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https://www.bloombergquint.com/gadfly/russia-ukraine-war-u-s-is-running-out-of-weapons-aiding-kyiv

America is following an “arsenal of democracy” strategy in Ukraine: It has avoided direct intervention against the Russian invaders, while working with allies and partners to provide the Kyiv government with money and guns.

That strategy, reminiscent of U.S. support for Britain in 1940-41, has worked wonders. Yet as the war reaches a critical stage, with the Russians preparing to consolidate their grip on eastern Ukraine, the arsenal of democracy is being depleted.

That could cause a fatal shortfall for Ukrainian forces in this conflict, and it is revealing American weaknesses that could be laid bare in the next great-power fight.

Of all the support the U.S. and its friends have provided Ukraine, arms have mattered the most. Deliveries of drones, antitank and anti-aircraft weapons, ammunition and other capabilities have helped Ukraine wreak havoc on Russian forces even as Moscow has pummeled the country’s industrial base.

General Mark Milley, the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Congress that the West has delivered 60,000 antitank weapons and 25,000 anti-aircraft weapons to Kyiv. The Pentagon is now laying plans to rush additional artillery, coastal defense drones and other materiel to Ukraine. The White House on Wednesday announced a new $800 million package including helicopters and armored personnel carriers.

But President Joe Biden never planned for a war like this. The assumption was that Russia would quickly conquer much of the country, so the U.S. would be supporting a simmering, low-intensity Ukrainian insurgency. Instead, Ukraine’s successful resistance has led to an ongoing, high-intensity conventional fight, with prodigious consumption of munitions and intense attrition of key military assets.

Pentagon officials say that Kyiv is blowing through a week’s worth of deliveries of antitank munitions every day. It is also running short of usable aircraft as Russian airstrikes and combat losses take their toll. Ammunition has become scarce in Mariupol and other areas.

This is presenting Western countries with a stark choice between pouring more supplies into Ukraine or husbanding finite capabilities they may need for their own defense.

Germany has declined to transfer tanks to Ukraine on grounds that it simply cannot spare them. Canada quickly ran short on rocket launchers and other equipment that the Ukrainians desperately need. The U.S. has provided one-third of its overall stockpile of Javelin anti-tank missiles. It cannot easily deliver more without leaving its own armories badly depleted — and it may take months or years to significantly ramp up production.

Before the U.S. entered World War II, President Franklin Roosevelt and his military advisers engaged in intense debates about whether the U.S. should rush weapons to a beleaguered Britain or hang onto them in case America had to defend itself. Biden’s arsenal-of-democracy strategy is reaching a similar inflection point in Ukraine.

Kyiv will require far more Western support to beat back Russian forces gathering in the east, where relatively open terrain is less favorable to the defense. It will also need more sophisticated weapons, such as tanks and aircraft, to deny Russia a decisive advantage — and perhaps take the offensive if Moscow’s eastern offensive falters. Stout Ukrainian resistance has given Kyiv a reasonable chance of winning this war, but the cost of any victory, in equipment no less than lives, will be astounding.

For the same reason, the war in Ukraine is a sobering preview of the problems the U.S. itself would face in a conflict against Russia or China. If forced to go to war in Eastern Europe or the Western Pacific, Washington would spend down its stockpiles of missiles, precision-guided munitions and other critical capabilities in days or weeks. It would probably suffer severe losses of tanks, planes, ships and other assets that are sophisticated, costly and hard to replace.

During World War I, the offensives of 1914 led to “shell famine” as the European combatants exhausted their arsenals. Get ready for “missile famine” if there is a great-power war.

n the world wars of the last century, America’s unmatched manufacturing base ultimately powered it to victory. But today, replenishing the free world’s arsenal might not be so easy.

American economic leadership is no longer based primarily on manufacturing. Shortages of machine tools, skilled labor and spare production capacity could slow a wartime rearmament effort. The U.S. can’t quickly scale up production of Stinger missiles for Ukraine, for example, because the workforce needed to do so no longer exists.

