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Originally Posted by duck911
Originally Posted by Clarkm
Originally Posted by CashisKing
What we are seeing here is inflated PE ratios.

PE ratios of always demonstrated a certain modicum of sensibility amongst investors.

Modern PE ratios or like a drunk [bleep] saying I will buy drinks for everyone and their wives and Ex-Wives and everyone they know because I feel good.

There is zero rational thought in any of it. But grab ahold of Amazon's coattails if you feel like it. Myself, I will be knee-deep in hard commodities. What is a hard commodity? Something I can physically hold and watch go up in value.


In 1977 FLUKE had a P/E [ price per share of stock / earning per year per share of stock] of 15:1, nearly the highest any stock. The company was growing at 50% per year. We were getting stock options.

The stock market was dead flat from 1967 [I was a child with a social security number for owning stocks] until 1982.

Danaher bought Fluke. Danaher split off Fortive with Fluke. Some of us kept our stock in Danaher.

Today DHR has a p/e ratio of 48:1. The stock is growing fast.


In 1985 my father in law [a college president] was reading stock market logic
https://www.amazon.com/Stock-Market-Logic-Sophisticated-Approach/dp/0793101484

He explained to me how to judge P/E ratios.

He was appalled at how slowly I learned the concepts.

But I eventually got it:

a) High P/E is ok if the company is growing fast.

b) Low P/E is probably a company not growing.

Look out for us dumb guys who know the tricks.







Hach (a water quality testing company, among other industrial testing expertise) has a large facility about 3 miles from my house, and I have 2 close friends who work there. They are a good company in our town.

When Danaher acquired Hach, I bought DHR stock at maybe, $8, IIRC? A BUNCH of it. Sold some along the way, but still have probably half of it. Closed at $238 today.




It seems you are a mask wearing genius


If you are not actively engaging EVERY enemy you encounter... you are allowing another to fight for you... and that is cowardice... plain and simple.



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Originally Posted by CashisKing
Originally Posted by duck911
Originally Posted by Clarkm
Originally Posted by CashisKing
What we are seeing here is inflated PE ratios.

PE ratios of always demonstrated a certain modicum of sensibility amongst investors.

Modern PE ratios or like a drunk [bleep] saying I will buy drinks for everyone and their wives and Ex-Wives and everyone they know because I feel good.

There is zero rational thought in any of it. But grab ahold of Amazon's coattails if you feel like it. Myself, I will be knee-deep in hard commodities. What is a hard commodity? Something I can physically hold and watch go up in value.


In 1977 FLUKE had a P/E [ price per share of stock / earning per year per share of stock] of 15:1, nearly the highest any stock. The company was growing at 50% per year. We were getting stock options.

The stock market was dead flat from 1967 [I was a child with a social security number for owning stocks] until 1982.

Danaher bought Fluke. Danaher split off Fortive with Fluke. Some of us kept our stock in Danaher.

Today DHR has a p/e ratio of 48:1. The stock is growing fast.


In 1985 my father in law [a college president] was reading stock market logic
https://www.amazon.com/Stock-Market-Logic-Sophisticated-Approach/dp/0793101484

He explained to me how to judge P/E ratios.

He was appalled at how slowly I learned the concepts.

But I eventually got it:

a) High P/E is ok if the company is growing fast.

b) Low P/E is probably a company not growing.

Look out for us dumb guys who know the tricks.







Hach (a water quality testing company, among other industrial testing expertise) has a large facility about 3 miles from my house, and I have 2 close friends who work there. They are a good company in our town.

When Danaher acquired Hach, I bought DHR stock at maybe, $8, IIRC? A BUNCH of it. Sold some along the way, but still have probably half of it. Closed at $238 today.




It seems you are a mask wearing genius


Just a smart investor who knew of a VERY successful local business acquired by a decent company who I knew would help them grow.

GFY


The DIPCHIT ADD, after a morning of drinking:

You despair, repeatedly, constantly! daily basis?
A despair ninny.
Sack up, despire ninny.

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Buy the drop. Good Time Charlie just left town.

