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I have four fertilized eggs in an incubator. Assuming that each egg, if it produces a chick, has a 50% chance of being a rooster, what are the odds that all four will be roosters, assuming all four hatch? What are the odds that three will be? What are the odds that two will be? What are the odds that only one will be? Zero roosters? How do you arrive at that? Thanks.
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1/(2x2x2x2) for the odds of all roosters, 1/(2x2x2) for 3 roosters or hens, etc. It's been quite a while since I took a course that covered statistics/probability material, but I think it's right. 1/16 of a chance for all roosters or hens.
"Social order at the expense of Liberty is hardly a bargain” de Sade "He who'll not reason is a Bigot, he who cannot is a Fool, and he who dares not is a Slave."SirWilliamDrummond
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Each egg has a 1/2 chance of being male. The odds are the same as flipping a coin the same way four times in a row.
You have eight possible outcomes. Coin 1 either H or T Coin 2 either H or T Coin 3 either H or T Coin 4 either H or T
So zero H and four T Or one H and three T Or two H and two T Or three H and one T Or four H and zero T
If I remember properly you will have odds 1/8 that all will be male and 1/8 that all will be female.
Then 1/4 that one will be male or 1/4 that one will be female.
And 1/2 that you will have an even split.
I fail to remember the calculations. I am sure there is a derivative to calculate the curve. But that was too many years ago.
Maybe someone will correct me if I have erred.
ETA, I think Ballistic has the correct formula. 1 X 2 to the fourth for all male and 1 x 2 to the fourth for all female. 1 x 2 to the third for three males and 1 x 2 to the third for three females 1 x 2 to the second for two males and 1 x 2 to the second for two females
Last edited by Idaho_Shooter; 04/15/21.
People who choose to brew up their own storms bitch loudest about the rain.
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1/(2x2x2x2) for the odds of all roosters, 1/(2x2x2) for 3 roosters or hens, etc. It's been quite a while since I took a course that covered statistics/probability material, but I think it's right. 1/16 of a chance for all roosters or hens. 1/16 - 6.25 - 1 rooster 2/16 - 12.5% - 2 roosters 3/16 - 18.75% - 3 roosters 4/16 - 25% - 4 roosters
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1/(2x2x2x2) for the odds of all roosters, 1/(2x2x2) for 3 roosters or hens, etc. It's been quite a while since I took a course that covered statistics/probability material, but I think it's right. 1/16 of a chance for all roosters or hens. 1/16 - 6.25 - 1 rooster 2/16 - 12.5% - 2 roosters 3/16 - 18.75% - 3 roosters 4/16 - 25% - 4 roosters Elkslayer, something is wrong here. You have it twice as likely to get four of the same sex as to get an even split. And you have the odds of getting three females at 15/16 while odds of getting three males is 3/16.
People who choose to brew up their own storms bitch loudest about the rain.
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HHHH HTHH THHH HTHT
HHHT HTTH TTHH THTH
HHTT HHTH TTTH THHT
HTTT TTTT TTHT THTT
4 roostrrs (heads) 1/16 3 heads 4/16 2 heads 6/16 = 3/8 1 head 4/16
The difference between genius and stupidity is that genius has its limits.- Albert Einstein
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1/(2x2x2x2) for the odds of all roosters, 1/(2x2x2) for 3 roosters or hens, etc. It's been quite a while since I took a course that covered statistics/probability material, but I think it's right. 1/16 of a chance for all roosters or hens. 1/16 - 6.25 - 1 rooster 2/16 - 12.5% - 2 roosters 3/16 - 18.75% - 3 roosters 4/16 - 25% - 4 roosters Elkslayer, something is wrong here. You have it twice as likely to get four of the same sex as to get an even split. And you have the odds of getting three females at 15/16 while odds of getting three males is 3/16. Ballistik had it right. You have to get the common denominator first. 2x2x2x2, then you factor it out. There are two possibilities for each egg. You're only accounting for one with the eight denominator. if you take your 4H x 4T = 16, you get the same correct common denominator you need to run the formula correctly.
