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Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Dec 2002
Posts: 26,102 Likes: 20 |
So as of today we have 19624 confirmed cases in the U.S. and 260 people have died.... for this we have collapsed our economy Your comment is non-sensical. For your comment to have validity we'd take the final numbers for cases and fatalities and plug them into that sentence. Then let's estimate the number of cases we prevented and the number of deaths we prevented and ask ourselves if the measures that proved harmful to our economy were worth it. When were you tested for COVID? A question that has occurred to me: If we collapse the world economy to deal with this disease, how many will die from other ailments due to the lack of proper care and an economy to support that care/prevention? I would think that that would have to be factored in as well. The world economy isn't going to "collapse" When we get over this hump we can build it right back to where it was. Based on what? Businesses will be destroyed. They can't just flip a switch and say "Just kidding." We did on Dec 7, 1941.
People who choose to brew up their own storms bitch loudest about the rain.
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Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Aug 2009
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Thank god an adult finally showed up...  Thanks DocR
Originally Posted by Judman
PS, if you think Trump is “good” you’re way stupider than I thought! Haha
Sorry, trump is a no tax payin pile of shiit.
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Campfire Ranger
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Joined: Dec 2002
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Okay, let me inject a bit of reality--or perhaps immunological science--into the discussion. And I speak from the perspective of my medical and advanced (postgraduate) biochemistry and immunology training.
To say humans have "zero immunity" to COVID-19 is NONSENSE. The very name of this bug tells us it's the 19th bug in this family of bugs, and every one of us has developed antibodies to many, if not most of the previous 18 coronaviruses (MERS, SARS, and a couple others being the exception, since most of us haven't been exposed to them).
SOoooo... this means that you have antibodies that recognize parts of the antigen(s) on the surface of the COVID-19 particles. So your immune system, once it recognizes the virus as kindasorta familiar, immune cells start churning out antibodies at exponential rates and the virus is under serious attack.
THIS IS WHY PEOPLE GET NO SYMPTOMS TO THE INFECTION, and MOST people have minimal symptoms.
The 2 reasons the COVID-19 pandemic is a concern are because:
1) this virus is reallly, really, really infectious... so it spread fast; and
2) people with less robust immune systems, or people with comorbid conditions that compromise their ability to fight the effects of the virus in their respiratory systems, cannot reduce the impact of the infection in time to prevent serious illness.
Doubling rates vary by region. Worst case scenarios have doubling rates under 2 days. As of 2 days ago, the doubling rate in the USA as a whole was estimated at 4-6 days by seriously involved epidemiologists.
A slight correction from the uneducated gallery. https://www.statnews.com/2020/02/11/disease-caused-by-the-novel-coronavirus-has-name-covid-19/Alissa Eckert, Dan Higgins/CDC
The disease caused by the novel coronavirus has a name: Covid-19.
Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, the director-general of the World Health Organization, announced the name Tuesday, giving a specific identifier to a disease that has been confirmed in more than 42,000 people and caused more than 1,000 deaths in China. There have been fewer than 400 cases in 24 other countries, with one death.
In choosing the name, WHO advisers focused simply on the type of virus that causes the disease. Co and Vi come from coronavirus, Tedros explained, with D meaning disease and 19 standing for 2019, the year the first cases were seen.
The virus that causes the disease has been known provisionally as 2019-nCoV. Also on Tuesday, a coronavirus group from the International Committee on Taxonomy of Viruses, which is responsible for naming new viruses, proposed designating the novel coronavirus as SARS-CoV-2, according to a preprint of a paper posted online. (Preprints are versions of papers that have not yet been peer-reviewed or published in a scientific journal.) The name reflects the genetic similarities between the new coronavirus and the coronavirus that caused the SARS outbreak of 2002-2003. The preexisting immunity might not be as prevalent as we would wish.
People who choose to brew up their own storms bitch loudest about the rain.
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Campfire Ranger
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I know many here think it is a liberal ruse, and that COVID-19 won't amount to much. And, I am not a fear monger. But I am a realist.