American stockpiles of key weapons are smaller than one might imagine, partly because of production constraints and partly because most of the Pentagon’s roughly $750 billion budget goes to manpower, health care and things other than bullets and bombs.

Don’t bet against the world’s leading economy — and all of its democratic allies — in a long war. But don’t think that America would effortlessly produce what it needs to win.

The problem isn’t insoluble. Greater investments in the defense industrial base and more aggressive purchasing and stockpiling of key munitions can help. The creation of a reserve industrial corps (civilians who have basic peacetime training so they can contribute to wartime production) is worth exploring. Key allies, such as Japan, may be able to help the U.S. surge production in shipbuilding and other areas.

Small wars typically preview what is to come in bigger wars. The Ukraine conflict is showing what it will take to keep the arsenal of democracy equal to the task.


"To compel a man to furnish funds for the propagation of ideas he disbelieves and abhors is sinful and tyrannical." -- Thomas Jefferson

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How are they gonna get all that equipment into Ukraine? In the back of Red Cross ambulances?


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That article is some serious propaganda nonsense.

"But President Joe Biden never planned for a war like this".

GMAFB Dementia Joe is incapable of planning what socks to wear each day and literally has someone who makes those choices for him.


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I think this guy is already trying to lay down cover for Biden

OUTSIDE THE BOX
​As momentous as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is, the most strategically important event in recent weeks was the global economic war between Russia and the U.S. and its allies. Russia, however, has been preparing to confront the West and challenge the Western socio-economic model for a long time.

Russia’s strategic interests in Ukraine are well-known. The geography and history of Russia compel its leaders to create and preserve a buffer between Moscow and the major powers in Western Europe, and to ensure access to the Black Sea. Ukraine is crucial to both goals. But beyond Ukraine, the Kremlin perceives the eastward expansion of Western influence, including into Russia, to be a modern invasion by stealth that threatens the Russian regime.

It is not Western organizations such as NATO and the European Union that challenge the Kremlin, but the socio-economic model that enabled the West to win the Cold War and that enticed Eastern Europeans to want to join the West. When he became president of Russia in 2000, in the wake of the Soviet Union’s collapse and the economic crisis of the 1990s, Vladimir Putin inherited a broken country. Many Russians contemplated joining the European Union, hoping that alignment with the West would bring a better life.

The priority for the Russian establishment was to stabilize and rebuild the country. Putin just wanted to survive politically. Following the example of past successful Russian leaders, he centralized power. Knowing he needed stability and growth to slow the rate of emigration and address Russia’s poor demographics, Putin sought to make Europe economically dependent on Moscow. Looking back at history and the current power balance, he identified Germany as the lynchpin of his strategy of dependence.

‘Russian ties to Germany were key to establishing ties to the European Union more broadly, but this was only the beginning of Russia’s strategy in Europe.’
Russian ties to Germany were key to establishing ties to the European Union more broadly, but this was only the beginning of Russia’s strategy in Europe. Russia opened up its economy to Western investment, established links throughout the Continent and tried to understand the inner workings of EU bureaucracy. It established close business ties with Italy, France and later Hungary, and built a political network that would help expand its influence in Europe. For Moscow, learning about European vulnerabilities was just as important as building up its economy and growing Russia into a stable economic power.

The Kremlin also campaigned to join the World Trade Organization to establish deeper relationships with the world’s biggest economic players. In the process, it benefited from foreign investments in Russia and learned how the global economy works, building partnerships with not just Western economies but also other economic powers. The only problem was that China, its major ally against the West, was not seeing the accelerated growth it hoped for and was still very much dependent on the U.S. market, giving Beijing limited ability to counter U.S. interests in the world and forcing Russia to keep its focus on Europe.

Average Russians saw improvements in their standard of living under Putin. In major Russian cities, life was similar to that in the West. However, when it became a major player in the energy market, Russia also increased its exposure to global economic cycles. The European economic crisis of the 2010s sent shivers through Moscow. Russia’s economy remained fragile overall, and the gap between urban and rural areas remained dangerously high, potentially threatening Putin’s control.