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Campfire Oracle
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1/(2x2x2x2) for the odds of all roosters, 1/(2x2x2) for 3 roosters or hens, etc. It's been quite a while since I took a course that covered statistics/probability material, but I think it's right. 1/16 of a chance for all roosters or hens. I’m going with this until mathman sees this! 🤣 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 for all four to be roosters.
Last edited by ironbender; 04/15/21. Reason: Friggen autocorrect
If you take the time it takes, it takes less time. --Pat Parelli
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Campfire Oracle
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HHHH HTHH THHH HTHT
HHHT HTTH TTHH THTH
HHTT HHTH TTTH THHT
HTTT TTTT TTHT THTT
4 roostrrs (heads) 1/16 3 heads 4/16 2 heads 6/16 = 3/8 1 head 4/16 Huh? Same probability of 3 as for 1? Nope.
If you take the time it takes, it takes less time. --Pat Parelli
American by birth; Alaskan by choice. --ironbender
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HHHH HTHH THHH HTHT
HHHT HTTH TTHH THTH
HHTT HHTH TTTH THHT
HTTT TTTT TTHT THTT
4 roostrrs (heads) 1/16 3 heads 4/16 2 heads 6/16 = 3/8 1 head 4/16 Huh? Same probability of 3 as for 1? Nope. No that part is right. 1 T and 3 H is as likely as 3 T and 1 H.
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1/(2x2x2x2) for the odds of all roosters, 1/(2x2x2) for 3 roosters or hens, etc. It's been quite a while since I took a course that covered statistics/probability material, but I think it's right. 1/16 of a chance for all roosters or hens. I’m going with this until mathman sees this! 🤣 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 for all four to be roosters. 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 6.25% (1 rooster) .5 x .5 x .5 x .5 = 6.25% (1 being the numerator for 1 rooster gives you the correct % there) 2/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 2/16 = 12.5% ( 2 roosters) 3/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 3/16 = 18.75% (3 roosters) 4/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 x 1/2 = 4/16 = 25% (4 roosters)
Last edited by ElkSlayer91; 04/15/21.
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Campfire Oracle
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Nope
Probability HAS to reduce to get more roosters. 4 roosters is not MORE likely than 2 or 3.
Last edited by ironbender; 04/15/21.
If you take the time it takes, it takes less time. --Pat Parelli
American by birth; Alaskan by choice. --ironbender
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Bangflop! another skinning job due to .260 and proper shot placement.
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Nope
Probability HAS to reduce to get more roosters. 4 roosters is not MORE likely than 2 or 3.
1/16 - 6.25% - 4 rooster 2/16 - 12.5% - 3 roosters 3/16 - 18.75% - 2 roosters 4/16 - 25% - 1 roosters I believe you are right. I just need to work the formula out.
Last edited by ElkSlayer91; 04/15/21.
"He is far from Stupid"
”person, who happens to have an above-average level of intelligence”
– DocRocket (In reference to ElkSlayer91)
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Campfire Oracle
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If you take the time it takes, it takes less time. --Pat Parelli
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Campfire Ranger
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highest probability: two of each second highest: one of either sex and three of the other...equal probability either way lowest probability: all of one sex, either male or female
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1/(2x2x2x2) for the odds of all roosters, 1/(2x2x2) for 3 roosters or hens, etc. It's been quite a while since I took a course that covered statistics/probability material, but I think it's right. 1/16 of a chance for all roosters or hens. Bingo, or Yahtzee
Whatever you said...everyone knows you are a lying jerk. That's a bold assertion. Point out where you think I lied. Well?
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To those pushing gender identity........and not capable of statistics.....this is a bullshit question......
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Gonna bump this for when mathman shows up... Ballistik is on it though...
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