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Joined: May 2001
Posts: 18,348 Likes: 2
Campfire Ranger
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OP
Campfire Ranger
Joined: May 2001
Posts: 18,348 Likes: 2 |
Not even close. Good post with receipts. https://www.facebook.com/bjornlomborg/photos/a.221758208967/10156121084368968Fires in California and elsewhere are devastating. But US fires are nowhere near the record. More likely about one-fifth of the records in 1930 and 1931. Reuters (along with many others), tell us the current US fires are historic: "The year’s wildfire season is one of the worst in history in the United States, with nearly 8.6 million acres burned as of Oct. 13, according to the National Interagency Fire Center.” http://reut.rs/2wVWPP2But that is because the National Interagency Fire Center curiously – and somewhat conveniently – only shows the annual burnt area back to 1960, when fire suppression indeed was going strong, and hence we had some of the lowest amounts of burnt forests ever. Yet, the official historical data of the United States tells a different story. Look at the Historical Statistics of the United States - Colonial Times to 1970, p537: http://bit.ly/2hGp7XF. There we have statistics for area burnt since 1926 and up to 1970. Reassuringly, the data for 1960-1970 *completely overlap*. This is the same data series. And when you look at the whole data series, *every year* from 1926-1952 – over a quarter of a century – saw higher, and mostly much higher forest areas burnt than the modern record set in 2015. This is not (as some have suggested) an artifact of the US gradually being deforested (and hence having less land to burn). The USDA Forest Service in their Historical overview ( http://bit.ly/2jtVew8, p7) finds that the US “forest area has been relatively stable since 1910” – if anything slightly increasing since 1910 (which would help push up the burnt area slightly). This matters, because many wants to blame the current forest fires (like so many other bad effects) on global warming. Hence the clamor for arguing that these are ‘record-setting’ fires. Many news outlets pointed out that "2015 becomes worst US wildfire year on record" ( http://bit.ly/2ypFJfV) or "2015 was a record setter... the first time wildfire acreage burned has crossed the 10-million acre threshold" ( http://bit.ly/1O6rexy). Now, it appears probable that global warming will lead to somewhat more forest fires. But it is important to get a sense of proportion. US fires were *much* more destructive in the first part of last century. And this is also true globally. Because climate models need estimates for forest fires (because they emit CO₂) there are many and good models going far back. In one recent overview, run with 124 simulations, shows that while global warming will increase fires, we are now at a historic *minimum* of fires. Since 1900, fire activity has decreased about 20%. And even with the most damaging CO₂ increases over this century, “wildfire emissions start to rise again after ca. 2020 but are unlikely to reach the levels of 1900 by the end of the 21st century.” https://www.biogeosciences.net/13/267/2016/Note on data: 2017 estimated from area burnt from January 1 to October 13, as documented here: https://www.nifc.gov/fireInfo/nfn.htm. Comparing area-burnt-to-date for 2008-2016, on average these years had 91.6% of the burnt area before October 13 (from 85-96%), so the area-burnt-to-date for 2017 is multiplied by 100%/91.6% (=1.091) to create the most likely, comparable burnt area for all of 2017.
Carpe' Scrotum
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Joined: Jan 2004
Posts: 4,588
Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: Jan 2004
Posts: 4,588 |
I wonder what the total will be for 2020. The dust bowl years of 1928-1932 were brutal years.
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Joined: Jul 2009
Posts: 9,269 Likes: 2
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Jul 2009
Posts: 9,269 Likes: 2 |
CaliFornia means Hot Oven in Latin and the journels of the Lewis & Clark expedition have tales of the fires.
Nuthin New
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Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 4,208
Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 4,208 |
Acreage doesn't matter, DEVISTATION does.
Just look at the #campfire in Paradise, California.
Have there been bigger fires in Cal? Sure. But in San Bernardino Co, and Inyo Co, and other remote places.
Yet, with the #campfire, basically the ENTIRE TOWN burned to the ground in 45 minutes. So many people died and were displaced.
I am sure those stats posted include desolate land in Alaska, and other remote places.
I can tell you from seeing it this month, the Cameron Peak fire in Colorado is no joke. I have 2 friends who have lost homes, and it is still under 15% contained, 2 months in.....
It is irresponsible and disingenuous to simply compare acres burned. As the urban-wildland interface continues to grow, fires become more costly and deadly, regardless of the land mass burned.
The DIPCHIT ADD, after a morning of drinking:
You despair, repeatedly, constantly! daily basis? A despair ninny. Sack up, despire ninny.
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Joined: Apr 2013
Posts: 795
Campfire Regular
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Campfire Regular
Joined: Apr 2013
Posts: 795 |
Acreage doesn't matter, DEVISTATION does.
Just look at the #campfire in Paradise, California.
Have there been bigger fires in Cal? Sure. But in San Bernardino Co, and Inyo Co, and other remote places.
Yet, with the #campfire, basically the ENTIRE TOWN burned to the ground in 45 minutes. So many people died and were displaced.
I am sure those stats posted include desolate land in Alaska, and other remote places.
I can tell you from seeing it this month, the Cameron Peak fire in Colorado is no joke. I have 2 friends who have lost homes, and it is still under 15% contained, 2 months in.....
