at BK, and never to re-open.

The manufacturers are being forced close in the USA from ZERO inventory turnover, and ZERO orders, and the ones in CHINA will have no orders, because the 1ST and 2ND and 3RD legs are dead in the water, and the manufacturers, too, are looking at BK, and who knows if they re-open.

In the above picture, how can anyone tell them self, that situation has the ability to produce profit, much less any revenue at all? BK ZEROS out your stock certificate FIRST.

A 30 day shutdown will BK over 50% of small businesses. Poof, gone forever.

And “if” “any of the lower 3 legs: 2,3,4, go to the government trough, that debt will hinder their ability to turn the correct margins in the future, to allow growth, and hire back unemployed workers.

It truly is “that” bad, and I cannot believe it hasn’t cascaded down yet, with the facts above known by everyone in business, and the financial markets.

And when it comes to the edge of the cliff, and falls over, it will not be pretty….at all.

You are looking at a picture of Financial Armageddon above. The artist just hasn’t put his name on it……yet.

If it were me, I would get out before you don’t have anything at all to survive with, through this Dark Age we are facing. It is truly uncharted waters for all 4 legs being destroyed.

I got out on the 17TH, when my position jumped back up 10%, because I know the above picture as facts, and so do YOU GUYS…now. You don’t fix that kind of destruction “overnight”, and that is why I finally bailed, because “numbers” do not lie. Math is math, and the numbers will not be making the math look good for a long time.

Quick analogy for you:

You have a 3 foot stick of pipe in your hand with flowing water. In one end, and out the other. The water represents commerce taking place. When the government screwed a cap on the end where water was coming out (Store front), what did that do to the “whole” chain of commerce?

It shut it completely down, right?

And now the government has screwed a cap on the other end, with a nipple, and they have attached an air hose, and are BLOWING MONEY into the pipe, as fast as they can, with no where for it to go (capped at both ends now-thus creating artificial commerce), because everything is at a dead stand still.

When the pipe gets to bursting pressure, what will your money be worth when it blows?

The bell just rang for class to end, and when the bell rings the markets open today, what will you do, now that you have a better picture?

I know business. I’m an ex C-Level executive, and have many C-Level friends who highly regard my business acumen. Hopefully I just proved it for you guys with the above.

Good luck guys, and may God watch over you, and your families.

Copyright © 2020 ElkSlayer91 All Rights Reserved.

I'm not a stock investor type but I have a couple possibly stupid questions.

Are there any smart money types predicting a possible "bounce back" timeline based on a worse case scenario picture?

I am aware there is little to find comparable with the following but I'm search for a comparison and coming up empty.
Is there anything here that may end up similar?
Trying to compare the Depression era to a World wide pandemic has got to be like comparing apples to semi-trucks but it's new turf we're tilling here and I'm just attempting to get my head wrapped around this stock market picture...



Wall Street lore and historical charts indicate that it took 25 years to recover from the stock market crash of 1929. However, some modern analysts dispute that view. In fact, the recovery from the low point, though not a steady climb, offered investors opportunities to make money and even recoup their losses from the crash much sooner than the 25-year mark.

Changes in Dow
The Dow Jones industrial average in 1929 did not maintain static membership. Some stocks were taken out of the average, and others were added. When the Dow reached its old peak 25 years later, it did so with different stocks than were in it during the crash. This means a comparison of Dow levels in 1929 and 25 years later is an apples-to-oranges comparison.

Individual Stocks
Some individual stocks recovered in four years, according to website Seeking Alpha. For example, Dow Chemical had recovered to the break-even point by 1933. Honeywell and 3M Recovered by 1936. The average time for stocks to recover was 12 years. While this certainly means some took longer, others took much less time.

Overall Market
Mark Hulbert, writing for "The New York Times," suggests that an investor could have fully recovered from the 1929 crash in four-and-one-half years. He bases his claim on the fact that deflation and inflation haven't been figured in to true stock values from the period, and the fact that dividends paid an average of 14 percent. In addition, he points out that the Dow is not the entire market, and that the broader market had some quick-recovery stocks in it.

Revival vs. Recovery
Though the market did not fully recover in 1930, it did go through a series of rallies and drops as it tried to mount a revival. New York Stock Exchange stocks recovered 73 percent of their losses in 1930. Each rally was met by a disappointing drop, but the market never went back to its 1929 state of chaos and panic.

Wow. Elk91-

That is bleak indeed! If this is where we are headed no doubt God help us all.

Trust me when I tell you, I did not enjoy writing it one damn bit. I've been watching so many of you guys here not use sound judgement, to factor in the true destruction of the commerce engine. I could not just sit back and watch, when I have the skillset to possibly help open your eyes.

The present condition of the commerce engine is a cracked block, broke crank, bent rods, and shattered pistons. (4 legs of the stool)

That is what a blown up race car engine looks like, with white milky oil leaking out of the drain pan, where a few rods tore through.

Yeah, it truly is "that" bad.

The government needs to turn 180*, and open the doors of commerce back up, and let the virus run its course, so herd immunity can start. You only get saved by building anti-bodies, or vaccine. There has never been a vaccine invented for a Corona virus, plus, it would take 3-5 years to inoculate 200 MIL citizens. You can't keep the economy shut for 3-5 years. 30 days alone will kill it.

The economy is on a ventilator right now as you read this, and only 50% of people come off alive.

I went by the bank yesterday before closing. I won't print what I found out there. I'll just say I had to race to another location before they closed, to conduct my transaction.

You lost your credibility when you said the virus will be stopped by sitting down to take a scheit.

91 - I agree about how this will have to take its course. Talk right now of some existing drugs having promise to treat it. Vaccine is a long term solution no doubt.