It's called "Novel" coronavirus, because humans have zero immunity to it. That means, with no intervention (we continue life as usual), we can expect exponential growth. Okay, let me inject a bit of reality--or perhaps immunological science--into the discussion. And I speak from the perspective of my medical and advanced (postgraduate) biochemistry and immunology training. To say humans have "zero immunity" to COVID-19 is NONSENSE. The very name of this bug tells us it's the 19th bug in this family of bugs, and every one of us has developed antibodies to many, if not most of the previous 18 coronaviruses (MERS, SARS, and a couple others being the exception, since most of us haven't been exposed to them). SOoooo... this means that you have antibodies that recognize parts of the antigen(s) on the surface of the COVID-19 particles. So your immune system, once it recognizes the virus as kindasorta familiar, immune cells start churning out antibodies at exponential rates and the virus is under serious attack. THIS IS WHY PEOPLE GET NO SYMPTOMS TO THE INFECTION, and MOST people have minimal symptoms. The 2 reasons the COVID-19 pandemic is a concern are because: 1) this virus is reallly, really, really infectious... so it spread fast; and 2) people with less robust immune systems, or people with comorbid conditions that compromise their ability to fight the effects of the virus in their respiratory systems, cannot reduce the impact of the infection in time to prevent serious illness.
....This trend will continue. But it may be positively impacted by self-quarantine, etc.
The exponential rates that this virus is taking hold here mean, infections and deaths will double roughly every 3 days.
Doubling rates vary by region. Worst case scenarios have doubling rates under 2 days. As of 2 days ago, the doubling rate in the USA as a whole was estimated at 4-6 days by seriously involved epidemiologists. DocR, I think the (19) in COVID-19 ISN’T there because it’s the “19th Bug” rather this disease started in 2019. Per every med journal or article I have read in the last couple of weeks....You are correct in that we do have underlying immune response to help fight this. 😎
Curiosity Killed the Cat & The Prairie Dog
“Molon Labe”
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Campfire Ranger
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Idaho Shooter.,. you're right, and I shot from the lip in my original comment. I'm doing too much at one time these days. I have corrected it.
My primary point remains, i.e., that most of us have some immune capability to fight this virus back. This is why I take exception to the doomsayers proclaiming "humanity has zero immunity to COVID-19!!". It's simply not true.
"I'm gonna have to science the schit out of this." Mark Watney, Sol 59, Mars
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Campfire Ranger
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Joined: Sep 2006
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Beaver, yes, and my brain fart in my original comment has been corrected.
"I'm gonna have to science the schit out of this." Mark Watney, Sol 59, Mars
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Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 24,405 Likes: 18 |
Idaho Shooter.,. you're right, and I shot from the lip in my original comment. I'm doing too much at one time these days. I have corrected it.
My primary point remains, i.e., that most of us have some immune capability to fight this virus back. This is why I take exception to the doomsayers proclaiming "humanity has zero immunity to COVID-19!!". It's simply not true. appreciate medical advice from a professional instead of a quick google search
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Joined: Dec 2002
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Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Dec 2002
Posts: 26,102 Likes: 20 |
Idaho Shooter.,. you're right, and I shot from the lip in my original comment. I'm doing too much at one time these days. I have corrected it.
My primary point remains, i.e., that most of us have some immune capability to fight this virus back. This is why I take exception to the doomsayers proclaiming "humanity has zero immunity to COVID-19!!". It's simply not true. appreciate medical advice from a professional instead of a quick google search I don't think anybody is claiming the human body has no ability to fight this virus. It is obvious that most do fight it, quite successfully. The problem created by the total absence of any PREEXISTING immunity in the human population is: We must become infected BEFORE our system can initiate that immune response. And during the course of that infection, we are contagious. Whether we are symptomatic or not, whether we cure ourself or we die from the disease we have transmitted it to others we come into contact with. And if I read DocRocket's post correctly, we are agreed on this point.
People who choose to brew up their own storms bitch loudest about the rain.