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Originally Posted by CashisKing
I call 1,700 over-exuberance


How long have you been peddling that "investment advice" here? Let me know and I'll calculate whether you could have beaten primer-inflation, or CV-inflation.

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Correct inflated numbers

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Originally Posted by CashisKing
Originally Posted by Clarkm


Tesla has a PE ratio of 1700.

Just saying


When a company is growing fast, look at the change in revenue.

If there is no revenue, look at investment capitol pouring in and technology progress being made.

I invested in AMZN for 20 years when there was almost no earnings.


There is nothing noble in being superior to your fellow man; true nobility is being superior to your former self. -Ernest Hemingway
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I expect to see a huge increase in dividend payment. The bidet increase in capital gains tax will force it.

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Originally Posted by duck911


Hach (a water quality testing company, among other industrial testing expertise) has a large facility about 3 miles from my house, and I have 2 close friends who work there. They are a good company in our town.

When Danaher acquired Hach, I bought DHR stock at maybe, $8, IIRC? A BUNCH of it. Sold some along the way, but still have probably half of it. Closed at $238 today.




The wife designed synthesizers, calibrators, and meters for Fluke for 40 years.
When Fortive split off with Fluke, her money followed Danaher.
She tells me her DHR is beating my AMZN.


There is nothing noble in being superior to your fellow man; true nobility is being superior to your former self. -Ernest Hemingway
The man who makes no mistakes does not usually make anything.-- Edward John Phelps
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I don't know if anyone here holds GME in any of their accounts, but if so you might want to consider selling in the next few days.

There is a short squeeze on and a few kike hedge funds with big short positions are getting absolutely annihilated right now. Might go down as the greatest squeeze of all time. But the price probably won't hold much longer.

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This Bull Market is in its Early Innings

Feb. 15, 2021 8:35
Rida Morwa - High Dividend Opportunities

Summary
- Following the market is important for any investor.
- Today, we take a look at the market and our outlook.
- What's the best course of action?

Looking for a helping hand in the market? Members of High Dividend Opportunities get exclusive ideas and guidance to navigate any climate. Get started today » Co-produced with Treading Softly

I have long held the belief that knowing where to invest is only half the battle. Investors and retirees need to keep an eye on the skyline as well. Knowing what's happening in the market and the world is important. It will allow you to adjust to coming events so that they do not cause your portfolio harm.

Consider the boat captain for a moment. Imagine if he only paid attention to his crew – made sure they were safe and sound, that his vessel was operating perfectly, and did nothing else. Surely, in open waters, he would likely be OK for a period of time. However, when danger is coming, if the captain is only looking to his vessel and not outwards, they will never know to change course.

Imagine in an extreme example of a vessel headed toward the coast, if the captain never looked up, they wouldn't know of the pending crash! Unfortunately, too many investors invest like this captain. They focus solely on their realm of stocks and if those holdings are doing OK, they don't care about anything else. This leads to issues down the road. It's very important to remain educated and informed. So today, I want to help you with that.

Market Outlook
After the markets pulled back the first week of February, the markets quickly reversed and hit new highs. This is a typical trait of a strong bull market. There always are upside surprises. I expect that any pullbacks are likely to be shallow, and investors should not panic, but rather buy the dips. As always, the doom and gloom analysts did create some panic last week, and as a result, I received messages from the Seeking Alpha community with concerns. The markets proved again that these analysts keep getting it wrong. Unfortunately, bad news always sells better than good news.

The February weakness was triggered by the “WallStreetBets” group causing large institutions to lose billions of dollars. This led them to liquidate positions across the market to cover their losses. When large institutions are forced into selling, it helps derail the otherwise orderly market. The situation seems to have been resolved, which explains why the markets are back on track.

On the economic front, I expect a supercharged recovery over the next two years which will add longevity to this bull market. The market remains attractively valued relative to interest rates. There's no excess in valuations.

There remain trillions of dollars (estimated at $6 trillion) still sitting on the sidelines with many investors overweight bonds, CDs, money market, and cash. Bond prices are supposed to fall significantly with interest rates. As this money moves into equities, this will provide more support for higher stock prices. Add to this high liquidity. More stimulus, low interest rates, and no overvaluations in most sectors, equities are the place to be. The best days are still ahead.

