Seems all nonsense to me. With the technology and precision in drones these days why aren’t countries just supplying those to Ukraine? Forty mile long convoy sounds like a forty mile long kill box just Taylor made for drone service.
Osky
A woman's heart is the hardest rock the Almighty has put on this earth and I can find no sign on it.
Long range view….. Putin doesn’t want a NATO member on his western border and as in decades ago, he’s trying to get his buffer back. A no fly zone would present numerous nightmares as everyone has laid out.
Now, what happens if and when he takes over Ukraine, and then has a NATO member on his western flank? Who goes next?
Russia has a buffer. The Baltic states are already NATO members but they’re so small that Russia hasn’t invaded and we’ve not tried to position more than tripwire amounts of troops there. Any large units stationed in a tiny Baltic state would be extremely vulnerable. If Estonia were to do to its sizable Russian population what Ukraine was doing or block access to the Russian enclave on the coast the Russians would invade immediately. It was brain dead to invite the indefensible Baltic states into NATO. They’re joining the E.U. would have been enough to bind them to Europe without having the NATO commitment to go to war with Russia. All are former satellite states of the Soviet Union and have substantial Russian minorities. Those countries playing stupid games internally could easily drag NATO into war.
‘TO LEARN WHO RULES OVER YOU, SIMPLY FIND OUT WHO YOU ARE NOT ALLOWED TO CRITICIZE’
Conspiracy theorists are the ones who see it all coming…
Long range view….. Putin doesn’t want a NATO member on his western border and as in decades ago, he’s trying to get his buffer back. A no fly zone would present numerous nightmares as everyone has laid out.
Now, what happens if and when he takes over Ukraine, and then has a NATO member on his western flank? Who goes next?
Very good point. And what does China do? They will move on Taiwan soon and why not? Look at our pathetic loser of a president.
Ukraine is roughly 800 miles across, so 1600 mile round trip with no time spent on target, were the planes based on the border. About the distance from New Orleans to Chicago as the crow flies is 800 miles. The distance from NYC to the Mississippi river is about 850 miles. So an area roughly the size of the USA east of the Mississippi if you exclude New England and Florida.
The shortest distance from the Polish Baltic shore to the closest teeny bit of Ukraine is ~275 miles. Carrier ops in the Black Sea? Only if we don;t ever want to see the carriers again, this side of the water. And were I Russia, I would endeavor to make the passage into the Black Sea a gauntlet.
Were the USA and NATO to get serious about a no-fly zone in Ukraine, it would take months of prep and would be the equivalent of waging war. It would include "boots on the ground" in Ukraine. USA & NATO might prevail, but at a steep cost, even if we don;t start a nuclear war.
Just for the hypothetical US/NATO would most likely be flying land based from the NATO countries bordering Ukraine and not doing carrier OPS and the airspace over Keiv would be the priority.
How far into Ukraine the tanker support would penatrate would test the risk adversion of the USAF.
F-22s, F-15s, and F-35s on High CAP would probably be able to defend the tankers and it's not like Russia has many jets to lose.
Sounds like a good plan to esculate the situation but if not here then when does crazy Vlad keep pushing until it happens?
Not a great situation and a schitt sandwich.
Best solution for us and the World is that the Russians bog down and Ukraine bleeds them dry but that's going to suck for the Ukraine people.
They probably should have armed up the population sooner than last week and we should have been sending more NLAWS, Stingers, and Javelins.
Watched one commentator tonight. Are we already in WWIII and just don't know it?
The end result of this will be an eastern coalition formed of nations that America is dependent on. When that happens, the American dollar is going to take a *major* hit.
Forcing the World to use Dollars as the reserve currency and for trading energy has been a tax we applied to the rest of the world. One could argue we were and still are paid very well for being the World's Policeman.
Only we can print up Dollars and the rest of the World has to use them for energy and trade.
Losing the Petro Dollar/Reserve Currency status will cost the USA big time.
John Burns
I have all the sources. They can't stop the signal.
No, we should not be sending a single rifle or bullet to Ukraine, nor spending a single dollar or life defending Ukraine.
If Biden and company think it's a good idea, then it is bad for America.
Putin is not Hitler. He may have some plans for reunification of parts of the USSR. Those parts are populated with Russians. But Putin is not bound on world domination. Were he, he could have already wiped out half the US with first strike nukes.