At the same time, the West offered an attractive model to rival Russia’s. It wasn’t so much the growing Western influence in Russia’s buffer zone that bothered the Kremlin, but the fact that ordinary Russians might look at Eastern Europe and see a better model for political organization and economic growth.

Then the pandemic hit. The Russian president apparently feared that the economic insecurity wrought by COVID-19 could threaten his country’s economic security and stability. As the worst socio-economic effects of the pandemic faded, action against the West became urgent. From the Kremlin’s point of view, this was a unique moment. The U.S. has been trying to reduce its presence in Europe and instead focus on the Indo-Pacific and domestic problems. In other words, from the Kremlin’s point of view, the trans-Atlantic alliance and the European Union appear weak. Most important, Russia’s leaders believe they have gained sufficient knowledge of the way the West works and can fight it effectively.

Preparing for war
Russia has been preparing to confront the West since at least the early 2000s. Besides stockpiling foreign reserves, Moscow constructed trade blocs and deepened relations with projects like the Eurasian Economic Union. In Europe, it enticed Germany to become dependent on Russian natural gas, which as is clear today made it extremely difficult for Europe to cut off Russian energy imports. Shifting from gas would require Europe to build new infrastructure — a costly, time-consuming process.

The close German-Russian partnership also benefited the Kremlin’s Europe strategy in other ways. To give a practical example, the EU had plans to make the Danube River fully navigable through the establishment of additional canals, increasing Central Europe’s connection with the Black Sea. This would have given Europe more leverage against Russia at the moment, when the war in Ukraine has forced the rerouting of commercial flows from the Black Sea to much more expensive land routes. Instead, positive relations with Moscow made the project seem unnecessary, and it faded away.

‘It is no coincidence that after 2012, the first full year that Nord Stream 1 was operational, Europe became much more reluctant to adopt policies that could be seen as anti-Russian.’
It is no coincidence that after 2012, the first full year that Nord Stream 1 was operational, Europe became much more reluctant to adopt policies that could be seen as anti-Russian. There was simply no interest in Germany to carry them out. It is also no coincidence that relations between the U.S. and Germany have cooled over that time. The U.S. needed Germany to lead Europe, or at least maintain neutrality, to prevent Russia from expanding its influence in Europe as the U.S. drew back. The fact that Russia joined the World Trade Organization in 2012 gave it even more leverage in the world economy.

Ties with top EU politicians
It is also worth noting that the Kremlin used personal relationships to shore up its influence. Former German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder was tapped to lead Nord Stream 1. Nord Stream AG also hired former Finnish Prime Minister Paavo Lipponen as a consultant to speed up the permit process in Finland. Former Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi served on the board of Delimobil, a Russian car-sharing service. Former Finnish Prime Minister Esko Aho was on the board of Russia’s largest bank, Sberbank. Former Austrian Chancellor Christian Kern resigned from the board of Russia’s state-owned railway company in the early days of the war in Ukraine, while another ex-chancellor, Wolfgang Schussel, remained on the board of Russia’s Lukoil.

This is just a short list of top politicians, all of whom had at least some influence over their country’s foreign policy discussions. They have certainly been useful to Russian economic growth and the advance of Russia’s economic strategy in Europe.

Working closely with Europeans for the past two decades has enabled Russia to learn what is important for the stability of their countries. It has also helped the Kremlin better understand their political agendas and support causes that work to its advantage. For example, Russia enthusiastically supported many green policies, like Germany’s decision to give up nuclear power — which translated into greater reliance on Russian gas. And Russia has openly supported populist parties throughout Europe and effectively used information warfare, all in an attempt to destabilize and ultimately divide Europe.

Globally, Russia has maintained close relations with traditional enemies and competitors of the West. Joining the WTO gave it a stronger position on the global stage, which is used to advance the influence and interests of emerging global players, including the BRICS countries, which also include Brazil, India, China and South Africa. Though the results were modest, Russia promoted the group as an alternative to the West and continued to focus on building ties to China and India, establishing links that it hoped would withstand in a potential confrontation with the West, which we’re seeing play out today.