Trends to Note: Long-Term Interest Rates
The main event that could further develop in the future is that the bull market and money printing will result in much higher long-term interest rates and inflation. Note that this is unlikely anytime soon given where the employment level is at today. I don't expect any significant increase in inflation or interest rates over the next two years at least.

However, it's possible to take advantage of the small long-term interest rate increases with high yields. Given that the markets always are forward looking, long-term interest rates have started to slightly rise as evidenced by the 10-year Treasury yields.

[Linked Image from static.seekingalpha.com]

Rising rates make the financial, energy, materials, and residential REITs among the most attractive areas in the markets. Investors need to be aware of the coming trends and adjust accordingly!

Note: that not all stocks in the above sectors will be winners. It depends on your selection. There will be outperformers and underperformers in every sector.

The Technical Situation
The S&P 500 index, the Russel, and the Nasdaq indexes have broken to the upside, reaching all-time highs. It's very likely that we will continue to see that previous consolidation levels offer a certain amount of support. Market breadth has notably improved this week with advance-decline lines returning to positive readings.

We are in an uptrend and that should continue to be the case going forward. I think the S&P 500 is going toward the 4000 level following the consolidation period that we saw. While we may see from time to time "market accidents" or corrections as we saw recently, the downside risk is likely to be limited. All things being equal, any pullback will create a good opportunity to add more positions. This market seems to have only one thing in mind, liquidity and cheap money. The headlines about the COVID-19 vaccinations are another boost as an indication of a stronger economy going forward. At the end of the day, it's liquidity that matters the most for this market today.

Oil Price Situation
The oil picture is brightening in the broader oil market. Crude oil prices are set for the biggest weekly gain since last October. There's confidence that OPEC and its allies are committed to keeping global supplies in check. Oil inventories in China to the U.S. have fallen, while Saudi Arabia confirmed it will keep oil prices unchanged. Note that these higher oil prices have not yet fed through into the earnings of big oil companies, but the future looks bright. It's a good idea to have a small allocation to the sector at a time when nobody wants to touch it. Generally, such situations when there is extreme pessimism is when the big gains are made.

Best Course of Action
My best recommendation is to have a long-term investment view, and not worry about any short-term market fluctuations. The outlook for the next two years looks very bright. If we see any weakness, it would be an opportunity to build positions if you are still sitting on cash. This is a market that will continue to find reasons to go higher due to many strong catalysts such as high liquidity, more stimulus, low interest rates, and no overvaluations in most sectors. My target for the S&P 500 index remains at the 4300 level by year-end. Medium and small-cap stocks are set to outperform the S&P index.

For income investors and retirees, most dividend stocks are primarily "value stocks" today. These value names have lagged behind growth names for a number of years. However, since Oct. 1, 2020, value has started to outperform growth strongly. What's happening? Well, for starters, investors are rotating out of overvalued and expensive growth names into undervalued value. These offer more potential upside for investors looking for capital gains alone.

This means it's pivotal to start getting your idle cash into solid dividend payers before those yields decrease. As the price rises due to strong market conditions, the yield you get for buying them drops. While my target for the S&P 500 index is the 4300 level, "value stocks", including high-dividend stocks, are set to strongly outperform the large indexes, including the S&P index. It's one of the best times to be invested in high dividend stocks.

[Linked Image from static.seekingalpha.com]

For more conservative investors, look to the preferred stocks and "baby bonds" of property REITs, mortgage REITs, BDCs, financials, and energy names to capitalize on solid income with higher yields with lower price volatility. I would strongly encourage you to mix both fixed-income securities and common equities to not only see strong income but opportunities to lock in capital gains.

Conclusion
Today, I've tried to provide you with an eagle's eye view of the market, oil prices, and other important matters. Keep your eye on these trends and know how to adjust your portfolio. Even a slight course adjustment can mean averting larger pains. You need to keep your eye on your crew of picks and the ocean of the market. It can be a difficult task, but it's yours as the captain.

