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Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 10,258
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Dec 2007
Posts: 10,258 |
And a bunch of people are acting like old women. Truth will probably be somewhere in the middle. Most reasonable response.
Ed
A person who asks a question is a fool for 5 minutes the person who never asks is a fool forever.
The worst slaves are those that put the chains on themselves.
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Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 760
Campfire Regular
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Campfire Regular
Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 760 |
Have to consider that an estimated 40% that get it don't know or it isn't serious enough to report. 20% wont ever get it
So that 3% death rate is of basically mostly serious cases. so that 3% is really 1%
Here is how i heard it explained by Faucci on TV.
80% of cases wont be serious. 20% will be serious. 10% will require hospitalization,, 5 % to icu 5 % to a ventilator of the 5% on a ventilator half will die 2.5% (of the 20%).
But the trick is if we overwhelm the medical system 80% of those requiring hospitalization die.
Infested serious Hospital icu dead 1 Million 200K 20,000 10,000 5,000 2 million 400K 40,000 20,000 10,000 where we are currently 3 million 600K 60,000 30,000 15,000 close to here we run out of ICU 4 mllion 800K 80,000 40,000 25,000 NO ICU OR HOSPITAL BEDS 5 million 1M 100,000 50,000 80,000 80% or more requiring hospital die 10MILLION 2m 200,000 100,000 160,000 20 MILLION 4m 400,000 200,000 320,000 50 million 10M 2,000,000 1,000,000 800,000
this is what they fear.
where the truth is i don't know
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Joined: Nov 2013
Posts: 28,809 Likes: 3
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Nov 2013
Posts: 28,809 Likes: 3 |
My guess is US deaths will run around 30 thousand, for this year anyway. Ought to be a vaccine by next year.
What fresh Hell is this?
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Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 45,179 Likes: 16
Campfire 'Bwana
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Campfire 'Bwana
Joined: Sep 2011
Posts: 45,179 Likes: 16 |
The morality rates are overblown because the majority of those infected don’t suffer any symptoms. Conrad, just joking some, but according to some here.................. there is no "morality" to rate in the US of A anymore. And your correct, those of us infected with a bit of morality don't show symptoms of it. Just a normal life for us.. Geno
The desert is a true treasure for him who seeks refuge from men and the evil of men. In it is contentment In it is death and all you seek (Quoted from "The Bleeding of the Stone" Ibrahim Al-Koni)
member of the cabal of dysfunctional squirrels?
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Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 20,824
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 20,824 |
The morality rates are overblown because the majority of those infected don’t suffer any symptoms. Conrad, just joking some, but according to some here.................. there is no "morality" to rate in the US of A anymore. And your correct, those of us infected with a bit of morality don't show symptoms of it. Just a normal life for us.. Geno More words of wisdom...... I have come to terms with my morality .... and it is not improving.... damn, do they have a pill for that?
Originally Posted by Judman PS, if you think Trump is “good” you’re way stupider than I thought! Haha
Sorry, trump is a no tax payin pile of shiit.
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Joined: Apr 2001
Posts: 2,161
Campfire Regular
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Campfire Regular
Joined: Apr 2001
Posts: 2,161 |
I am firmly in both camps. It is bad, really bad and we should do everything THAT HAS A REASONABLE CHANCE of slowing the spread and reducing the number of deaths. That being said, about half of the stuff we are being told is complete BS, and will have NO positive affect on the number of sick or dead. Some of this stuff is just draconian government control. Closing boat ramps and outlawing fishing ? Hunting season ? Really ?
On the other hand, the level of fear mongering and vast exaggeration in the MSM is way out of proportion. Watch CNN for a few hours and you will learn that 80% of the world’s population will be dead in a few weeks. NYC might as well drink the koolaid now. The entire economy is going to collapse and we are all going to be living in the stone age.
This thing is changing, day by day, hour by hour. Anybody who claims to know the end results is full of it.
MOLON LABE
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Joined: Oct 2011
Posts: 59,115 Likes: 23
Campfire Kahuna
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Campfire Kahuna
Joined: Oct 2011
Posts: 59,115 Likes: 23 |
Math will provide the answer you seek........
Only if you are told the facts and truth. I'm not holding my breath for that to happen. As a matter of fact, we have been lied to SOOOO much, I don't trust anything we are told as being the truth... Only the agenda. That does tend to be a problem.
Paul
"I'd rather see a sermon than hear a sermon".... D.A.D.
