As we anxiously await the CPI release, I wanted to share the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago final advance forecast for March’s retail trade and food service sales excluding motor vehicle and parts dealers yesterday. The forecast, if accurate, does not bode well for transportation providers with a real-centric shipper portfolio. The plot I’ve made averages the weekly predictions for March and removes inflation using the Chicago Fed’s forecast for inflation for this combination of sectors using a deflator from the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Thoughts:
•Seasonally and inflation adjusted sales are predicted to have declined 4.2% in March from February. That is 30 basis points lower than the initial forecast’s decline of 3.9% two weeks ago.
•But one thing to keep in mind with these seasonally adjusted “declines”. Focusing solely on the “retail ex auto” portion, in 2018, not seasonally adjusted but inflation adjusted sales for this combination of sectors in March was 15.4% above February; the same figure is 13.4% for 2019. Seasonally adjusted real sales were flat for both months. What this is telling me is that we saw retail trade ex auto sales in March increase less than we would expect. Note, since March is 3 days longer than February, we would naturally expect higher retail sales, especially in sectors like grocery stores.
•On a not inflation adjusted (i.e., nominal) basis, the Chicago Fed is predicting a seasonally adjusted drop of 2.9%. I think consensus forecast is something like ~0.5% growth. If this huge miss occurs, expect a rough day on Thursday morning on Wall Street, as we will see a lot of headlines about a “recession indicator flashing red,” and the like. But I want to point out one thing: even with such a drop, we would still just be returning to the pre-COVID trendline (estimated as January 2019 – February 2020). Thus, I don’t view this as an indicator a recession is imminent and, instead, suggest it indicates a change of consumer behavior due to both inflation and the pandemic seemingly winding down in the USA.
Implication: the Chicago Fed’s forecast for March retail and food service ex auto sales, if accurate, is likely to jolt the stock market in two days. However, we should avoid the temptation of saying this is indicative of a recession and, instead, focus more on understanding how US consumers are changing their spending patterns.
Anything above 4% is bad ... twice that is heinous. They'll call it (the CPI) here in a few minutes somewhere around 8.5% .... but we all know it's much closer to 10%-12% right now if not higher.
The CCR is so high as well combined with soaring debt ... we're sitting on a time bomb. And the unemployment numbers are more like 15% rather than the 3.5% they've been claiming.
We're being lied-to 24/7/365 anymore these days.
What you think about, you do ... what you do, you become. In a nation where anything goes ... eventually, everything will. We're almost there.
Hey, it will be tempered with the lie he has whipped unemployment.
Which is ridiculous.
I think - do not know - but most people don't really care too much about unemployment numbers.
1. They're employed so it doesn't apply 2. They're unemployed but not looking (A LOT of people lately) 3. They're unemployed, looking and particularly picky about their next job (a few people today) 4. They're unemployed and can't find work (hard to believe)
So if you're 1 or 2- what do you care about the number? If you're 3 - you don't care about the number because you do have employment options but aren't taking them 4 - doesn't really exist
So Joe will tout the number but as a practical matter - to the man on the street, it's a nothing burger until we're at a point where most everyone is #4 - 1930 style. We're not there yet.
Never thought I'd say it, but blaming Trump as a kneejerk reaction isn't working. It's never their own fault. They have to find another villain.
Now they blame Putin for all of their woes.
OK, blame Putin, then they need to explain how the leader of a Communist Country can single handily destroy the US Economy (supposedly the most powerful country in the world) and also explain to us why The Biden Administration’s Economic Policies are so fragile that anyone that wants to destroy our Economy can and will.
If they wish to blame Putin, explain how he is able to take down the greatest most powerful country on the planet without firing a shot in our direction. Where are our counter measures and where is our defense against this?
The answer is simple, there is no Defense against a fictional enemy.
Last edited by steve4102; 04/12/22.
Give a man a fish and he eats for a day. Give a man a welfare check, a forty ounce malt liquor, a crack pipe, an Obama phone, free health insurance. and some Air Jordan's and he votes Democrat for a lifetime.
They claim housing is up only 5% from last year. It's at least twice that. It's a large part of the calculation and I know they're lying about that. They're claiming 8.5% overall but in reality I think it's closer to 20%.
![[Linked Image from i.ibb.co]](https://i.ibb.co/g6GMsL1/Putin.png)
![[Linked Image from i.imgur.com]](https://i.imgur.com/bvpmlMz.jpg)