The market is bound for some excellent years ahead and opportunities abound. For the next two years, the best is yet to come. Do not sit out of the market in fear. Be active, be involved, or decide through which means you want to be involved.


"All that the South has ever desired was that the Union, as established by our forefathers, should be preserved, and that the government, as originally organized, should be administered in purity and truth." – Robert E. Lee
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The Market will boom temporarily especially after Covid vaccines are completed for "herd immunity". There is some pent up demand. Now after that demand is satisfied, there will be a crash. Why? Because Democrats are going to raise taxes, increase regulation, go "green". Prices for gasoline, diesel fuel, and fuel oil will rise. Prices for anything manufactured using oil or coal based materials such as plastics, glass making, steel making, metals smelting, etc, will cause everything to rise in price. Agricultural products will rise because of increased fuel costs, insecticide and fertilizer cost. The list of things is long and will cause hyperinflation leading to a recession or depression. The "Green New Deal" will make taxes rise, as well as "free" college education, and "free" healthcare. The Green New Deal will cause blackouts like what is happening now due to the snow, ice, and cold weather causing windmills to not turn and covering solar panels with snow and ice.

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Market Outlook: Feb 28, 2021

by Rida Morwa

There is full panic being spread by the news media about rising long-term interest rates, and their negative impact on equities. As stated in many previous posts, negative news sells much better than positive news, and in this case again, the media took advantage. In fact, the real reason behind the pullback in my opinion is a consolidation pattern more than the week's "headline news". The markets are consolidating before they make their next leg higher. There is also sector rotation taking place beneath the surface, and I will touch on this subject too.

How About the Rising Long Term Rates?
Slightly higher interest rates will not derail this bull market for many reasons:

It is clear that we are heading towards a super-charged recovery, and that overall the markets expect that the economy will be running hot in 2022 and 2023. As we know, the markets are almost always forward looking, and with expectations that the economy is improving, higher long-term interest rates is a very normal phenomenon. In fact, the markets should be cheering that interest rates are moving slightly higher, which is a confirmation that we are on track for sustained growth.

Even with longer-term interest rates rising, let us keep things in perspective. With the 10-year treasury today at 1.5%, it is still around its all-time low levels. As you recall, this rate was at 1.8% in the year 2020.

Even if interest rates rise to 2% which is possible in the year 2022, it is still too low of a rate to compete with equities, and yield next to nothing if we factor in inflation.

The Inflation Factor
Some investors have fears that there will be a sudden spike in inflation. We need to recall that inflation has been stubbornly absent from the economy for several decades, despite all the efforts of the Fed to maintain an inflation target of 2%. Investors, in fact, fret that should inflation move much higher, the Federal Reserve might hike short-term interest rates which Fed Chair Powell has repeatedly stated that this will not happen anytime soon. According to Mr. Powell:

The economy is a long way from our employment and inflation goals", as he reiterated that the Fed wants the economy to run hot, creating jobs along with inflation holding above 2% for some time.

Therefore the Fed will have our backs for a long time, and I don't see any change in policy before end 2022 or later.
Note that the HDO portfolio is actively managed, and we already have a good exposure to stocks that provide some hedge against inflation including floating rate loans, Property REITs and BDCs, CLOs, and Energy. As we head into the year 2022, we will further increase our weighting to such stocks that can provide further hedges, but it is too soon to do so for now.

[Linked Image from static.seekingalpha.com]

For those members who do not mind holding lower paying dividend stocks, I would recommend to buy two ETFs that are both economically sensitive and at the same time a good hedge against future inflation.

+ Materials Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLB)
+ iShares MSCI Global Metals & Mining Producers ETF (PICK)

These two ETFs provide exposure to basic materials and commodities, including:

1. Metal miners including gold, silver, copper, iron, etc.
2. Agriculture companies, farming and fisheries.
3. Construction materials.
4. Some exposure to oil and gas related stocks.

The main difference between XLB and PICK is that XLB is mostly a U.S. exposure while PICK is almost purely an international exposure. I personally like PICK very much because much of the basic materials nowadays come from foreign sources. Both ETFs provide a great hedge against inflation.

