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Joined: Jun 2004
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Last time I had any visibility, the Chinese provinces had enormous debt, not readily visible. That isn't going to help.
International debt is a little like a circular firing squad. When the house of cards collapses, the trick is to be one of the survivors.
Be not weary in well doing.
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Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 8,302
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Campfire Outfitter
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Last time I had any visibility, the Chinese provinces had enormous debt, not readily visible. That isn't going to help.
International debt is a little like a circular firing squad. When the house of cards collapses, the trick is to be one of the survivors. The first to know about China is everything they tell you is a lie. There are shell games being played with debt in china, look at some of the articles about how Evergrande is structured. Mind boggling. but I doubt unusual. The question is how much exposure do western banks have, I think it is a lot more than we know.
"Life is tough, even tougher if your stupid"
John Wayne
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Joined: Jun 2012
Posts: 4,606
Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
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Every western bank , investor , and manufacturer that gets ripped off deserves it. It has been obvious for well over a decade that China is completely corrupt and out to steal from anyone and everyone.
‘TO LEARN WHO RULES OVER YOU, SIMPLY FIND OUT WHO YOU ARE NOT ALLOWED TO CRITICIZE’
Conspiracy theorists are the ones who see it all coming…
You are the carbon they want to eliminate !
I’m Uber Deplorable Ultra MAGA !
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Joined: Dec 2015
Posts: 8,069
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Joined: Dec 2015
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The first to know about China is everything they tell you is a lie. There are shell games being played with debt in china, look at some of the articles about how Evergrande is structured. Mind boggling. but I doubt unusual. The question is how much exposure do western banks have, I think it is a lot more than we know.
You can "bank" on it.
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Joined: Nov 2015
Posts: 14,371
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China will make a Hail Mary attempt on Taiwan if successful WW3 has just started and the 1930s and 40s Japanese pacific island grabbing is child’s play
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Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 16,610
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 16,610 |
"Hey jackass, get your government off my freedom."
MOLON LABE
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Joined: Feb 2009
Posts: 11,916
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Seems that their .gov got tired of those folks making a pile of money and they wanted to rein in the capitalistic moves going on.
When they control everything it's not hard to do.
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Joined: Jan 2002
Posts: 12,835
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For one DJT pushed hard on China
But a key preexisting condition (maybe he knew since real estate is his thing) is that for more than 15years China has been building these new cities. Because of the restrictive nature of the Chinese system real estate was one of the few investment vehicles available to the masses...so they invested in these empty cities. There is also a long standing cultural aspect of the Chinese where many desire to own land/property what have you....
Additionally tge "One Child" Policy has created all sorts of knock on effect issues. The first to arise was a shortage of females with which the males could breed, which led to much slower population growth. Which led to these new cities remaining empty...
Those are just some of the root issues... China has more than 30 million built, unsold residential residences (more than the total number of homes in Germany). That's a bit of an issue. However, there is an additional 100 MILLION residential properties that have been purchased, but not occupied (i.e. bought as an investment rather than to live in). That's enough living space for 340 million people. Now, there's a lot of Chinese, but it may take a bit of time to work through that. 30% of China's economy is new construction. Take that away, and this collapse will sooner or later, and things will have to change. Real estate prices, and with it the vast majority of the wealth of the majority of the Chinese with it, will have to drop, either through price drops or inflation.
Sic Semper Tyrannis
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Joined: Jan 2016
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Campfire Oracle
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Campfire Oracle
Joined: Jan 2016
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Evergrande default, Chinese shipbuilding bankruptcies, Chipmaker Tsinghua Unigroup facing default in the billions....what the hell is happening? Can the CCP bail these outfits out? Hang Seng seems stable. Will it cause a worldwide dip? Nobody saw the collapse of the Soviets coming...but they were not big players in global economy. As Maggie Thatcher loved to say...eventually you run out of other peoples money. Did you ever consider the possibility that Xi is against the controlling NWO cabal and Hilry/Walmart shipping? 
Ecc 10:2
The heart of the wise inclines to the right, but that of a fool to the left.
A Nation which leaves God behind is soon left behind.
"The Lord never asked anyone to be a tax collector, lowyer, or Redskins fan".
I Dindo Nuffin
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Joined: May 2009
Posts: 754
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Yet they still have the technology and initiative to bother us with all kinds of technology failures, shut down our energy pipelines, etc.
While they are spectacularly overbuilt, they also know enough to work on resolving that - they have imploded quite a few nearly-finished residential high-rises recently in order to reduce costs. They also have figured out they don't have enough young folks, so they've relaxed the birth restrictions.
And, even if/when they implode, what will the result be and how much will it hurt us? And since they already know how communism works, how many chinese "refugees" would the dimocrats welcome into the US?
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Campfire Tracker
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I'd bet the Chinese are taking economic advice from the libs, dims, progressives here in the U.S.
"Whensoever the General Government assumes undelegated powers, its acts are unauthoritative, void, and of no force." --Thomas Jefferson
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Joined: Jan 2012
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Campfire Ranger
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Posts: 26,484 |
One thing of note[that I had forgotten]:
China's economy was limping along when DJT took office.
They weren't doing so well.
I would guess that 2017-19 helped them when we were booming, then the pandamdemic hit.
Where were they economically early 2020?
FJB & FJT
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Joined: Jan 2002
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They also have figured out they don't have enough young folks, so they've relaxed the birth restrictions.
? Geez, they figured out that having one kid only creates a long term problem.... who'da thunk! That's some smart fellers! Meanwhile, back in the real world, the Chinese of childbearing age are nearly universally responding to the increased child maximum with derision and unbelief that anyone would even consider having more than 1 child. Imagine that,after several generations of only children, too self absorbed and narcissistic to see the value or want to set aside time to raise a family? Who could see that coming?
Sic Semper Tyrannis
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Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 95,657
Campfire Oracle
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Campfire Oracle
Joined: Jan 2016
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I'd bet the Chinese are taking economic advice from the libs, dims, progressives here in the U.S. Seems more like the reverse to me. Biteme is their man in the WH and destroying our economy and country as they are directing him to do.
Ecc 10:2
The heart of the wise inclines to the right, but that of a fool to the left.
A Nation which leaves God behind is soon left behind.
"The Lord never asked anyone to be a tax collector, lowyer, or Redskins fan".
I Dindo Nuffin
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Joined: Dec 2014
Posts: 9,112
Campfire Outfitter
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OP
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Joined: Dec 2014
Posts: 9,112 |
Chinese coal prices have more than doubled this year, but by law their utility companies can only raise power prices 10%. Unsustainable. What will win, loss of face when Xi has to start buying Australian coal again? Or, let the Chinese economy crash, and save face. Or, raise utility rates to raise to market values in direct opposition to communist ideals. This is a good example of 'central planning', the government, any government, controlling everything from healthcare to utilities.
Well this is a fine pickle we're in, should'a listened to Joe McCarthy and George Orwell I guess.
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