Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire Stock market 2021

You're either believe in market returns in the long run or you don't. But trying to time the ups an downs will drive you nuts as you all know. The market has made 30% corrections (or bear markets if you prefer) a few times in the past and recovered. Regardless of who was in office. I don't put much stock in Biden causing the market to dip, just as I did not put much stock in Trump causing the market to rise. (Actually the S&P 500 was up more in Obummer's 4 years than DJT's 4 years). But if you are really that worried about Biden's policies affecting the market, take some of your 2020 profits and sit on that cash to weather any storm. But to sell all and sit on 100% cash is not something I will do.

That said, I am up over 7% so far in January and finished up 50% in 2020. Heavy in tech. The swings will come. And if there is a 30% correction??? Well I'm still ahead factoring in 2020. But I'm sitting on enough cash to get me through 2 years. Makes sleeping at night easy.

Sounds reasonable to me. I got 45% from a NASDAQ index fund. That won't happen on a regular basis. I guess I'll ride it out. As I get older, it gets more unnerving.

Laughin' here...................in 6 months, it'll be down by 20% or more, gas will be $3 a gallon.

If we're lucky.

MM

Short term Stimulus.....UP. Long term Biden and his “Stylish” cabinet screw everything up.... DOWN.

I had a dog, Chico the GWP, who bit every porcupine he found.

Inflation will be your big enemy in 2021 and beyond with all the "free" money blowing in the wind.

I'm in green tech and EV companies. The Dems will pump these and dump fossil. They'll dictate this for at least the next two years and four if they keep both Houses.

Guys,

I did a conference call with some of the fund managers and economists for Fidelity this past Monday. While they forecast a Spring and Fall pull back, they see t 2021 ending on the upside as the vaccine opens the country and world back up.

What to invest in?

It's simple, what do the Dems want to push?

HealthCare
Biotech
industry automation

The Fidelity people seem to firmly believe there are not the votes for Medicare for All, but that Biden will push Healthcare and Biotech. They are Hallmarks of his previous work as VP. This messenger RNA technology is likely to unlock successful treatments for many other conditions beyond the WuFlu. They are buy Pfizer, Roche, Squibb, Eli Lilly, Mederma etc. Look up what is in their funds, that will tell you where the money is going.

Things to avoid?

Fossil fuels. They are not into coal and petroleum.

They see continued migration from the urban rust belt Forget commercial realestate in the short run.

They don't see the current deficit spurring inflation anytime soon. They back that up by noting Obama's stimulus trillions did nothing to inflation.

Take all that how you will, but these are the people that are trained and manage HUNDREDS of BILLIONS of dollars. When they buy and sell, the market moves.

These are also the guys who pay their fund managers to underperform.

Wall Street waiting for another stimulus /quantitative easing hit. They are heroine addicts, riding a bubble and waiting for that next hit.

I'm too close to retirement to risk my career earnings with heroine addicts.

And worth 8,000 in 2000 dollars...

Checked to see how much is in a bag of chips, or in the bottle of laundry detergent? What is a new pick up costing these days?

No inflation's rear end...

Folks, GDP was changed in it's calculation (formula) under Obama......

and Inflation metric does not include Food and Energy.......

Btw, anyone remember the AFFORDABLE Care Act? Obamacare? Your premiums will go - said the Muzzie...what did they do?

https://www.bankrate.com/personal-finance/smart-money/is-inflation-higher-than-you-think/

I just sold my Aphria. $10.18. Paid $2.42

I’m buying back some oil too. I’m up on SLB and HAL. I’m buying more MMP and probably XOM just because.

Scheeeit its already 2.79 here in guvna Wolf land

The market should do well for a little while. China is open for business and all the major players have their orders in.

372,000 businesses shut down in NY and Chicago alone.......per Rush L. today.........

Folks, do you really believe the economy will have legs under a Communist regime? Taxes are going up on Corporations and people.

Proceed with caution is my .02

Since those are mostly small businesses which are not publicly traded, wouldn't it be a good thing for stock market companies in the long run?

To your point, I thought long ago that the Left was crushing small biz to transfer biz to Corporate America...........

But remember, when small businesses go under, unemployment goes up...........spending down.

Corporations need consumers..........gainfully employed consumers, or sales, revenue and profit falls - all else equal.

I am no economist. Just an MBA.

You can't have a middle class if you don't have successful small businesses. They are destroying the small businesses to destroy the middle class, and when you don't have a middle class you become like all other third world countries living under tyranny with no freedoms.

I don't disagree with that, but I wonder to what extent they will be able to leverage the Fed Reserve's grip on world monetary policy to print money out of thin air and distribute it in a quasi- UBI scheme. It doesn't make sense to me to kill the cow when you can milk it, so I'm not yet convinced they want to totally destroy America.