Keep in mind that "high yield investing" in general is possibly one of the best hedges against future inflation. The higher the yield, the lesser the impact.

Again, I do not wish to dwell on this subject because it is too early to worry about. Today, inflation remains in check, and unemployment is at higher than normal levels. An aging population and technological efficiencies seen recently are both deflationary.

Sector Rotation
As with most pullbacks, the biggest losers are usually the most overvalued stocks. Most of those were the high-flying tech stocks (Nasdaq related stocks) being the most impacted. Furthermore, there was more discussions this week about hiking tax rates by the Biden administration. This would result in large cap growth companies losing the most if and when such a decision is taken. Frankly, it is highly unlikely that such tax measure will take place before a full economic recovery. So here again, investors' fears are not fully justified. But in anticipation, investors have been rotating from high growth/richly valued stocks, into cheaper stocks. This move has resulted in additional market volatility this week.

The good news for us at HDO is that the vast majority of our holdings are "value stocks" and we did not experience the extent of market declines seen by the large indices. For example the utility group, UTF and UTG, moves were comparatively modest, while our preferred stocks and baby bonds barely moved in price.

The Bottom Line
I remain extremely optimistic about the global economy and about the equity markets. The economy is moving quickly in the right direction, faster than most analysts had expected. Investors should not be worried about the current market jitters and embrace the pullback as a buying opportunity.

The next target for the S&P 500 is at the 4000 level. We have already been in previous consolidation that measured for a move to that level, and we should get there relatively soon. Remember that in order to get that higher move up, consolidation is a process that the markets have to go through. All that is needed is a bit of patience as we keep collecting our dividends. My year-end target remains at the 4300 level or higher. I strongly believe that the performance of our portfolio will be significantly better than all the major indexes, including the S&P500, Nasdaq and the DOW.


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S&P chart looks like the initial stage of it rolling over.


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We welcome new subscribers that have recently joined us. The HDO Welcome Letter outlines the three main things you need to know for getting off to a good start. The following are "quick links" to our live google sheets:

HDO Model Portfolio – March 1, 2021

= = = =

Market Outlook March 7- 2021

These past two weeks, market volatility has picked up significantly. Note that the media has blown out-of-proportion the fact that long-term interest rates have been rising which could derail the bull market. As always, negative headlines sell much better than good news, and the media knows this very well. This may have resulted in some panic among some investors; however, the reason behind the price volatility is quite normal. As explained previously, the market has had a huge run in the past few months, and now it is time for some consolidation. In fact, such consolidation is quite healthy for equities as it helps them build a strong base to resume their way higher. I have been encouraging our members to embrace such volatility and to take advantage by buying the dips.

The bottom line is that the equity markets continued to show signs of resiliency with every pullback being countered by investors buying the dip. Note that the selling has been shallow and short-lived. As stated in previous market updates, the world is swimming in liquidity, and there is virtually no better place to put this excess money to work other than the stock markets. Many folks today remain at home, with few new business opportunities or ventures that are worth investing in, the best place to generate returns is through the stock markets. This is one big reason why stocks are seeing large money inflows and supporting higher prices.

Interestingly, higher long-term Treasury yields don’t necessarily equate to lower stock prices. In fact, investors should be embracing the relatively small increase in longer-term interest rates, because it is an indication that the U.S. economy is on the right track for a strong recovery. A recovery in the economy would result in higher stock prices. In fact, I would be worried if longer-term interest rates were not going up which would mean that the economy is set to stall again.

You see, the market is a forward-looking mechanism and moves based on future expectations. We have to keep in mind that the rise in interest rates is still small and we are today still well below the norms, with long-term rates remaining near their all-time lows despite the recent increases. I remain confident that our fundamentally superior high dividend stocks will keep their recent stellar outperformance.

Keep Focused on the Big Picture
For us investors, we need to keep focused on the large perspective. Today, the markets remain in a very strong uptrend, and there is no reason to fight this bull market or fight the Fed for that matter. The reasons for this continued surge in stocks can be attributed to several factors that we have previously discussed:

Consumer savings are around their highest levels in years. Cash is plentiful and there is no better place to invest other than equities.

