24hourcampfire.com
24hourcampfire.com
-->
Previous Thread
Next Thread
Print Thread
Hop To
Page 3 of 4 1 2 3 4
Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 20,824
Campfire Ranger
Offline
Campfire Ranger
Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 20,824
Originally Posted by gregintenn
Originally Posted by CashisKing
Originally Posted by Hogwild7
Inflation is driving the prices of stocks up. Just like fuel and food.


About my opinion also...

It is not that the stock market is actually going up in VALUE... it is that cash is being substantially watered down with inflation (current AND future).

In a nutshell... a $200k market holding in 2020 is worth $240k now, but there is NOT $40k in extra buying power... because of the inflation (current AND future).

So how do you propose one positions one’s self against steep inflation?


Cash flowing real estate, bought before the current bubble. With substantial equity.
These things need preparation for well in advance.
I have no idea how you just now position yourself for the extreme inflation that's coming.
Maybe gold? maybe bitcoin? dunno


Originally Posted by Judman
PS, if you think Trump is “good” you’re way stupider than I thought! Haha

Sorry, trump is a no tax payin pile of shiit.

Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 21,782
Likes: 7
C
Campfire Ranger
Online Content
Campfire Ranger
C
Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 21,782
Likes: 7
Originally Posted by gregintenn
Originally Posted by CashisKing
Originally Posted by Hogwild7
Inflation is driving the prices of stocks up. Just like fuel and food.


About my opinion also...

It is not that the stock market is actually going up in VALUE... it is that cash is being substantially watered down with inflation (current AND future).

In a nutshell... a $200k market holding in 2020 is worth $240k now, but there is NOT $40k in extra buying power... because of the inflation (current AND future).

So how do you propose one positions one’s self against steep inflation?


Physically held hard commodities...

We just put up two metal building in WV... the industry on fabrication shops for these is fairly small (Mt. Airy NC services much/most of the East Coast)... One of the more established material supply house locked in on $30 MILLION in the tubing and siding steel (that really had to have been a ALL IN BET for them)...

Anyway... they "hog tied" a truly massive inventory of steel at say $2 per linear foot. Price is currently at $4.80 per linear foot... that would make (for example... their $30m investment worth $72 million).

I am not telling anyone to buy $30m in tube steel unless you have balls the size of bolders... but I am saying that any "Physically held hard commodities"... will rise with or well beyond inflation as long as that hard commodities has demand at the downstream side need.

What Physically held hard commodities should you buy? That all depends on what your expertise is and what you believe the future holds.

I bought 10 jugs of R-22 a few years back at about $200 each... someone told me R-22 is selling for $800 a jug now... that kinda thing.


If you are not actively engaging EVERY enemy you encounter... you are allowing another to fight for you... and that is cowardice... plain and simple.



Joined: May 2004
Posts: 5,200
I
Campfire Tracker
Offline
Campfire Tracker
I
Joined: May 2004
Posts: 5,200
Originally Posted by CashisKing
Originally Posted by gregintenn
Originally Posted by CashisKing
Originally Posted by Hogwild7
Inflation is driving the prices of stocks up. Just like fuel and food.


About my opinion also...

It is not that the stock market is actually going up in VALUE... it is that cash is being substantially watered down with inflation (current AND future).

In a nutshell... a $200k market holding in 2020 is worth $240k now, but there is NOT $40k in extra buying power... because of the inflation (current AND future).

So how do you propose one positions one’s self against steep inflation?


Physically held hard commodities...

We just put up two metal building in WV... the industry on fabrication shops for these is fairly small (Mt. Airy NC services much/most of the East Coast)... One of the more established material supply house locked in on $30 MILLION in the tubing and siding steel (that really had to have been a ALL IN BET for them)...

Anyway... they "hog tied" a truly massive inventory of steel at say $2 per linear foot. Price is currently at $4.80 per linear foot... that would make (for example... their $30m investment worth $72 million).

I am not telling anyone to buy $30m in tube steel unless you have balls the size of bolders... but I am saying that any "Physically held hard commodities"... will rise with or well beyond inflation as long as that hard commodities has demand at the downstream side need.

What Physically held hard commodities should you buy? That all depends on what your expertise is and what you believe the future holds.

I bought 10 jugs of R-22 a few years back at about $200 each... someone told me R-22 is selling for $800 a jug now... that kinda thing.


I bought 200 .243 Hornady bullets for $50 last week. Does that count? As for commodities, I own 3 pieces of real estate and own lots of energy and REIT stocks. I am commodity heavy.


