Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire When Is The Crash Coming?

This is where I am.

I’ve been in a condo on Pensacola Beach for the last month. The beach was opened May 1 and it’s been packed since. The restaurants opened shortly after with tables moved farther apart and as busy as the beach is you’d think they’d be packed, but it isn’t so. People are avoiding them for some reason, it’s not what I would expect in a tourist area. The grocery stores are packed however.

Judging by what I’m seeing I think it’s optimistic to believe things are going right back to normal when the restrictions are lifted. People have changed their behavior and I believe the restaurant business is going to be permanently altered.

Was in Tenn[tourist area where we own] the first weekend restaurants opened for indoor dining, all were full[50%]

There are several services here you can use, usually ranging from $30-50 per background check. But lately, I've been letting a real estate agent I've known for about 25 years do it all for me, especially the ones in Miami-Dade. His office is close to those properties. I pay him a reduced rate on his commissions and he does it all. He knows my hot buttons and who I don't want in my properties. I just review the docs and give a yes or no. Tend to get a better class of tenant and I don't mind him making his living, too.

One other thing I've started doing in the last several years is getting an extra month's security deposit if there is ANYTHING remotely offensive on the background check. That comes in very handy if you ever have to evict them. Plus, my paperwork is tight. They forfeit ALL the security deposit if they come under eviction. The lease always reads 1st and security, with security being 2 or 3 months rent. NEVER 1st, last and security. 90% of tenants will ass-ume that, though. They tend to be a lttle more mindful, the more skin they have in the game. Especially if they know they won't get any of it back if they screw up. You have to educate them thoroughly right out of the box BEFORE you hand them the keys, and most will conveniently forget that education, if you ever start having any problems with them.

There are some people I just won't rent to and there are enough legal escape hatches to maintain that policy.

You definitely have some daddy hatred issues. It's to the point of being obsessive-compulsive.

No. I don't want to see the economy tank or personal freedoms shrunk any more that anyone else does.

But, there are facts that come into play, wishful thinking and denial has gotten us to the point we are now. Another outbreak will prolong and perhaps intensify the pain.

Hopefully, rational and intelligent re-opening strategies will be implemented and followed.

You mean more than zero?

The point we are now is counting probables and ruining live for the hell of it.


I guess thats prudent .......

It’ll be here before November, an the dims will try to steal the election by electronic votes.

This guy thinks it’s gonna bottom out in August.
https://apple.news/AEsXtIp1GTdevsOMtD7nI-g

Lots of restaurants will close and never recover to reopen.
Lots of small mom & pop business as well.

And if we don’t move production of goods from China back to America, we are fugged.

I certainly hope it bottoms out by August (or even sooner), but there are just too many unknowns for any prediction:
- Will the gradual re-opening of the economy lead to new infestations?
- Will the economy have to be re-closed with new stay-at-home directives?
- Will people ignore proper procedures (hand washing, social distancing)?
- Will the inevitable bankruptcies and unemployment lead to investor withdrawal?
- What else might occur to shake confidence?

Investors buy equities on longer-term good news; with economic projections fairly dismal, will they buy or sell?

Wishful thinking and denial has gotten us to the point we are now? Who the hell was engaging in wishful thinking and denial? We shut the whole freakin country down for two months and went into lock down. Trump started stopping travel to various countries in February. We built mobile hospitals all over the country. That's not wishful thinking. It's been 24/7 death and destruction on the news for the past 3 months. That's not what I'd consider denial.



Dude, you must be a blast at a party. You need to go back to your safe space and stop with all of the gloom and doom.

Everybody thinks the re-opening is gonna be like someone turned on a light switch and we're going back to the way it was. I've got news for ya, we'll never be back to "normal" until they come up with a vaccine and increase testing. I've been open through this whole mess and out of 30 employees, we had one guy get sick, and that was from his mother who is a nurse. Nobody wants to get sick. That's why things are so much more different now. I wash my hands 100 times a day. I never did that before. We wipe down all door handles and push bars, light switches, key boards, credit card machines, phones, and toilets a couple of times a day. We never did that before either. Everybody tries to keep away from each other instead of hugging and shaking hands. People with health issues need to limit their exposure. All of the people who haven't been out and have been locked down hibernating in their homes are scared schitless. It's because the MSM has been telling them that everyone is gonna die if we open back up.