To counter the current sanctions, it has looked to China for help. The Eurasian Economic Union gives it proxies for continuing to do business with the world. At the same time, Russia’s presence in the Middle East and parts of Africa helps it keep the price of oil high — high enough that it can keep paying its bills. Influence in the Middle East and the Sahel, two highly unstable but resource-rich areas, also gives Russia more leverage over the world economy.

‘Russian strategy certainly has its weaknesses, but Russia has options in countering the West.’
In building its network, Russia has tried to focus on economics and enhancing weaknesses in the global network. It expanded its influence abroad, making sure the dependencies it was encouraging were strong enough to give it leverage but lose enough to allow its withdrawal when necessary. Russian strategy certainly has its weaknesses, but Russia has options in countering the West during the current global economic war. Supporting EU fragmentation through its economic ties in Europe and using the knowledge of European politics that it’s gained over the years are likely the most important elements of its strategy. The moment European citizens feel the repercussion of Western sanctions is when the bloc will become more fragile, which will allow Russia to exploit the EU’s weaknesses.

The world is witnessing its first economic world war of the modern era. The rules are undefined, and the global economy is complex, meaning collateral damage is unavoidable and frequently unpredictable. Slowly, we are becoming aware of the repercussions the sanctions on Russia are having on the global economy. Less clear are the instruments that Russia can employ against the West. How this will change the world is a mystery. All we can do is look back at what Russia has prepared for and guess what could come next. This is only the beginning.​​


Antonia Colibasanu is chief operating officer of Geopolitical Futures.

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"Arsenal of Democracy?" YGBSM, FJB left that in Afghanistan.


Imagine a corporate oligarchy so effective, so advanced and fine tuned that its citizens still call it a democracy.



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As long as we're getting plenty of dead Russians in exchange

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Originally Posted by moosemike
As long as we're getting plenty of dead Russians in exchange

The best Russians are dead Russians.

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Originally Posted by MarkWV
Originally Posted by moosemike
As long as we're getting plenty of dead Russians in exchange

The best Russians are dead Russians.


Liking the Koolaid? What flavor?


Imagine a corporate oligarchy so effective, so advanced and fine tuned that its citizens still call it a democracy.



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Originally Posted by Borchardt
Originally Posted by MarkWV
Originally Posted by moosemike
As long as we're getting plenty of dead Russians in exchange

The best Russians are dead Russians.


Liking the Koolaid? What flavor?


Vodka flavor…..sometimes the frozen type!

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Originally Posted by Borchardt
Originally Posted by MarkWV
Originally Posted by moosemike
As long as we're getting plenty of dead Russians in exchange

The best Russians are dead Russians.


Liking the Koolaid? What flavor?

You got your side and I got mine. And we ain't on the same team 😉

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Biden, Milley, Walensky, Fauci, Garland, Austin and the whole bunch have proved incapable of planning for anything. These are mental midgets, attracted like a moth to the flame of Biden's People's Central Committee. Pick any major national or international challenge - economics, heathcare, defense, energy, industry. They have failed miserably at every one. Yet, they stil spout "Putin's gas prices" and other such incredible lies and nonsense to deflect and divert blame.


Slaves get what they need. Free men get what they want.

Rehabilitation is way overrated.

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Originally Posted by MarkWV
Originally Posted by moosemike
As long as we're getting plenty of dead Russians in exchange

The best Russians are dead Russians.

Maybe you boys ought to rethink that position? Does it make sense? How does it?


Patriotism (and religion) is the last refuge of a scoundrel.

Jesus: "Take heed that no man deceive you."
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Originally Posted by Hastings
Originally Posted by MarkWV
Originally Posted by moosemike
As long as we're getting plenty of dead Russians in exchange

The best Russians are dead Russians.

Maybe you boys ought to rethink that position? Does it make sense? How does it?

Repeated from another thread for prosperity……..

Love for China…….LOL……best Chinese are the ones frozen next to the Russians….

Why do I hate Russia?

Maybe because they chose to invade a free country. Maybe?

Maybe because they have a Dictator. Maybe?

Maybe, just maybe, those that forget their past are doomed to repeat it. Maybe?

