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Joined: May 2014
Posts: 5,817
Campfire Tracker
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OP
Campfire Tracker
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 5,817 |
The world trading currency will not collapse.
The USA will go to war to see to that. Do you really think we would go to war? Really? I would agree with your assessment if this were 1990 or 2000, but the world and the US position in it is very different. Would war even been a "fix" for such an event.
Last edited by OldHat; 06/15/20.
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Joined: May 2014
Posts: 5,817
Campfire Tracker
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OP
Campfire Tracker
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 5,817 |
Okay, I know, I know, people are forever forecasting the end of the world, but really it is not if but when, no? The US is going to devalue it's own currency placating interest groups and trying to survive "crisis". 2020 shows us how fragile the whole system really is.
Are you doing anything to prepare?
What, precisely, do you anticipate? Inflation? The CARES act just injected $4 trillion in to the system, and inflation dropped; deflation is probably the bigger threat at this point. I know that runaway inflation is a big fear among fellas of a certain age, but what you may have experienced in the 70’s won’t recur. The set of conditions that caused it, i.e. closed national markets, targeted full employment, and strong labor protections no longer exists, Reagan, and Thatcher destroyed that world when they enacted Friedman’s ideas, and established the neoliberal order. The dollar is the global reserve asset, it’s fine, and will continue to be for the foreseeable future. I like your post. Yes, inflation. First, doesn't inflation only require a devaluation and a devaluation can occur via other mechanisms. Obviously this is true else in the limit all governments would simply print and never borrow. Second, I sense an arbitrary confidence in your last statement. How long is the foreseeable future? 10 minutes? 10 days? 10 months? 10 years?
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Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 9,587 Likes: 1
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 9,587 Likes: 1 |
gold and silver will not be worth anything if a war starts. who the hell is going to want to carry that heavy stuff around. they want your cash,thats why they keep pushing gold and silver. ammo,ammo,ammo will be worth more when the [bleep] hits the fan.
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Joined: May 2014
Posts: 5,817
Campfire Tracker
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OP
Campfire Tracker
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 5,817 |
It is my experience that folks living in countries that have national currencies that have undergone debasement are strong holders of both silver and gold. It can happen here in the US. Probably will.
It is just a matter of time before those “trillions” of stimulus work their way into the economy on Main Street. Our government is now in bailout mode.... bail out the unemployed, small business, big business, business that is crucial to the nation.... just a matter of time before we see just how they are bailing out the pension funds.
Financial misery is on it’s way. Deflation first.... maybe for a couple of years, then perhaps stagflation then “big” inflation.
Not only is the US government in bailout mode, but the US population expects it. Government salvation is demanded by the US population in every aspect of life. The very idea that people can survive and live without government assistance, not talking food stamps here, is part of the American "dream". Modern America demands the government do everything and anything. I agree financial misery is on its way. Financial misery will result in other unintended consequences. The vacuum left by US weakness will be filled badly.
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Joined: Apr 2008
Posts: 17,203 Likes: 9
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Apr 2008
Posts: 17,203 Likes: 9 |
What will the soccer mama’s, trust fund babies, hipsters do if it happens?
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Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 28,411
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Nov 2003
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Starts a thread, then critiques the way members reply to it.
Sorry. I misunderstood your response. Read it twice. Of course outside events can affect economies. Volcanos, harsh extended winters, extreme droughts, etc.,etc. You start out with the wrong info and then act like you don’t understand other posters’ comments. Do you have a specific point to make? Specific point. His response was one word. I did not need to read it twice. My OP was a question. What "info" of mine was wrong - exactly? It’s more like, what of your information is correct? Do you have a specific point to make beyond the erroneous title of your thread or do you just want to shoot the scchitt some? How has the usd collapsed?
The degree of my privacy is no business of yours.
What we've learned from history is that we haven't learned from it.
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Joined: Oct 2009
Posts: 119
Campfire Member
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Old Hat,
No, inflation can be caused in lots of different ways, here’s a few:
1. Aggregate demand growing faster than aggregate supply, demand pull.
2. Higher costs leading to higher prices, cost push.
3. Increased cost of imported goods.
4. Rising wages.
The Bank of Japan did a long run study of inflation back to the 1300’s and found that the real, long term annual rate of inflation has been 1.5%. Look up the chart, it’s fascinating.
Regarding US debt, the dollar isn’t going anywhere, not for a very long time. If that sounds like arbitrary confidence, let me explain what’s behind it:
The US has never had a failed debt auction. US treasuries are where the rest of the world flees to safety. I buy all of the US debt I can afford within the constraints of my investor policy statement.
The dollar is the global reserve asset, oil is traded in dollars, and the rest of the world obtains dollars to do business. It’s as secure a currency as exists in today’s world.