Trump Won!, Sandmann Won!, Rittenhouse Won!, Suck it Liberal Fuuktards.
molɔ̀ːn labé skýla
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Joined: Dec 2002
Posts: 25,919 Likes: 2
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Dec 2002
Posts: 25,919 Likes: 2 |
Over the last few weeks, folks here at the campfire have pretty much divided into two camps:
1-this disease is really bad, and we must do everything in our power to slow it down or stop it.
B- this disease is over blown,, and we are overreacting.
So I ask, at what number will you change your mind? We're at under 10,000 as I type this. There undoubtedly will be more. When it's all said and done, what number will you say either it wasn't as bad as I thought, we shouldn't have shut down like we did? Or, that was worse than I thought, it's a good thing we shut everything down?
How about, It did not get nearly as bad as it could have. Thank God we took actions to attenuate the devastation which would have happened. The recession/depression/economic slow down was inevitable no matter the course. The plummeting stock market began before the virus made any impact on America. That was a result of an economic stop in China rippling across the globe. Yes, our reaction to the virus hastened and deepened the fall of the Dow. Without attenuation of viral contagion, that same fall would have happened as hundreds of thousands or millions died across the US from C-19. Panic???? Then you would have seen panic!
People who choose to brew up their own storms bitch loudest about the rain.
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Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 11,116 Likes: 1
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 11,116 Likes: 1 |
As the resident 'fire stats nerd....
1. The real infection rate is unknown and unknowable. Many cases are undiagnosed and unreported. My personal SWAG is somewhere around 20% actually get reported, maybe less. Two, possibly three members of my extended family (one being a physician) probably had it, and just toughed it out.
2. Until you know the infection rate, you can't calculate mortality rate. If my SWAG (above) is somewhere near correct, then published mortality rates are inflated 5X. IOW, not good news, but also not as bad as reported.
3. Based on practical experience, intricate forecasting models frequently fail. The IHME model that the government is following is intricate.
4. It's not a terrible assumption to say that the health care system captures a fairly constant percentage of cases. So the number of newly diagnosed cases is probably a decent indicator of true new cases. If you want to accept those assumptions, it's interesting to note that my state, Utah, has been on a linear up-ramp since March 13. The linear trend "broke" yesterday, with a statistically detectable improvement in the number of new cases. The curve may have turned, or maybe it was just Sunday, and numbers didn't get fully reported.
5. The Utah data give no indication of the exponential growth assumed in the IHME model.
6. Without divine revelation, we don't know the future, so we have to make the best estimate we can. All statistical models are estimates. Almost all estimates are wrong. However, some are close enough to be useful. When this episode is over, we might have a better idea of how close the estimates were. But by then, they won't any longer be useful for planning purposes.
Be not weary in well doing.
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Joined: Feb 2016
Posts: 17,821
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Feb 2016
Posts: 17,821 |
Wonder if the computer models for this virus done by the same company that made em for predicting Hillary's win?
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Joined: Jan 2010
Posts: 32,130 Likes: 1
Campfire 'Bwana
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Campfire 'Bwana
Joined: Jan 2010
Posts: 32,130 Likes: 1 |
Over the last few weeks, folks here at the campfire have pretty much divided into two camps:
1-this disease is really bad, and we must do everything in our power to slow it down or stop it.
B- this disease is over blown,, and we are overreacting.
So I ask, at what number will you change your mind? We're at under 10,000 as I type this. There undoubtedly will be more. When it's all said and done, what number will you say either it wasn't as bad as I thought, we shouldn't have shut down like we did? Or, that was worse than I thought, it's a good thing we shut everything down?
This is a gross oversimplification. You’re inability to escape a world view comprised of strictly polarized contrast sets, severely limits your participation.
If you put Taco Bell sauce in your ramen noodles it tastes just like poverty
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Joined: Dec 2002
Posts: 25,919 Likes: 2
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Dec 2002
Posts: 25,919 Likes: 2 |
Denton, How do you interpret the rise in the national death toll since Feb 29 and the doubling rate of four days?
Which may have perceptibly slowed as the four day projection from 6000 on Apr 2 would lead to 12,000 as of today. Worldometer still shows less than 11,000 deaths for today. I hope that number stands.
People who choose to brew up their own storms bitch loudest about the rain.
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Joined: Aug 2003
Posts: 1,423
Campfire Regular
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Campfire Regular
Joined: Aug 2003
Posts: 1,423 |
As the resident 'fire stats nerd....
1. The real infection rate is unknown and unknowable. Many cases are undiagnosed and unreported. My personal SWAG is somewhere around 20% actually get reported, maybe less. Two, possibly three members of my extended family (one being a physician) probably had it, and just toughed it out.