But the fruits of the spirit is love, joy, peace, patience, kindness, goodness,faithfulness, Gentleness and self control. Against such things there is no law. Galations 5: 22&23
Joined: Sep 2020
Posts: 600
W
Campfire Regular
Offline
Campfire Regular
W
Joined: Sep 2020
Posts: 600
Are you saying to buy all that stuff that just went up in price, but before it went up in price?

As soon as it was evident that the Fed was going to bail debtors and asset holders out to infinity, the cost of debt started plunging and the price of assets started sailing. You could have bought it anytime along the way up, but you would have been betting that it would continue to rise some amount thereafter with no way of knowing.

The answer to how to position oneself against steep inflation is to borrow as much money as you can and buy any dollar-denominated asset. If you have ridden some increase, you're faced with calling/timing the top or you'll miss some upside or suffer some downside that has the potential to be stunningly sharp. If you would have anticipated the potential for rapid changes in the market trajectory, you would have bought assets that trade easily with low overhead, but you would still be without the means to time your trades.

At this point, the positions against steep inflation have already been taken. If you're buying or holding investments now, it's hard to make a case that stocks or real estate in general are a bargain. I'm not predicting that they won't realize gains from today's premium prices -- there is a strong willingness for the Fed and Treasury to keep monetizing debt and inflating asset prices and they will keep that going as long as they can deliver the fake gains voters are buying. Just as well, asset inflation isn't equally distributed and speculators can drive up some a lot more than others such that speculative pickers who win bets will think that they've figured something out that others don't understand.

If the market has already priced in inflation, as some of you have been saying, you should be asking how should one position themselves against steep deflation.

Joined: Feb 2010
Posts: 16,076
G
Campfire Ranger
OP Online Content
Campfire Ranger
G
Joined: Feb 2010
Posts: 16,076
Originally Posted by Western_Juniper
Are you saying to buy all that stuff that just went up in price, but before it went up in price?

As soon as it was evident that the Fed was going to bail debtors and asset holders out to infinity, the cost of debt started plunging and the price of assets started sailing. You could have bought it anytime along the way up, but you would have been betting that it would continue to rise some amount thereafter with no way of knowing.

The answer to how to position oneself against steep inflation is to borrow as much money as you can and buy any dollar-denominated asset. If you have ridden some increase, you're faced with calling/timing the top or you'll miss some upside or suffer some downside that has the potential to be stunningly sharp. If you would have anticipated the potential for rapid changes in the market trajectory, you would have bought assets that trade easily with low overhead, but you would still be without the means to time your trades.


At this point, the positions against steep inflation have already been taken. If you're buying or holding investments now, it's hard to make a case that stocks or real estate in general are a bargain. I'm not predicting that they won't realize gains from today's premium prices -- there is a strong willingness for the Fed and Treasury to keep monetizing debt and inflating asset prices and they will keep that going as long as they can deliver the fake gains voters are buying. Just as well, asset inflation isn't equally distributed and speculators can drive up some a lot more than others such that speculative pickers who win bets will think that they've figured something out that others don't understand.

If the market has already priced in inflation, as some of you have been saying, you should be asking how should one position themselves against steep deflation.

So I should go out and borrow a bunch of money? My bible says the borrower is slave to the lender. That doesn’t bode well for your advice.

IC B2

Joined: Nov 2016
Posts: 177
E
Campfire Member
Offline
Campfire Member
E
Joined: Nov 2016
Posts: 177
Originally Posted by gregintenn
Originally Posted by OldHat
Pretty amazing. Add in the crypto mania and all I can say is I am amazed at how money just rains from the sky. LOL

I think it rains from.gov printing presses. Add in real estate prices and it’s starting to get unnerving.


Earlier this year I sold two prior homes of mine that I had turned into rentals. The net proceeds sitting in an account, six weeks ago I googled "best stocks to buy today". I read through several online articles and picked 10, and bought at about 15-20k each. 6 weeks later I'm up 12%. Better than letting it sit there and do nothing.

Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 20,824
Campfire Ranger
Offline
Campfire Ranger
Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 20,824
Theoretically borrowing money at low interest rates during inflation is smart..... the fly in the soup is you have to have cash flow to service that debt... no guarantees.... but hey, no risk no reward


Originally Posted by Judman
PS, if you think Trump is “good” you’re way stupider than I thought! Haha

Sorry, trump is a no tax payin pile of shiit.
Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 20,824
Campfire Ranger
Offline
Campfire Ranger
Joined: Aug 2009
Posts: 20,824
Originally Posted by electram
Originally Posted by gregintenn
Originally Posted by OldHat
Pretty amazing. Add in the crypto mania and all I can say is I am amazed at how money just rains from the sky. LOL

I think it rains from.gov printing presses. Add in real estate prices and it’s starting to get unnerving.


Earlier this year I sold two prior homes of mine that I had turned into rentals. The net proceeds sitting in an account, six weeks ago I googled "best stocks to buy today". I read through several online articles and picked 10, and bought at about 15-20k each. 6 weeks later I'm up 12%. Better than letting it sit there and do nothing.


That's some high level speculation right there..... sheep will be fleeced..... lmao


Originally Posted by Judman
PS, if you think Trump is “good” you’re way stupider than I thought! Haha

Sorry, trump is a no tax payin pile of shiit.
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 16,610
Campfire Ranger
Offline
Campfire Ranger
Joined: Nov 2008
Posts: 16,610
I went long on volatility call options a couple days ago.


"Hey jackass, get your government off my freedom."
MOLON LABE
Joined: Dec 2013
Posts: 44,356
Likes: 7
Campfire 'Bwana
Offline
Campfire 'Bwana
Joined: Dec 2013
Posts: 44,356
Likes: 7
Originally Posted by irfubar
Originally Posted by gregintenn
Originally Posted by CashisKing
Originally Posted by Hogwild7
Inflation is driving the prices of stocks up. Just like fuel and food.


About my opinion also...

It is not that the stock market is actually going up in VALUE... it is that cash is being substantially watered down with inflation (current AND future).

In a nutshell... a $200k market holding in 2020 is worth $240k now, but there is NOT $40k in extra buying power... because of the inflation (current AND future).

So how do you propose one positions one’s self against steep inflation?


Cash flowing real estate, bought before the current bubble. With substantial equity.
These things need preparation for well in advance.
I have no idea how you just now position yourself for the extreme inflation that's coming.
Maybe gold? maybe bitcoin? dunno





With some cash on hand for opporunities.


Slaves get what they need. Free men get what they want.

Rehabilitation is way overrated.

Orwell wasn't wrong.

GOA member
disappointed NRA member

24HCF SEARCH
IC B3

Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 10,378
Campfire Outfitter
Offline
Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Feb 2003
Posts: 10,378
[Linked Image from cdn.legacyresearch.com]

I lost lots of money before 1994 by playing the market.
I got whipsawed. I sold because it went down. Things like Cisco and Microsoft that would have been great if I had held.

I have been all in and hold with big tech since 1994.
This works better for me.


There is nothing noble in being superior to your fellow man; true nobility is being superior to your former self. -Ernest Hemingway
The man who makes no mistakes does not usually make anything.-- Edward John Phelps
Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 21,782
Likes: 7
C
Campfire Ranger
Online Content
Campfire Ranger
C
Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 21,782
Likes: 7
Originally Posted by Western_Juniper
... you should be asking how should one position themselves against steep deflation.


EXACTLY... some sectors will absolutely deflate...

A guy that took his life savings and bought rare baseball cards is going to be in a world of hurt.

It is about knowing what to buy and at what price. That is a very personal decision based on each man's expertise.


If you are not actively engaging EVERY enemy you encounter... you are allowing another to fight for you... and that is cowardice... plain and simple.



Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 21,782
Likes: 7
C
Campfire Ranger
Online Content
Campfire Ranger
C
Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 21,782
Likes: 7
Originally Posted by local_dirt
Originally Posted by irfubar
Originally Posted by gregintenn
Originally Posted by CashisKing
Originally Posted by Hogwild7
Inflation is driving the prices of stocks up. Just like fuel and food.


About my opinion also...

It is not that the stock market is actually going up in VALUE... it is that cash is being substantially watered down with inflation (current AND future).

In a nutshell... a $200k market holding in 2020 is worth $240k now, but there is NOT $40k in extra buying power... because of the inflation (current AND future).

So how do you propose one positions one’s self against steep inflation?


Cash flowing real estate, bought before the current bubble. With substantial equity.
These things need preparation for well in advance.
I have no idea how you just now position yourself for the extreme inflation that's coming.
Maybe gold? maybe bitcoin? dunno





With some cash on hand for opportunities.



EXACTLY... fluid hard commodities.