The world is awash in liquidity, and more liquidity is set to further flood the markets through new stimulus packages and planned infrastructure spending.

Rising long-term Treasury rates mean that investors are dumping these treasuries and raising cash. This cash is going to find a home somewhere, and it will most likely end up in the equity markets. Therefore I view that rising interest rates for long-term treasuries is actually bullish for stocks.

There remains a "Bubble of Cash" sitting on the sidelines invested in CDs, Money Markets, cash, and low-yielding Treasuries. Much of this cash is bound to find its way to equities, and thus supporting this ongoing bull market.

The Fed Fund rates and short-term interest rates remain near zero, which gives consumers more buying power and cheap borrowing rates for most businesses. Lower interest rates for longer has been re-iterated several times by Fed Chair Powel – most recently last Thursday stating that the economy is far from employment and inflation goals; he gives no sign that the central bank would seek to stem the rise in Treasury yields.

Remember that the last time that the Fed raised interest rates was in late 2016, and it was mostly acknowledged by Fed Officials as a big mistake. Although these rate hikes were small, they had a huge negative impact on the economy, derailing economic growth and quickly dampening inflation. The Fed clearly does not wish to make the same mistake again, and this is their logic behind letting the economy run hot before making any decision to hike short-term rates. The Fed's previous inflation target was set at 2%, an indication of healthy economic growth. However, it has been extremely frustrating for the Fed to reach this inflation level and to maintain it. So now, the Fed will let inflation run above the 2% previous target before taking any decision to put a brake on growth through hiking rates and reducing liquidity from the system.

A Big Rotation Continues Underneath The Surface
The NYSE advance/decline line, which is an indicator of the breadth of the markets, has set a new high recently. There has been no broad-based selling pressure despite the market volatility. The reason is that there is a continuous rotation of money under the surface. The rotation from expensive large-cap stocks into value stocks continues with the Nasdaq index (including the high-flying stocks) strongly underperforming the rest of the indices. This rotation started at the end of the summer last year, and continues to develop in 2021 as seen over the past two months.

Investors are now focused on "value stocks," which are companies viewed as cheap when we compare their prices with metrics such as earnings, sales, and book value. These value stocks have been suffering from underperformance for more than a decade versus growth stocks, and they have a lot to catch up on. It is not a surprise that "value stocks" are back in focus. Historically, value stocks tend to outperform growth stocks when longer-term interest rates start to rise. The reason behind this is that smaller and medium cap companies benefit the most from an improving economy, rather than growth stocks.

Furthermore, all the stimulus by the Government is targeting those smaller companies which are the backbone of the U.S. economy. Also rising long-term interest rates would hurt growth stocks more than smaller companies because much of these large-cap stocks have been borrowing based on low-interest rates in order to support their prices through stock buy-back and expanding their businesses. Clearly, the momentum of their growth will be impacted.

Note that when "value stocks" start outperforming "growth stocks" this trend has historically lasted for many years. I expect this trend to continue for the next three years at least. This is great news for the HDO portfolio which is mostly comprised of high dividend value stocks trading at attractive valuations.

The Risks of Chasing High Flying Stocks: The Case of Zoom
Here, I would like to take the opportunity to highlight one of the high-flying tech stocks that have reached exorbitant valuations. Zoom Video Communications, Inc. (ZM) does not need much introduction, as they have a product that is well known among most investors. The stock had been seeing strong momentum as investors and speculators were piling money over money to take advantage of the "latest technology of the year."

Zoom recently reported their earnings. While earnings on the surface look great, here investors have to dig into the details. The guidance looks a bit ambiguous because of the strong focus on the quarterly growth highlighted instead of the yearly guidance. However, let us look at what ZM is really saying with its guidance:

Q4 saw $882 million in revenue and non-GAAP EPS was $1.22/share for the quarter. So annualizing those results, that is a run-rate of $3.528 billion in revenue and $4.88 in non-GAAP EPS.