Between Oct 1, 2019 and April 4, 2020 we had about 50 Million cases of the regular flu with somewhere near 50,000 deaths and we never shut down for that.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm

Good to see you posting again Brian---Welcome back. Bob

You "replied" to rockinbbar's original post. If you don't use the reply button on your friend's post, he'll never know you responded.

Lot of people seem to miss that little tidbit.. or just don't care. Probably the latter.

Haa, I never left. I've just been busier than a one legged man in an ass kicking contest.

You know me, I'm just trying to spread good will and optimism. Hopefully we can get this train back on the tracks and everything will be fine. It just needs to be done carefully. I wish the hell that our range would open back up so that I can go kill some clay birds. Good to talk to you Bob, Take care brother.

Ron Paul, worth a read.


Last week the Federal Reserve announced it will keep interest rates at or near zero until the economy recovers from the government-imposed shutdown. Following this announcement, Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell urged Congress and the Trump administration to put aside any concerns about the deficit and spend whatever it takes to stimulate the economy and combat coronavirus.

The Federal Reserve previously announced it would make unlimited purchases of Treasury securities, thus encouraging Congress and the president to increase spending and debt. With some members of Congress talking about another multi-trillion-dollar stimulus bill, and with President Trump proposing a two trillion dollars infrastructure plan as a way to get Americans back to work, it is obvious, and not surprising, that Congress and President Trump gleefully agree with Powell’s advice.

Increasing the purchase of federal debt is not the only action the Fed has taken in a desperate attempt to keep the economy afloat. Since the coronavirus lockdowns began in early March, the Fed has greatly expanded its balance sheet. The Federal Reserve has also launched an unprecedented program to “loan” money directly to businesses.

While some states are beginning to end the lockdowns, it may be months or even another year before all the lockdowns are finally ended. It is unlikely that the economy will completely recover after the shutdown ends.

The economy was teetering on the brink of a recession months before anyone heard of coronavirus. Last September, a panicked Fed began emergency infusions of cash into the repurchasing market, which is where banks make short-term loans to each other. The Fed’s balance sheet expansion also began in September. The Fed was also pushing interest rates down before the coronavirus panic, and it will likely keep rates at or even below zero long after the crisis related to the shutdown subsides.

Economic stagnation combined with zero or negative interest rates remove incentive for people to save. This depletes the supply of private capital available to invest in businesses and jobs. The lack of private capital will put pressure on the Federal Reserve to maintain, and even expand, its new lending programs indefinitely.

Each of the Federal Reserve’s responses to the coronavirus shutdown increases the distortions of the market caused by the Federal Reserve’s meddling with the money supply and interest rates. These increased distortions guarantee the inevitable crash will be much more severe than the current downturn. The one upside is that the next meltdown will likely lead to the end of the fiat money system and thus the end of the welfare-warfare state.

The only way to minimize the coming crisis is to begin immediately unwinding the current system. The first step is to end the lockdown and let businesses reopen and people go back to work. Congress must then begin challenging monetary policy by passing the Audit the Fed bill. Congress should also cut spending, starting with ending our hyper-interventionist foreign policy and bringing the troops home. Ending the welfare-warfare state and the fiat money system may cause some short-term pain, but that pain will be dwarfed by the long-term gains in liberty, peace, and prosperity.

Cause we know that you’ll be able to handle things.

No problem for the Boomers.

When they gonna open the damn road so we can get into the Keys?

I am trying to book a charter and they are sayin' "maybe" June 1st?

This maybe schit don't cut it. I have friends on standby in the NW that need to book flights, a little time up front sure helps with that.
Can't book squat on a "maybe".....Air B&B is still refusing bookings there too.

Tried to get my Charter Captain to pick me up at the Islamorada air strip, I was going to book a Cessna in Everglades City and just fly down that way, he was to spooked of the lock-down order to do it....

The flippin' Monroe County website is still just saying...................



That aint no commitment to being accessible June 1st!!!

Some body down there has gotta man up and put a date on it......

There are people that wanna come to the Keys and spend money....

Oh shixt, when is the CRASH coming. No idea. I thought y'all were talkin' about the next round of stimulus checks. Soon, I hope. I got a lot of work I need to do on the boat.

Go back and look at 2001/2002 and 2008/2009 and when the market hit bottom relative to the event that started the problem. Hint, it was about a year after the “shock” event

I’d be willing to bet a lot of money that we have not seen the bottom yet and when we do it’s going to be ugly

Someone above mentioned 10pct unemployment. Try 25pct. Where the stock market is makes zero sense based on the economic data out there and that will come in the next 3-6 months