Some hard commodities are instant cash... If a man had a large stockpile of lead bricks... those bricks can be turned into cash in 15 minutes at the local scrap yard.

I happen to be sitting on a few 35-40 MPG vehicles... worth maybe $3k-4k each... Let gas prices climb to $10/gallon and they will be worth 3x what I paid for them.

Went looking for a fourth Dodge Cummins truck the other day... found a clean 1996 4WD extra cab with 117k miles... it was listed at $38,000...

Couple of years ago that was a $12k truck at best.


If you are not actively engaging EVERY enemy you encounter... you are allowing another to fight for you... and that is cowardice... plain and simple.



Joined: Jun 2020
Posts: 10,166
Campfire Outfitter
Offline
Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Jun 2020
Posts: 10,166
I think the government is going to do everything they can to keep the market strong right up until they can’t anymore. So it’s going to be the best investment going. The powerbrokers have their money in the market so they have a vested interest. Gold, silver ect. only start to make sense if there is a complete collapse. Land and real estate make a lot of sense but if it comes right down to it and there is a collapse the government will likely seize it. Or do as we saw even during Covid when they froze property owners from evicting non paying renters. When or if there’s a complete collapse nothing will be safe but until then the market and real estate are the best option with some small percent in hard assets and a little cash in hand.

Joined: Dec 2013
Posts: 44,356
Likes: 7
Campfire 'Bwana
Offline
Campfire 'Bwana
Joined: Dec 2013
Posts: 44,356
Likes: 7
Originally Posted by CashisKing
Originally Posted by local_dirt
Originally Posted by irfubar
Originally Posted by gregintenn
Originally Posted by CashisKing
Originally Posted by Hogwild7
Inflation is driving the prices of stocks up. Just like fuel and food.


About my opinion also...

It is not that the stock market is actually going up in VALUE... it is that cash is being substantially watered down with inflation (current AND future).

In a nutshell... a $200k market holding in 2020 is worth $240k now, but there is NOT $40k in extra buying power... because of the inflation (current AND future).

So how do you propose one positions one’s self against steep inflation?


Cash flowing real estate, bought before the current bubble. With substantial equity.
These things need preparation for well in advance.
I have no idea how you just now position yourself for the extreme inflation that's coming.
Maybe gold? maybe bitcoin? dunno





With some cash on hand for opportunities.



EXACTLY... fluid hard commodities.

Some hard commodities are instant cash... If a man had a large stockpile of lead bricks... those bricks can be turned into cash in 15 minutes at the local scrap yard.

I happen to be sitting on a few 35-40 MPG vehicles... worth maybe $3k-4k each... Let gas prices climb to $10/gallon and they will be worth 3x what I paid for them.

Went looking for a fourth Dodge Cummins truck the other day... found a clean 1996 4WD extra cab with 117k miles... it was listed at $38,000...

Couple of years ago that was a $12k truck at best.





Cash, good move. Hard goods are a great strategy. Been doing the same for years. Learned that from my Dad, Grandpa, and uncles. Didn't / doesn't matter - cars, trucks, guns, houses, boats, tractors, generators, welders whatever.


Slaves get what they need. Free men get what they want.

Rehabilitation is way overrated.

Orwell wasn't wrong.

GOA member
disappointed NRA member

24HCF SEARCH
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 5,817
O
Campfire Tracker
Offline
Campfire Tracker
O
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 5,817
Originally Posted by local_dirt
Cash, good move. Hard goods are a great strategy. Been doing the same for years. Learned that from my Dad, Grandpa, and uncles. Didn't / doesn't matter - cars, trucks, guns, houses, boats, tractors, generators, welders whatever.

Ive driven by a few places like that. When you drive by sometime you can detect someone walking through the inventory. LOL

Joined: May 2014
Posts: 5,817
O
Campfire Tracker
Offline
Campfire Tracker
O
Joined: May 2014
Posts: 5,817
The problem with hard goods is they require maintenance and storage space. I don't disagree in their value, but there is a limit obviously.

Joined: Sep 2020
Posts: 600
W
Campfire Regular
Offline
Campfire Regular
W
Joined: Sep 2020
Posts: 600
Originally Posted by gregintenn
Originally Posted by Western_Juniper
Are you saying to buy all that stuff that just went up in price, but before it went up in price?

As soon as it was evident that the Fed was going to bail debtors and asset holders out to infinity, the cost of debt started plunging and the price of assets started sailing. You could have bought it anytime along the way up, but you would have been betting that it would continue to rise some amount thereafter with no way of knowing.