Last edited by El_CuCuy; 06/15/20.
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Joined: Jan 2012
Posts: 26,647 Likes: 7
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Jan 2012
Posts: 26,647 Likes: 7 |
Old Hat,
No, inflation can be caused in lots of different ways, here’s a few:
1. Aggregate demand growing faster than aggregate supply, demand pull.
2. Higher costs leading to higher prices, cost push.
3. Increased cost of imported goods.
4. Rising wages.
The Bank of Japan did a long run study of inflation back to the 1300’s and found that the real, long term annual rate of inflation has been 1.5%. Look up the chart, it’s fascinating.
Regarding US debt, the dollar isn’t going anywhere, not for a very long time. If that sounds like arbitrary confidence, let me explain what’s behind it:
The US has never had a failed debt auction. US treasuries are where the rest of the world flees to safety. I buy all of the US debt I can afford within the constraints of my investor policy statement.
The dollar is the global reserve asset, oil is traded in dollars, and the rest of the world obtains dollars to do business. It’s as secure a currency as exists in today’s world.
Hence COVID-19. China is doing everything possible short of open warfare trying to change this.
FJB & FJT
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Joined: Jan 2012
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Campfire Kahuna
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Campfire Kahuna
Joined: Jan 2012
Posts: 67,495 Likes: 64 |
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Joined: Jan 2012
Posts: 26,647 Likes: 7
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Jan 2012
Posts: 26,647 Likes: 7 |
I did too.....but it's been 30 years.
FJB & FJT
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Joined: May 2010
Posts: 6,669
Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: May 2010
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Joined: Jan 2019
Posts: 3,464
Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: Jan 2019
Posts: 3,464 |
It's all about the TP here. Wife says pile it up asap, never wants to get that close to running out again.
Big scare but we made it through.
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Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 18,178
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Oct 2008
Posts: 18,178 |
Invest in precious metals....
Blue steel, brass and lead.
TRUMP- GABBARD 2024
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Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,573
Campfire Regular
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Campfire Regular
Joined: Nov 2011
Posts: 1,573 |
HOW MANY OF YOU DEAL, BUY, SELL TRADE IN PAPER MONEY ?? or DO YOU USE A DEBIT/CREDIT CARD? Not much paper money left in China unless you are out side of the cities. They use their smart phones to pay for everything. Your precious paper money is all going to be TP sooner than you think. The paper USD is up for extinction. Ray
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Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 28,411
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 28,411 |
HOW MANY OF YOU DEAL, BUY, SELL TRADE IN PAPER MONEY ?? or DO YOU USE A DEBIT/CREDIT CARD? Not much paper money left in China unless you are out side of the cities. They use their smart phones to pay for everything. Your precious paper money is all going to be TP sooner than you think. The paper USD is up for extinction. Ray Uhhh,,,no, Ray.
The degree of my privacy is no business of yours.
What we've learned from history is that we haven't learned from it.
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Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 19,306 Likes: 22
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Dec 2010
Posts: 19,306 Likes: 22 |
Man me too. Been a long time since I had any. Gotta get me some.
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Joined: Jan 2002
Posts: 12,891 Likes: 5
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Jan 2002
Posts: 12,891 Likes: 5 |
HOW MANY OF YOU DEAL, BUY, SELL TRADE IN PAPER MONEY ?? or DO YOU USE A DEBIT/CREDIT CARD? Not much paper money left in China unless you are out side of the cities. They use their smart phones to pay for everything. Your precious paper money is all going to be TP sooner than you think. The paper USD is up for extinction. Ray LOL, as China goes, so go we? Not quite. You can't even get on a bus or train in China without the proper "travel code" on your phone. If you think these cantankerous old farts are pissy about losing their guns or money, wait till they have to get a smart phone so they can display their government approved "papers" before getting on the road out of town....
Sic Semper Tyrannis
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Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 28,411
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 28,411 |
Man me too. Been a long time since I had any. Gotta get me some. Sista Patti LaBell is marketing her various cobblers via Walmart. So much sugar in it that it’s inedible for me. One bite. Didn’t notice it was her stuff till I looked at the box while at the camp. Put it in a hog trap along with the soured corn.
The degree of my privacy is no business of yours.
What we've learned from history is that we haven't learned from it.
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Joined: Jan 2012
Posts: 67,495 Likes: 64
Campfire Kahuna
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Campfire Kahuna
Joined: Jan 2012
Posts: 67,495 Likes: 64 |
Crunchy sugar crystals on top of the cobbler?
Mmmm😃
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Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 28,411
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 28,411 |
Crunchy sugar crystals on top of the cobbler?
Mmmm😃 That and a helluva lot more inside the cobbler.
The degree of my privacy is no business of yours.
What we've learned from history is that we haven't learned from it.
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