Then we could respond, and the people of the world could once again crawl out of the stone age.
Several things I don't quite understand: This 15, 20, or maybe 40 mile long Russian convoy has been stalled for what 3 days now, I believe? WTF? They are supposedly too short on fuel to move? Again WTF? Surely they can read a map or do an internet search and determine that it is X miles or kilometers from where they start to their objective. OK, now do a simple calculation of how much fuel do you need to get said convoy from here to there and allow for a reasonable reserve. It ain't rocket science. Supposedly they are also short on food. Pretty much the same equation: How many troops in the convoy times the daily combat ration per soldier times the number of days before they can reasonably be resupplied. Again, it ain't rocket science. Any military leader understands this. So, what is wrong here? I really have a hard time believing that Russia is incapable of supplying these needs. Are the Ukrainians attacking and disrupting their supplies? Nothing on the news to indicate this that I have seen. Maybe happening, but not being reported? It is not just curious, but downright striking to me that supposedly this up to 40 mile long convoy is just almost stationary for 2 or 3 days lined up in plain sight that appears unmolested. They should be under constant attack. Do the Russians have enough close air cover to prevent any and all attacks? Obviously, I'm not there on scene, but I am confident the answer is a resounding no. For one thing, if they had enough fuel for the aircraft it would take to provide 100% air cover for the convoy, they would have enough fuel to move the damned tanks, trucks, APCs, etc., 15 or 20 more miles to their objective. I'm telling you, something is bad wrong with this picture. Supposedly, the Russians are having serious morale problems and some of the troops are claimed to be sabotaging the equipment to prevent moving forward. Well, maybe, but I really find that hard to believe to any meaningful extent. It would be wonderful if true. Maybe, the Russian commanders are trying to stall this in an effort to get Putin to change his mind, or maybe somehow get rid of him. I think this unlikely, but seriously, what do I know? Or, maybe Putin is using this mega stalled convoy as bait, tempting a sympathetic nation to attack it giving Putin an excuse to attack one or more other countries. Damned if I know, but I do know that something is not quite right here. The Russians may be the bad guys, but they ain't stupid. JMHO,YMMV
"...why, land is the only thing in the world worth working for, worth fighting for, worth dying for,... because it is the only thing that lasts."
Several things I don't quite understand: This 15, 20, or maybe 40 mile long Russian convoy has been stalled for what 3 days now, I believe? WTF? They are supposedly too short on fuel to move? Again WTF? Surely they can read a map or do an internet search and determine that it is X miles or kilometers from where they start to their objective. OK, now do a simple calculation of how much fuel do you need to get said convoy from here to there and allow for a reasonable reserve. It ain't rocket science. Supposedly they are also short on food. Pretty much the same equation: How many troops in the convoy times the daily combat ration per soldier times the number of days before they can reasonably be resupplied. Again, it ain't rocket science. Any military leader understands this. So, what is wrong here? I really have a hard time believing that Russia is incapable of supplying these needs. Are the Ukrainians attacking and disrupting their supplies? Nothing on the news to indicate this that I have seen. Maybe happening, but not being reported? It is not just curious, but downright striking to me that supposedly this up to 40 mile long convoy is just almost stationary for 2 or 3 days lined up in plain sight that appears unmolested. They should be under constant attack. Do the Russians have enough close air cover to prevent any and all attacks? Obviously, I'm not there on scene, but I am confident the answer is a resounding no. For one thing, if they had enough fuel for the aircraft it would take to provide 100% air cover for the convoy, they would have enough fuel to move the damned tanks, trucks, APCs, etc., 15 or 20 more miles to their objective. I'm telling you, something is bad wrong with this picture. Supposedly, the Russians are having serious morale problems and some of the troops are claimed to be sabotaging the equipment to prevent moving forward. Well, maybe, but I really find that hard to believe to any meaningful extent. It would be wonderful if true. Maybe, the Russian commanders are trying to stall this in an effort to get Putin to change his mind, or maybe somehow get rid of him. I think this unlikely, but seriously, what do I know? Or, maybe Putin is using this mega stalled convoy as bait, tempting a sympathetic nation to attack it giving Putin an excuse to attack one or more other countries. Damned if I know, but I do know that something is not quite right here. The Russians may be the bad guys, but they ain't stupid. JMHO,YMMV
That's quite the paragraph.
Short answer is that logistics (getting the stuff need to the place it's needed) is what wins wars. It's really hard.