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Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 31,222 Likes: 10
Campfire 'Bwana
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Campfire 'Bwana
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 31,222 Likes: 10 |
Idaho Shooter.,. you're right, and I shot from the lip in my original comment. I'm doing too much at one time these days. I have corrected it.
My primary point remains, i.e., that most of us have some immune capability to fight this virus back. This is why I take exception to the doomsayers proclaiming "humanity has zero immunity to COVID-19!!". It's simply not true. If we had "zero immunity" the death rate would be 100%. That's clearly not the case, so we have some immune response. Although this is a novel virus to us, it's not the first corona type virus our systems have encountered. Not by a long shot.
You didn't use logic or reason to get into this opinion, I cannot use logic or reason to get you out of it.
You cannot over estimate the unimportance of nearly everything. John Maxwell
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Campfire Outfitter
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So as of today we have 19624 confirmed cases in the U.S. and 260 people have died.... for this we have collapsed our economy Your comment is non-sensical. For your comment to have validity we'd take the final numbers for cases and fatalities and plug them into that sentence. Then let's estimate the number of cases we prevented and the number of deaths we prevented and ask ourselves if the measures that proved harmful to our economy were worth it. When were you tested for COVID? A question that has occurred to me: If we collapse the world economy to deal with this disease, how many will die from other ailments due to the lack of proper care and an economy to support that care/prevention? I would think that that would have to be factored in as well. The world economy isn't going to "collapse" When we get over this hump we can build it right back to where it was. Based on what? Businesses will be destroyed. They can't just flip a switch and say "Just kidding." We did on Dec 7, 1941. No. Industry had been ramped up, not shut down. I'm just asking why we don't consider all of the ramification. There is much more to be looked at and weighed.
Broncos are officially the worst team in the nation this year.
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Campfire 'Bwana
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Campfire 'Bwana
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 45,500 Likes: 29 |
Places are gonna burn after shelter in place for 2 weeks turns into a month and money runs out for people. Business boarding up knowing the looting is a couple weeks away....Prediction? Shîts gonna get very real is some places.
😎 Is Voodoo Donuts still open? Seems to me they are "essential" to life if one lives in Potlandia. Something to cheer one up after dealing with the street urchins and druggies? If it's shut down, they better board it up good, because when the druggies get a sugar craving their going to go there first for a fix. Geno
The desert is a true treasure for him who seeks refuge from men and the evil of men.
In it is contentment
In it is death and all you seek
(Quoted from "The Bleeding of the Stone" Ibrahim Al-Koni)
member of the cabal of dysfunctional squirrels?
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Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: Jun 2013
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I know many here think it is a liberal ruse, and that COVID-19 won't amount to much. And, I am not a fear monger. But I am a realist.
It's called "Novel" coronavirus, because humans have zero immunity to it. That means, with no intervention (we continue life as usual), we can expect exponential growth. Okay, let me inject a bit of reality--or perhaps immunological science--into the discussion. And I speak from the perspective of my medical and advanced (postgraduate) biochemistry and immunology training. To say humans have "zero immunity" to COVID-19 is NONSENSE. The bug belongs to a family of viruses that every one of us has developed antibodies to. Many, if not most of the previous coronaviruses (MERS, SARS, and a couple others being the exception, since most of us haven't been exposed to them) have been around for a long time. SOoooo... this means that you have antibodies that recognize parts of the antigen(s) on the surface of the COVID-19 particles. So your immune system, once it recognizes the virus as kindasorta familiar, immune cells start churning out antibodies at exponential rates and the virus is under serious attack. THIS IS WHY PEOPLE GET NO SYMPTOMS TO THE INFECTION, and MOST people have minimal symptoms. The 2 reasons the COVID-19 pandemic is a concern are because: 1) this virus is reallly, really, really infectious... so it spread fast; and 2) people with less robust immune systems, or people with comorbid conditions that compromise their ability to fight the effects of the virus in their respiratory systems, cannot reduce the impact of the infection in time to prevent serious illness. If we had NO immunity to COVID-19, most of us would die or get very, very sick.