Maybe I can’t forget past transgressions, lies, and who was supporting Cuba which influenced South America. Maybe?

Fuqk China…..and while I’m at it Fuqk North Korea, Iran, Afghanistan, Iraq, Palestine, Turkey, etc….

Fuqk Biden, Harris, Manchin and the whole democratic party. Fuqk wearing mask, 6 foot and the easter bunny!

Last but not least…..Fuqk you clowns who support a murderer of innocent civilians, you’re no better than antifa!

And Yes Fuqk blm and antifa!

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Originally Posted by MarkWV
Originally Posted by Hastings
Originally Posted by MarkWV
Originally Posted by moosemike
As long as we're getting plenty of dead Russians in exchange

The best Russians are dead Russians.

Maybe you boys ought to rethink that position? Does it make sense? How does it?

Repeated from another thread for prosperity……..

Love for China…….LOL……best Chinese are the ones frozen next to the Russians….

Why do I hate Russia?

Maybe because they chose to invade a free country. Maybe?

Maybe because they have a Dictator. Maybe?

Maybe, just maybe, those that forget their past are doomed to repeat it. Maybe?

Maybe I can’t forget past transgressions, lies, and who was supporting Cuba which influenced South America. Maybe?

Fuqk China…..and while I’m at it Fuqk North Korea, Iran, Afghanistan, Iraq, Palestine, Turkey, etc….

Fuqk Biden, Harris, Manchin and the whole democratic party. Fuqk wearing mask, 6 foot and the easter bunny!

Last but not least…..Fuqk you clowns who support a murderer of innocent civilians, you’re no better than antifa!

And Yes Fuqk blm and antifa!
Is Ukraine an innocent country that did nothing to provoke a Russian attack?


Patriotism (and religion) is the last refuge of a scoundrel.

Jesus: "Take heed that no man deceive you."
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Originally Posted by Hastings
Originally Posted by MarkWV
Originally Posted by Hastings
Originally Posted by MarkWV
Originally Posted by moosemike
As long as we're getting plenty of dead Russians in exchange

The best Russians are dead Russians.

Maybe you boys ought to rethink that position? Does it make sense? How does it?

Repeated from another thread for prosperity……..

Love for China…….LOL……best Chinese are the ones frozen next to the Russians….

Why do I hate Russia?

Maybe because they chose to invade a free country. Maybe?

Maybe because they have a Dictator. Maybe?

Maybe, just maybe, those that forget their past are doomed to repeat it. Maybe?

Maybe I can’t forget past transgressions, lies, and who was supporting Cuba which influenced South America. Maybe?

Fuqk China…..and while I’m at it Fuqk North Korea, Iran, Afghanistan, Iraq, Palestine, Turkey, etc….

Fuqk Biden, Harris, Manchin and the whole democratic party. Fuqk wearing mask, 6 foot and the easter bunny!

Last but not least…..Fuqk you clowns who support a murderer of innocent civilians, you’re no better than antifa!

And Yes Fuqk blm and antifa!
Is Ukraine an innocent country that did nothing to provoke a Russian attack?

What happened in 2014?

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Good thing there ain't an IQ test to get on here.


Imagine a corporate oligarchy so effective, so advanced and fine tuned that its citizens still call it a democracy.



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Only thing that has depleted the "Arsenal of Democracy" has been our inept leadership in Congress and the Presidency over the last 30+ years. The focus on maintaining bureaucracies, instead of maintaining sufficient stockpiles....

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Originally Posted by Borchardt
Good thing there ain't an IQ test to get on here.

It’s called Freedom…..Ukraine should have it.

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Originally Posted by MarkWV
Originally Posted by Borchardt
Good thing there ain't an IQ test to get on here.

It’s called Freedom…..Ukraine should have it.


And the American government will provide it?

lol,...

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Originally Posted by Bristoe
Originally Posted by MarkWV
Originally Posted by Borchardt
Good thing there ain't an IQ test to get on here.

It’s called Freedom…..Ukraine should have it.


And the American government will provide it?

lol,...

Hopefully the Ukrainian people will provide it. Those of you condemning it can go to hell!

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