The answer to how to position oneself against steep inflation is to borrow as much money as you can and buy any dollar-denominated asset. If you have ridden some increase, you're faced with calling/timing the top or you'll miss some upside or suffer some downside that has the potential to be stunningly sharp. If you would have anticipated the potential for rapid changes in the market trajectory, you would have bought assets that trade easily with low overhead, but you would still be without the means to time your trades.


At this point, the positions against steep inflation have already been taken. If you're buying or holding investments now, it's hard to make a case that stocks or real estate in general are a bargain. I'm not predicting that they won't realize gains from today's premium prices -- there is a strong willingness for the Fed and Treasury to keep monetizing debt and inflating asset prices and they will keep that going as long as they can deliver the fake gains voters are buying. Just as well, asset inflation isn't equally distributed and speculators can drive up some a lot more than others such that speculative pickers who win bets will think that they've figured something out that others don't understand.

If the market has already priced in inflation, as some of you have been saying, you should be asking how should one position themselves against steep deflation.

So I should go out and borrow a bunch of money? My bible says the borrower is slave to the lender. That doesn’t bode well for your advice.


The bible also says, "sell all that thou hast, and distribute unto the poor, and thou shalt have treasure in heaven: and come, follow me."

To be sure, borrowing money wasn't my advice. It was my answer and a facetious one to the wrong question. The question it answered was based on the presumption of steep inflation. If I made any advice, it was to doubt this assumption and consider instead the possibility of deflation. The fact is, the economy is overwhelmingly being driven by influences taken by the Fed, Treasury, and Congress to counteract unprecedented deflationary powers. All the stops have been pulled out to force inflation by any means possible. The only reason these radical measures have been undertaken is due to impending deflation, recession and economic collapse. We can see that it has temporarily forestalled some of those results. A bet on inflation continuing indefinitely is a bet that they can sustain the effect indefinitely.

Borrowing and buying is the rational course to pursue an increase in wealth prior to certain inflation, but it does indeed lead to slavery. "They that will be rich fall into temptation and a snare, and into many foolish and hurtful lusts, which drown men in destruction and perdition." As the Lord said, we cannot serve two masters. Consider also that if borrowing leads to servitude, how that bodes for our nation and everyone participating in the acts bringing about the massive surge in (borrowed) money supply.

Joined: Jun 2020
Posts: 10,166
Campfire Outfitter
Offline
Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Jun 2020
Posts: 10,166
Originally Posted by OldHat
The problem with hard goods is they require maintenance and storage space. I don't disagree in their value, but there is a limit obviously.

Yep. I see those items as things to be stocked up on for personal use. For most people it isn’t practical to inventory them for future sale as a means to invest or retirement and overtime they become obsolete to varying degrees.

Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 553
Campfire Regular
Offline
Campfire Regular
Joined: Jan 2007
Posts: 553
I can't predict market moves 1 to 5 hours from now, much less 1 to 5 years but I am very certain I'll get hit by capital gains taxes if I sell today. So TINA - There Is No Alternative for me but to continue to hold my present stocks. I'll hold what I have and maybe buy a bit more from time to time. Also maybe Series I Savings Bonds. Present rate is 7.12 per cent, resets with the inflation rate as calculated by Washington.

Page 3 of 4 1 2 3 4

Moderated by  RickBin 

Link Copied to Clipboard
AX24

407 members (1Longbow, 17CalFan, 160user, 10ring1, 219DW, 10Glocks, 33 invisible), 2,035 guests, and 1,153 robots.
Key: Admin, Global Mod, Mod
Forum Statistics
Forums81
Topics1,192,124
Posts18,483,776
Members73,966
Most Online11,491
Jul 7th, 2023


 


Fish & Game Departments | Solunar Tables | Mission Statement | Privacy Policy | Contact Us | DMCA
Hunting | Fishing | Camping | Backpacking | Reloading | Campfire Forums | Gear Shop
Copyright © 2000-2024 24hourcampfire.com, Inc. All Rights Reserved.



Powered by UBB.threads™ PHP Forum Software 7.7.5
(Release build 20201027)
Responsive Width:

PHP: 7.3.33 Page Time: 0.165s Queries: 55 (0.016s) Memory: 0.9264 MB (Peak: 1.0601 MB) Data Comp: Zlib Server Time: 2024-05-02 12:00:21 UTC
Valid HTML 5 and Valid CSS