....This trend will continue. But it may be positively impacted by self-quarantine, etc.
The exponential rates that this virus is taking hold here mean, infections and deaths will double roughly every 3 days.
Doubling rates vary by region. Worst case scenarios have doubling rates under 2 days. As of 2 days ago, the doubling rate in the USA as a whole was estimated at 4-6 days by seriously involved epidemiologists. Very clear, concise abstract about COVID-19. Well done, Doc. Stay safe and stay well.
"A Republic, if you can keep it." ~ B. Franklin
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Campfire 'Bwana
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Campfire 'Bwana
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 45,500 Likes: 29 |
I know many here think it is a liberal ruse, and that COVID-19 won't amount to much. And, I am not a fear monger. But I am a realist.
It's called "Novel" coronavirus, because humans have zero immunity to it. That means, with no intervention (we continue life as usual), we can expect exponential growth. Okay, let me inject a bit of reality--or perhaps immunological science--into the discussion. And I speak from the perspective of my medical and advanced (postgraduate) biochemistry and immunology training. To say humans have "zero immunity" to COVID-19 is NONSENSE. The bug belongs to a family of viruses that every one of us has developed antibodies to. Many, if not most of the previous coronaviruses (MERS, SARS, and a couple others being the exception, since most of us haven't been exposed to them) have been around for a long time. SOoooo... this means that you have antibodies that recognize parts of the antigen(s) on the surface of the COVID-19 particles. So your immune system, once it recognizes the virus as kindasorta familiar, immune cells start churning out antibodies at exponential rates and the virus is under serious attack. THIS IS WHY PEOPLE GET NO SYMPTOMS TO THE INFECTION, and MOST people have minimal symptoms. The 2 reasons the COVID-19 pandemic is a concern are because: 1) this virus is reallly, really, really infectious... so it spread fast; and 2) people with less robust immune systems, or people with comorbid conditions that compromise their ability to fight the effects of the virus in their respiratory systems, cannot reduce the impact of the infection in time to prevent serious illness. If we had NO immunity to COVID-19, most of us would die or get very, very sick.
....This trend will continue. But it may be positively impacted by self-quarantine, etc.
The exponential rates that this virus is taking hold here mean, infections and deaths will double roughly every 3 days.
Doubling rates vary by region. Worst case scenarios have doubling rates under 2 days. As of 2 days ago, the doubling rate in the USA as a whole was estimated at 4-6 days by seriously involved epidemiologists. Very clear, concise abstract about COVID-19. Well done, Doc. Stay safe and stay well. Huh, Imagine that. A post by someone with actual medical and post grad experience in the issue. Wow! Right here on the 'ol Campfire too........for free (well, some folks get some silly ad that pops up I heard) Thanks Doc, Geno
The desert is a true treasure for him who seeks refuge from men and the evil of men.
In it is contentment
In it is death and all you seek
(Quoted from "The Bleeding of the Stone" Ibrahim Al-Koni)
member of the cabal of dysfunctional squirrels?
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Joined: Dec 2002
Posts: 26,102 Likes: 20
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Dec 2002
Posts: 26,102 Likes: 20 |
Idaho Shooter.,. you're right, and I shot from the lip in my original comment. I'm doing too much at one time these days. I have corrected it.
My primary point remains, i.e., that most of us have some immune capability to fight this virus back. This is why I take exception to the doomsayers proclaiming "humanity has zero immunity to COVID-19!!". It's simply not true. If we had "zero immunity" the death rate would be 100%. That's clearly not the case, so we have some immune response. Although this is a novel virus to us, it's not the first corona type virus our systems have encountered. Not by a long shot. Do most folks not understand there is a difference between preexisting immunity and immune response? The difference being with preexisting immunity, the bug never gets a hold of your system, and you never become contagious. With an immune response, you get infected and shed the pathogen to others in the population until your immune system kicks the bug's ass, possibly while never showing any symptoms, unless you get sick or die. I got chicken pox and measles while I was in Grammar School, because I had no immunity to the viruses. But my immune response kicked in and I got well. I now have immunity against any further exposure to these viruses.