2. Until you know the infection rate, you can't calculate mortality rate. If my SWAG (above) is somewhere near correct, then published mortality rates are inflated 5X. IOW, not good news, but also not as bad as reported.
3. Based on practical experience, intricate forecasting models frequently fail. The IHME model that the government is following is intricate.
4. It's not a terrible assumption to say that the health care system captures a fairly constant percentage of cases. So the number of newly diagnosed cases is probably a decent indicator of true new cases. If you want to accept those assumptions, it's interesting to note that my state, Utah, has been on a linear up-ramp since March 13. The linear trend "broke" yesterday, with a statistically detectable improvement in the number of new cases. The curve may have turned, or maybe it was just Sunday, and numbers didn't get fully reported.
5. The Utah data give no indication of the exponential growth assumed in the IHME model.
6. Without divine revelation, we don't know the future, so we have to make the best estimate we can. All statistical models are estimates. Almost all estimates are wrong. However, some are close enough to be useful. When this episode is over, we might have a better idea of how close the estimates were. But by then, they won't any longer be useful for planning purposes. Indeed.
Regards,
deadlift_dude “The very first essential for success is a perpetually constant and regular employment of violence.” ----Fred Rogers
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Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 9,341
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Dec 2004
Posts: 9,341 |
Its said that there was a 47% false negative rate. Don't if or when that was corrected.
The end of democracy, and the defeat of the American Revolution will occur when government falls into the hands of lending institutions and moneyed incorporations.
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Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 12,359
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 12,359 |
This thing is changing, day by day, hour by hour. Anybody who claims to know the end results is full of it.
agreed. I just would be surprised if the expected-by-some 500,000 dead is close to what we will end up with.
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Joined: Jan 2002
Posts: 10,606
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Jan 2002
Posts: 10,606 |
When you consider how bad this disease could be shutting down is worth it. What we do to stop it’s spread will reduce the number of people who die so we will have no proof of what would have happened without these measures.
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Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 11,116 Likes: 1
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 11,116 Likes: 1 |
Idaho Shooter.... Here's a little bit of a stab at an answer on the death rate: From the CDC web site, So it looks like we are winning, right? Well, no. Look at the Total Deaths column. Are we to believe that total deaths have also declined? Doesn't meet the smell test. The explanation is in the footnote, which many hastily skip. Data during this period are incomplete because of the lag in time between when the death occurred and when the death certificate is completed, submitted to NCHS and processed for reporting purposes. This delay can range from 1 week to 8 weeks or more, depending on the jurisdiction, age, and cause of death. So recent weeks will always be under-reported, just as we see in the Total Deaths column. If you scale the 04/04/20 data, the final number might be closer to 2500 than the 415 reported. The data we have are not of high quality, and there is an insufficient number of data to make any kind of precise estimate of growth rate. News organizations are in the business of selling audiences to advertisers. Bigger audience, more revenue from advertising. The more spectacular the claims they make, the bigger their audience will be. So there is a built in bias toward spectacular claims. Personally, I would not stake my reputation on a national statement any more specific than "People are dying from COVID19."
Last edited by denton; 04/06/20.
Be not weary in well doing.
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Joined: Dec 2002
Posts: 25,919 Likes: 2
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Dec 2002
Posts: 25,919 Likes: 2 |
Thank you very much Denton.
People who choose to brew up their own storms bitch loudest about the rain.
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Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 2,631
Campfire Regular
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Campfire Regular
Joined: Mar 2008
Posts: 2,631 |
Garbage in, garbage out. Can't believe the numbers if you don't know how many are infected.
Last edited by BlueDuck; 04/07/20.
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Joined: May 2008
Posts: 5,171 Likes: 5
Campfire Tracker
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OP
Campfire Tracker
Joined: May 2008
Posts: 5,171 Likes: 5 |
Over the last few weeks, folks here at the campfire have pretty much divided into two camps:
1-this disease is really bad, and we must do everything in our power to slow it down or stop it.
B- this disease is over blown,, and we are overreacting.
So I ask, at what number will you change your mind? We're at under 10,000 as I type this. There undoubtedly will be more. When it's all said and done, what number will you say either it wasn't as bad as I thought, we shouldn't have shut down like we did? Or, that was worse than I thought, it's a good thing we shut everything down?
This is a gross oversimplification. You’re inability to escape a world view comprised of strictly polarized contrast sets, severely limits your participation. I tried to make it simple so you could understand. I guess I'll have to try harder next time.
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