A huge convoy on roads is very easy to stop and very hard to get going.
How much fuel does one need to plan for when things are stopped but the troops need heat and keep engines running for days?
The weather has much of Ukraine a mud pit so no off road travel and if all lanes are full how does a fuel truck get forward to resupply a BMP blocking everything?
Add in the fact most of the Russians had no idea they were going to shell Kiev. How motivated is the GI Slav to go blow up people he thought were pretty much his countrymen?
One thing for sure is that none of us really know what is really happening over in Ukraine and we are being fed propaganda from all sides.
John Burns
I have all the sources. They can't stop the signal.
Short answer is that logistics (getting the stuff need to the place it's needed) is what wins wars. It's really hard.
A huge convoy on roads is very easy to stop and very hard to get going.
How much fuel does one need to plan for when things are stopped but the troops need heat and keep engines running for days?
The weather has much of Ukraine a mud pit so no off road travel and if all lanes are full how does a fuel truck get forward to resupply a BMP blocking everything?
Add in the fact most of the Russians had no idea they were going to shell Kiev. How motivated is the GI Slav to go blow up people he thought were pretty much his countrymen?
One thing for sure is that none of us really know what is really happening over in Ukraine and we are being fed propaganda from all sides.
What JB wrote, with bells on it. Or bold face, at the least.
An easily-accessible book on the topic is Marin van Creveld's Supplying War. Supplying War: Logistics from Wallenstein to Patton, Cambridge University Press, 1977, ISBN 0-521-21730-X (2nd ed, 2004, ISBN 0-521-54657-5) https://smile.amazon.com/Supplying-War-Logistics-Wallenstein-Patton/dp/0521546575/ref=sr_1_1?crid=2HUPSZ10GMKLE&keywords=martin+van+creveld+supplying+war&qid=1646317861&sprefix=Martin+van+Creveld%2Caps%2C177&sr=8-1
Not encyclopedic, but a great place to start. And a great place to understand: 1. How log was managed in the past. (90-95% of the mass of log was picked up along the way, like a plague of locusts). 2. How shoestring the log of Germans in early WWI and during their WWI offensives was. 3. How the Americans would have never left the UK had they listened to our log guys 4. How super-detailed log plans, like other war plans, never survive contact with the enemy.
Creveld covers operations during WWII in that part of the world. The Standard Narrative (AH so dumb! Did not plan to fight in winter, so jerries freeze! Ha-ha!) is complete BS. AH and the Staff-Os planned for plenty of material, to include winter items. But they did not plan on the rail & road situation in that part of the world to be so horrifyingly awful.
Regards,
deadlift_dude “The very first essential for success is a perpetually constant and regular employment of violence.” ----Fred Rogers
Having deployed to fly Provide Comfort, Northern Watch, Southern Watch and Deny Flight "no-fly" zones and the logistics behind them are enormous. Not to mention, step one is have air superiority and that means open combat.
Ward Carroll covers it pretty well in this video.
If something on the internet makes you angry the odds are you're being manipulated
Every time a question like this comes up I see several commenters saying we should take no direct action against Russia, that we should not risk nuclear war and that the thought of getting involved in any capacity is stupid.
My question to those making these comments is when should we get involved and take direct action?
When there's a direct threat to the US and not just Joe/Hunter Biden's grift?
Define "direct" and why is an indirect threat okay?
Having deployed to fly Provide Comfort, Northern Watch, Southern Watch and Deny Flight "no-fly" zones and the logistics behind them are enormous. Not to mention, step one is have air superiority and that means open combat.
Ward Carroll covers it pretty well in this video.
Ward Carroll spent to much time whining Never Trump for me to give him another Klick.
Dudes a dipschitt that might be right about as often as a busted watch.
Old time Tomcat RIO.
John Burns
I have all the sources. They can't stop the signal.
Having deployed to fly Provide Comfort, Northern Watch, Southern Watch and Deny Flight "no-fly" zones and the logistics behind them are enormous. Not to mention, step one is have air superiority and that means open combat.
Ward Carroll covers it pretty well in this video.
Ward Carroll spent to much time whining Never Trump for me to give him another Klick.
Dudes a dipschitt that might be right about as often as a busted watch.
Old time Tomcat RIO.
"too"
Originally Posted by 16penny
If you put Taco Bell sauce in your ramen noodles it tastes just like poverty
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