In other words, from the Q4 base, ZM is expecting revenue to grow by only 6.8% and it expects to work harder for that revenue, actually experiencing a 25% decline in non-GAAP EPS from their current run-rate.

Today Zoom is trading at a high Price/Earnings ratio of 150 times! What valuation do you put on an interesting tech company that is growing revenues at 5-10% per year? Certainly not a forward P/E ratio of 150+ times. These are insane, euphoric valuations that make no sense whatsoever. We saw these types of extremely high valuations during the "dot-com" bubble, and those stocks that were trading at such expensive valuations saw their shares crash by 70%, 80%, and even more.

ZM is clearly a strong sell at these valuations and given the poor growth going forward. For those who like trading, in fact, ZM is a great short candidate. This is why at HDO we do not chase such speculative stocks, and we would rather build our portfolio slowly but surely with high dividends and reasonable capital appreciation without gambling on high-flying stocks that can ruin investors as the bubble bursts.

Two Main Risks that Could Derail the Bull Market
Here, I would like to highlight two main risks that could derail the current bull market and explain why we should not be worried about these risks. These two main risks are:

- Significantly higher inflation.
- A premature or unexpected move by the U.S. Fed to raise short-term interest rates or reduce quantitative easing.

Risk #1: Inflation Risk
There are several reasons why inflation has been so stubborn, and frustrating Fed officials. Although the world is flooded with liquidity (one main factor for higher inflation) there are many counter-inflationary factors at play today. This would include technological advances that have increased employment efficiencies, and higher than normal unemployment rates.

Importantly, demographics is another big factor dampening inflation. Today, the U.S. and most developed countries are seeing an aging population, and in many cases a declining population in places such as Japan, Italy, Spain, Portugal, Lithuania, Estonia, Romania, Bulgaria, Greece among others. As more folks decide to retire, their spending budgets tend to reduce. As investors (and HDO members) we need to keep in mind that the biggest driver for economic growth is a growing population. As the population grows, with many younger people joining the workforce, and their demand for housing, consumer goods, clothing, transportation, travel, and entertainment tends to put stimulate the economy and put upward pressure on inflation. This is why past recessions were relatively short-lived when population growth in developed nations was high. However today, we are in a totally different environment. Let us take the United States for example. Back in 1950, the U.S population was growing at a rate above 1.5%. Today this rate is barely at 0.5% as we can see in the chart below:

[Linked Image from static.seekingalpha.com]
Source

This trend is not only impacting U.S. population but also the global population growth is seeing steep declines.

[Linked Image from static.seekingalpha.com]

This is also the reason why in previous recessions, it was relatively easy for the Fed to fight off recessions and get back to economic growth relatively fast. However, nowadays, the global economy is much more fragile than it used to be 20 or 30 years ago due to the demographic factors discussed above.

Risk #2: The Fed making a premature or unexpected move to slow down the economy
As stated above, many Fed officials have acknowledged that raising interest rates too soon in 2016 was a very big mistake. The Fed is clearly aware of the risks of acting too soon to put a curb on economic growth. Based on this, any wrong move by the Fed could result in a long and painful recession that will be very difficult to overcome. This is a situation that the U.S. Fed and European Commission are trying to avoid at all costs. I personally do not see any change in the Fed policy anytime soon or at least over the next two years.

Bottom line
The health of the global economy and where it is heading is perhaps the biggest driver for equities. I always like to remind our members that keeping a close eye on the forces at play that could impact the economy is probably more than 50% of the due diligence required to be a successful investor. A rising tide will lift all boats, and the opposite is also true.

Here at HDO, our main objective is to keep collecting high yields no matter how the global economy is playing out. But we need to adjust from time to time our portfolio's direction based on changing economic conditions in order to maximize the returns for our members. For example:

During periods of slower economic growth, we will overweight fixed income, preferred stocks, utilities, and other high-yielding stocks and sectors such as utilities and telecom among others. Basically, we focus on those sectors that are basic necessities and/or those with demand that is relatively inelastic no matter how the economy is doing.