It is irresponsible and disingenuous to simply compare acres burned. As the urban-wildland interface continues to grow, fires become more costly and deadly, regardless of the land mass burned. Hey, leave Inyo outta this...
I’m not an organ donor. I don’t believe in an afterlife, but I’d rather cover my bases in case there is and I need everything. You just never know.
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Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 4,208
Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 4,208 |
Hey, leave Inyo outta this...
Mono, Inyo, Lassen, Plumas, Modoc.... All my old stomping grounds. Eastern escarpment and high desert. Lots of dead critters.... I am allowed to talk about Inyo
The DIPCHIT ADD, after a morning of drinking:
You despair, repeatedly, constantly! daily basis? A despair ninny. Sack up, despire ninny.
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Joined: May 2001
Posts: 18,348 Likes: 2
Campfire Ranger
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OP
Campfire Ranger
Joined: May 2001
Posts: 18,348 Likes: 2 |
Some of my family members lost everything in Detroit, Or. just a week ago, so I get that. I also was about 3 and 1/2 miles from one of the smaller fires.
The point is that all the media are saying that these are record breaking fires. They're not.
Carpe' Scrotum
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Joined: Apr 2013
Posts: 795
Campfire Regular
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Campfire Regular
Joined: Apr 2013
Posts: 795 |
Hey, leave Inyo outta this...
Mono, Inyo, Lassen, Plumas, Modoc.... All my old stomping grounds. Eastern escarpment and high desert. Lots of dead critters.... I am allowed to talk about Inyo I was just joking. There’s only 280k fire within a couple miles of Mammoth right now.
I’m not an organ donor. I don’t believe in an afterlife, but I’d rather cover my bases in case there is and I need everything. You just never know.
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Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 4,208
Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: Feb 2007
Posts: 4,208 |
Hey, leave Inyo outta this...
Mono, Inyo, Lassen, Plumas, Modoc.... All my old stomping grounds. Eastern escarpment and high desert. Lots of dead critters.... I am allowed to talk about Inyo I was just joking. There’s only 280k fire within a couple miles of Mammoth right now. I know. I have 2 family member homes threatened by the North Complex fire. My point was, it's not the size of the fire, it is the location of the fire. We are on the same page.... Stay safe!
The DIPCHIT ADD, after a morning of drinking:
You despair, repeatedly, constantly! daily basis? A despair ninny. Sack up, despire ninny.
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Joined: Jun 2009
Posts: 3,993 Likes: 2
Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: Jun 2009
Posts: 3,993 Likes: 2 |
So what’s the consensus on these fires? All natural causes or human related? Was listening to npr today and they were adamant that antifa had nothing to do with these fires, that it was fake news. The way they went on about it made me think npr was the fake news.
"I was born in the log cabin I helped my grandfather build"
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Joined: Feb 2009
Posts: 16,272 Likes: 1
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Feb 2009
Posts: 16,272 Likes: 1 |
Epstein didn't kill himself.
"Play Cinnamon Girl you Sonuvabitch!"
Biden didn't win the election.
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Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 8,324 Likes: 1
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 8,324 Likes: 1 |
It’s climate change from driving cars, just ask any liberal.
There were more fires near populated areas the last few years, probably normal on a larger time line but unusual in a human life span. MT had a smaller than average fire year. Large fires on the west side of Oregon and Washington are a bit more rare. The chit you experienced this year is normal for us, you just have more people and structures.
"Life is tough, even tougher if your stupid" John Wayne
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Joined: Jan 2004
Posts: 4,588
Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: Jan 2004
Posts: 4,588 |
Back in the "old days" (30s - 50s) air resources were very limited or non existent. Heck, even bulldozers were very rudimentary. The wild land fire fighting group that I'm associated with still uses buildings that were once used to house the mules that carried supplies and fire fighters into fires. We have gotten much better at suppressing fires.
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Joined: Jun 2008
Posts: 13,357
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Jun 2008
Posts: 13,357 |
My point was, it's not the size of the fire, it is the location of the fire.
How so? Because we decided that we wanted to build homes in these locations? People build houses in flood zones, hurricane zones, Tornado zones, etc it's a choice and comes with consequences. Natural fires are a part of nature as are those others I listed. What burns in the path of a fire is acreage period. Yes it sucks that people lost homes, possessions, and lives but it is no different than any other natural disaster. Looking at the graph we know a few things. In those early numbers fighting fires was limited at best (gear and access). So let's eliminate those years and we see that it has relatively stayed under the 10 Million mark. Also we can take into account that logging was relevant up into let's say the 90's. This helped suppress fires. Post 90's we have had a heavy build up of forest combustibles. I have to believe also that there were a lot fewer jackasses intentionally setting forest fires back pre 80's let's say. So there really is no correlation of forest fires to Global warming.
Eat Fish, Wear Grundens, Drink Alaskan.
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Joined: Dec 2003
Posts: 86,300 Likes: 28
Campfire Oracle
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Campfire Oracle
Joined: Dec 2003
Posts: 86,300 Likes: 28 |
Smoked bear campaign started in 1944. How much of the minimum period is a Smokey bear effect?
If you take the time it takes, it takes less time. --Pat Parelli
American by birth; Alaskan by choice. --ironbender
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