Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire Home purchase

THat's what the creepy banker dude was trying to say to me yesterday, but I don't pretend to understand it. Was basically saying when rates are higher, the banks in their bottomless graciousness have more money to loan out to people, but when rates are low they don't make any money. The poor dears. Fugk the banks, fugk the landlords and absentee homeowners.

Good for you. You planned ahead

They cant, that's why the govt keeps printing trillions of dollars to make it worse on the middle class.

Wait for the crash and take land I want for hunting.

Back in 2007, everyone I know told me that I had to buy something ASAP or I'd never own a home because it would only go higher. It just felt crazy and I waited. Then we had a real estate recession until 2011 and I bought a house about 30% lower. Today feels the same to me like there's just no way the market can support it's own weight for much longer.

People feel locking in at a low rate is the reason to buy. Problem is, the rates have trended down for 40 years now and are near zero. That long term trend down has given people and property brokers the leverage they need to just keep jacking prices higher for decades. The current inflation terrifies me for the property market frankly. The Feds weapon against inflation is higher rates.

Commodity prices are high, millions of people flat out refuse to work, even though nearly every major employer in America has jobs they can't fill. That is going to force wages higher. And the government just keeps printing money. Commodity prices, money supply and wages are three biggest causes of inflation. If we see a reversal in the nearly half century down trend in interest rates, it will create the reverse effect on the property market.

Instead of raising home prices for every incremental drop in rates, peoples' buying power will marginally drop for every incremental rise in interest rates. That could create a persistent overhead resistance through which prices struggle to break. It'll be interesting to see how it plays out.

My girlfriend's daughter lives in a nice suburban neighborhood in north Atlanta. Nice big brick houses going for $400K and up from there. Monica told me that last week, a house went on the market for $425K. It sold in ten minutes for $465K, to a buyer in Chicago who had never even seen the house. Crazy times in real estate.

Ive been thinking the same. We're in for some interesting times and yet most Americans seem oblivious and keep buying more toys, more vacations, new vehicles, houses they cant afford.

People have a paradigm that long term property just goes up in price, well, because it has for the better part of our entire lives. A certain amount of modest property inflation should be expected, but what we've seen is the combined effect of that modest inflation coupled with the down trend in rates since the 70s. Most people alive today have not experienced the impact of a longer term up trend in rates and it's impact on property prices. We may be seeing the perfect storm of factors that could cause that trend reversal to happen.

Im hoping it does and can jump in again. I still remember my parents mortgage rates and the economy in the mid to late 70's.. Good times

I know many people here would say cash is that last thing you want right now. But I sold my house a couple years ago, took my profits, went debt free, put it in the stock market, and have been saving since then. And even my market investments are hedged right now. I am mostly cash and my cash balance is going up month after month. It may be brilliant or it may be stupid, time will tell. I'm hoping that when the time is right, I'm still debt free and sitting on a pile of cash to jump in and take advantage of the blood in the streets. We'll see.

Did the same. Sold house two years ago. Dumped he proceeds in the market April 2020. Sitting on the sidelines still. Bought some land with some of the profits, paid off any debt.

We'll see

Our area, wages are rising fast. Real fast. With wages goes the costs of goods and services, it’s inevitable. The liberal socialists wanted a “living wage” and they’re getting it, only problem is the cost of “living” is going right up with it. Inflation is here to stay, you can’t inject this level of liquidity into the broader economy and not devalue the dollar.
I’m more concerned with the good chance the USD becomes no longer the worlds reserve currency, or that were forced into a govt controlled digital currency. Cash is the last place I’d be.

Quit hatin’ on people for making $$ Gruff, It’s not a bad thing.
They like spending it which winds up in our pockets eventually.

I pretty much agree. It's economics 101. National Real Estate association predicts that the market is still short close to 4 million homes. My prediction is that at this point there are so few houses on the market and very few people want to put their house on the market because they have no way to replace it. I think that prices will level off through the winter because that's the slowest time anyway and people have their kids in school. If someone decides they are going to sell their house they need to have an idea where they are going to move and what house they are going to buy. New construction is minimum 6 months behind and the fact that people can't sell their home and get into something in a timely fashion will also result in the pricing leveling off, or at least the increase will slow down some.

Those people predicting the "bubble bursting" is way off on that. There has only been one market bubble in 40 years and that was created by government making it so easy to buy houses people got in over their heads. The bubble in 2008 is most likely the ONLY one most people will ever see. If people missed that opportunity they will likely never get another. When construction catches up with demand so people can actually get in the house they are selling, demand will pick up again.

California still has the demand in the sense that if you put a reasonable house on the market it will sell in a fairly short time. As more people leave (and it will NOT happen in a short time) even those prices will level off. The average person can't just pick up and move with out a job waiting for them somewhere. At this point no one knows where the jobs will be and what will be required of you if you take a job. If you don't want to take the vaccination, then you don't want to move and find out the job you took will require you to get the vaccination of you are out of a job again.

At least that's the way that I see it, at this point in history.

That wasn't the case in the Carter years. Each time the interest rates went up people got more panicky to buy something before the rates go up again. That's what's going to happen again if the rates go up. Many folks have missed opportunities to jump in when they could afford it, and interest rates are going to make that more difficult. At the same time wages are finally going up. Inflation has got to be effected with the amount of money that's being printed. Schumer is pushing to vote on this new bill, that is not even finished. It's said to be just over a trillion, but they haven't had an opportunity to actually price it out, and rumor has it, it will be well over 3 trillion before it's over then there will be another bill spending more money. Interest rates have to go up at some point.

hah ain't hatin on anybody for making their way in this world. At least now with the laws in place, if you read the fine print you know what your'e getting in bed with in regards to the bankers.

Absentee landowners? lol. If their shidt burns down and they lose their ass on the rebuild I won't be shedding a tear. You want it, then live there, or free it up for folks to raise their families there and spend your money on crossdressing hookers and wine in the city.

I know that's not a popular position here, with the retirees and multiple homeowners. So fugking be it.

Believe it or not housing has even taken off here in dirtyville.

We were gonna buy another house(rental) but they are way overpriced. I'm not spending $$$ for a house in these parts.

Why in the world would someone move from the frying pan to the fire.

Trickle down is non-sense. Capital is spent with the intention of minimizing trickle down. That is the basis of capitalism. I'm not against capitalism but we can't delude ourselves with the idea large wealth aggregations are good for everyone.

The problem with large aggregations of wealth is the large aggregation of power that follows. That power is ALWAYS used to reduce everyone else's power. That is what gives us the oligarchy.

Hatin' on landlords? WTH, Dude?

If he only knew what it takes..