On the other hand, when the economic outlook is strong, we like to overweight those sectors that are economically sensitive to bank on those stocks that are set to strongly benefit from the situation. Picking the right stocks can be tricky because several other factors come to play such as the state of interest rates, inflation expectations, the sector outlook, barriers to entry, the competitive environment, the sustainability of the dividends among others.

Today, some of the best sectors to be invested in include Property REITs, mortgage REITs, the financial sector (BDC companies), CLOs, and Energy. The healthcare sector is another good one that has lagged the general markets despite strong tailwinds and fast growth, and presents a great entry point. We are planning over the next 30 days to have small re-allocations to our portfolio which would consist of reducing our exposure to defensive stocks, and allocating more to economically sensitive stocks and sectors.

Best Course of Action
There is no need to fight this bull market. I am personally staying the course and not worrying about the current market volatility. As with every year, we are likely to see the occasional market correction, but I expect any correction to be relatively shallow and short-lived. Furthermore, we could very well see over the next few weeks some more market consolidation, and I would consider every pullback as a buying opportunity.

For us income investors, our main objective is to collect a high level of income in good and bad times. Our model portfolio targeting +9% mostly invested in value stocks is our best strategy for sustainable high returns. Today, recessionary risks are extremely low, and bear market risks are mostly off the table for the next two years at least. The best course of action, as far as our model portfolio is concerned, is to remain invested in this market and to navigate the market volatility without stress.

Again, we remain in a strong uptrend supporting this secular bull market. The next target for the S&P 500 is at the 4000 level, likely to be reached relatively soon. The following target would be the 4300 level later on during the year. I remain very confident that the next two years are going to be very rewarding for investors, and looking forward to solid returns for our portfolio in terms of both income and capital gains. Our high-yield portfolio is mainly composed of "value dividend stocks" which are set to strongly outperform the S&P 500 index, so I expect that our returns will be stellar.

As always, I am continuously following the factors at play (both economic and market forces) and will make sure to keep our members up-to-date in case of any change of outlook.

= = = =
HDO prices will increase soon for New Subscribers
HDO prices will increase on March 31, 2021.
Current members will not be impacted as they are grandfathered for life at their original subscription rate.
For current members on the 'Monthly Plan', it is an opportunity to switch to the annual plan and save up to 41% before the price hike.
For more details about the price increase, please refer to the following link:

Announcement: Rate Increase For New Subscribers

To modify your subscription, click on subscription settings, and then look for "High Dividend Opportunities" and select "Upgrade to Annual".


"All that the South has ever desired was that the Union, as established by our forefathers, should be preserved, and that the government, as originally organized, should be administered in purity and truth." – Robert E. Lee
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Looking like a fine day for the market today....


Sic Semper Tyrannis
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Originally Posted by Dutch
Looking like a fine day for the market today....


yesterday too. I temporarily jumped back into tech last week. We'll see how long it lasts

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Laughing. Give me another distressed duplex, thank you.


Slaves get what they need. Free men get what they want.

Rehabilitation is way overrated.

Orwell wasn't wrong.

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disappointed NRA member

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Originally Posted by local_dirt
Laughing. Give me another distressed duplex, thank you.


Yeah, I've laughed all the way to the bank.

Started trading 4/20 and I'm up a quarter million as of this week, It hasn't been easy, but time and patience = rewards.
Hopeful that my energy plays, RETS, etc. will get me to a half million by EOY+...Always suspected that this was the market of a lifetime.

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Originally Posted by broomd
Originally Posted by local_dirt
Laughing. Give me another distressed duplex, thank you.


Yeah, I've laughed all the way to the bank.

Started trading 4/20 and I'm up a quarter million as of this week, It hasn't been easy, but time and patience = rewards.
Hopeful that my energy plays, RETS, etc. will get me to a half million by EOY+...Always suspected that this was the market of a lifetime.



Good job!!! Another quarter mil this year !!!

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Originally Posted by local_dirt
Laughing. Give me another distressed duplex, thank you.



I looked at buying duplexes but if you don’t have to pay rent and the states support this much too risky. Gonna get worse under this administration

Maybe in a few years after real estate correction

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