People who choose to brew up their own storms bitch loudest about the rain.
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Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 18,005
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Sep 2006
Posts: 18,005 |
Idaho Shooter.... yes, we are pretty much on the same page.
The only quibble I have is that pre-existing immunity isn't an all-or-nothing thing... it's kind of a spectrum of responsiveness. Depending on how "fresh" your immune system is with respect to the current viral threat, and how much of a viral load you are exposed to, your immune response may be slowish/smallish to immediate-knockout-punchish. If that makes sense.
You still need to be exposed/infected to the virus. It has to enter your body for an immune response to start. And even if you can knock it down quickly, say in a day or two, and not get sick, you may still be carrying significant virus in your mouth and nose and be very capable of spreading it to others.
Last edited by DocRocket; 03/21/20.
"I'm gonna have to science the schit out of this." Mark Watney, Sol 59, Mars
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Joined: Jul 2007
Posts: 500
Campfire Regular
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Just so the cherrypickers are paying attention, Doc said,
" 1) this virus is reallly, really, really infectious... so it spread fast; and
2) people with less robust immune systems, or people with comorbid conditions that compromise their ability to fight the effects of the virus in their respiratory systems, cannot reduce the impact of the infection in time to prevent serious illness."
AND
"Doubling rates vary by region. Worst case scenarios have doubling rates under 2 days. As of 2 days ago, the doubling rate in the USA as a whole was estimated at 4-6 days by seriously involved epidemiologists."
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Joined: Dec 2002
Posts: 26,102 Likes: 20
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Dec 2002
Posts: 26,102 Likes: 20 |
Idaho Shooter.... yes, we are pretty much on the same page.
The only quibble I have is that pre-existing immunity isn't an all-or-nothing thing... it's kind of a spectrum of responsiveness. Depending on how "fresh" your immune system is with respect to the current viral threat, and how much of a viral load you are exposed to, your immune response may be slowish/smallish to immediate-knockout-punchish. If that makes sense.
You still need to be exposed/infected to the virus. It has to enter your body for an immune response to start. And even if you can knock it down quickly, say in a day or two, and not get sick, you may still be carrying significant virus in your mouth and nose and be very capable of spreading it to others. Absolutely, total agreement. I talked about gradients and it is not black or white but shades of grey a couple days ago.
People who choose to brew up their own storms bitch loudest about the rain.
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Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 450
Campfire Member
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Campfire Member
Joined: Apr 2010
Posts: 450 |
Just bought a 1022 and two boxes of ammo, 100 bullets a lot. am I good to go Best $2000.00 I ever spent.
NOVIT EMIM DOMINUS QUI SUNT EUIS {Arnauld Amalric} "Kill them all,God will know His." Never trust Horses ,Women and very few Mules.A good rifle will let in lots of AIR AND LIGHT.
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Joined: Oct 2009
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Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 12,650 Likes: 12 |
Idaho Shooter.... yes, we are pretty much on the same page.
The only quibble I have is that pre-existing immunity isn't an all-or-nothing thing... it's kind of a spectrum of responsiveness. Depending on how "fresh" your immune system is with respect to the current viral threat, and how much of a viral load you are exposed to, your immune response may be slowish/smallish to immediate-knockout-punchish. If that makes sense.
You still need to be exposed/infected to the virus. It has to enter your body for an immune response to start. And even if you can knock it down quickly, say in a day or two, and not get sick, you may still be carrying significant virus in your mouth and nose and be very capable of spreading it to others. Absolutely, total agreement. I talked about gradients and it is not black or white but shades of grey a couple days ago. You posted that there was no immunity to Covid, and that therefore it was way more serious as a virus. Then you posted that 100% of people would get it, because there was no immunity. Then you changed your story to different levels of immunity. Then you changed your story to no pre-existing immunity.
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Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Dec 2013
Posts: 23,693 Likes: 3 |
$2,000 FOR A 10/22 AND 200 RDS OF .22LR?!
What the hell are people paying for an AR now?
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