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Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 95,725 Likes: 2
Campfire Oracle
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Campfire Oracle
Joined: Jan 2016
Posts: 95,725 Likes: 2 |
It’ll rise at some point. I’ll look at my account at the end of the year. I’m sure I’ll pink away a tear, but whatever. It’s not real for another 25 years. The time it really Matters the most is when you need to sell. All the Patriots need to sell, Before the Ds drive it to Hell. What's going to happen when Durham and Trump start rounding up the heads of all the Bolshevik Neonazi run majors for collusion and treason?
Ecc 10:2
The heart of the wise inclines to the right, but that of a fool to the left.
A Nation which leaves God behind is soon left behind.
"The Lord never asked anyone to be a tax collector, lowyer, or Redskins fan".
I Dindo Nuffin
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Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 7,712 Likes: 7
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 7,712 Likes: 7 |
Jim Cramer has a ton of really good stocks to pick up the past few months (((Cramer))) should be in prison, not handing out investment advice on CNN. But CNN is crooked, so it goes.
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Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 7,712 Likes: 7
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Oct 2010
Posts: 7,712 Likes: 7 |
What's going to happen when Durham and Trump start rounding up the heads of all the Bolshevik Neonazi run majors for collusion and treason? What?
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Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 50,169 Likes: 1
Campfire Kahuna
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Campfire Kahuna
Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 50,169 Likes: 1 |
They'll be up...they always are. Then they'll crash at the end of the week...they always do. How much is always the question.
The only thing worse than a liberal is a liberal that thinks they're a conservative.
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Joined: Jan 2012
Posts: 3,150
Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: Jan 2012
Posts: 3,150 |
Jim Cramer has a ton of really good stocks to pick up the past few months (((Cramer))) should be in prison, not handing out investment advice on CNN. But CNN is crooked, so it goes. Spot on. Bought and paid for.
Yup.
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Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 24,265 Likes: 10
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 24,265 Likes: 10 |
Mirage, Toodogs and ribka, Tuesday futures are down. Im shocked I thought we were in full blown recovery lol.
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Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 8,312
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 8,312 |
I think this is a bull trap, but a short squeeze could pop the market 5%-10% . Any pop is going to be short lived, we have a long way to go before it bottoms unless the fed steps in. I don't think the fed changes anything until inflation gets below 4%-5% which will take a while.
The only way stop inflation is recession, and that's the ugly truth the feds don't want to come out and address directly.
"Life is tough, even tougher if your stupid"
John Wayne
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Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 21,807 Likes: 8
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 21,807 Likes: 8 |
This feels much more like the Dot.com boom-bust than the Carter malaise. The key aspect of the Carter malaise was the stagnation of US innovation, not in a small part due to the failure of the “business conglomerate” model. American business we’re getting their asses handed to them by lots of innovative, foreign competitors. Toyota, Sony, Panasonic, etc. businesses we’re headed to Mexico, Taiwan and Japan and jobs were going overseas.
Today, we’re in the middle of a flight from China. Yes, there’s pain coming here, but re-shoring will keep pressure on companies to staff these functions in the US, and that will keep the unemployment down, like in 2,000.
Like in the dot.com bust, there was the usual “irrational exuberance” followed by a market crash. The crash doesn’t make much difference, economically. The wild card is inventories, which are much higher than they need to be because inventories stocked up, “just in case”. The fact that a lot of the manufacturing of that inventory takes place overseas will probably ameliorate that inventory aspect for a significant part Dutch... you have delivered much soundness to this forum. If we disagree on things it is only tangential... rarely core. inventories... I would like to here more. I have a very different opinion. Thanks
If you are not actively engaging EVERY enemy you encounter... you are allowing another to fight for you... and that is cowardice... plain and simple.
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Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 24,265 Likes: 10
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Mar 2010
Posts: 24,265 Likes: 10 |
I think this is a bull trap, but a short squeeze could pop the market 5%-10% . Any pop is going to be short lived, we have a long way to go before it bottoms unless the fed steps in. I don't think the fed changes anything until inflation gets below 4%-5% which will take a while.
The only way stop inflation is recession, and that's the ugly truth the feds don't want to come out and address directly. dead cat bounce as usual. You can sell shorts and make good money if you know what you're doing. For the average investor it will drop at least another 25 per cent. Probably more. And it will take years to recover. Americans still don't get it
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Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 21,807 Likes: 8
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 21,807 Likes: 8 |
...unless the fed steps in.
The only way stop inflation is recession, and that's the ugly truth the feds don't want to come out and address directly. Please help me understand that opinion. I don't see the Fed as having even a book of matches left in their kit bag. If a recession (or worse) happens/IS OCCURRING, by what means can the Fed or .GOV forestall or reverse it. NOT being a smart ass here. I really am seeking an answer... i.e. HOW can they fix this implosion? By what means?
If you are not actively engaging EVERY enemy you encounter... you are allowing another to fight for you... and that is cowardice... plain and simple.
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Joined: Feb 2010
Posts: 3,842
Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: Feb 2010
Posts: 3,842 |
If a recession (or worse) happens/IS OCCURRING, by what means can the Fed or .GOV forestall or reverse it.
NOT being a smart ass here.
I really am seeking an answer... i.e. HOW can they fix this implosion? By what means? ![[Linked Image from c.tenor.com]](https://c.tenor.com/aWcyWL5BsY0AAAAd/money-printer-go-brr-jerome-powell.gif)
Quando omni flunkus moritati
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Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 8,312
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 8,312 |
...unless the fed steps in.
The only way stop inflation is recession, and that's the ugly truth the feds don't want to come out and address directly. Please help me understand that opinion. I don't see the Fed as having even a book of matches left in their kit bag. If a recession (or worse) happens/IS OCCURRING, by what means can the Fed or .GOV forestall or reverse it. NOT being a smart ass here. I really am seeking an answer... i.e. HOW can they fix this implosion? By what means? By keeping rates low and buying assets the fed can keep the party going forever, but the side effect is inflation. At some point inflation becomes more painful than a market crash. If you find it , Susan Pomboy did some research on the current market excess and she has it at 24 trillion. 2007 excess was pegged at 15 trillion. We have some pain ahead for the next few years. The fed has lots of tools for both injecting and removing capital from the system even though they claim they don’t. Repo markets, asset purchases, rates, etc. It’s easy to manipulate a market you control the money flow in.
"Life is tough, even tougher if your stupid"
John Wayne
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Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 21,807 Likes: 8
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 21,807 Likes: 8 |
Free Money... Cool. But would that not devalue the money that was rightfully earned? "Inflation" is a word I have heard bandied about when free money is freely and forthwith cascaded.
If you are not actively engaging EVERY enemy you encounter... you are allowing another to fight for you... and that is cowardice... plain and simple.
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Joined: Feb 2010
Posts: 3,842
Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: Feb 2010
Posts: 3,842 |
Free Money... Cool.
But would that not devalue the money that was rightfully earned?
"Inflation" is a word I have heard bandied about when free money is freely and forthwith cascaded. Inflation is nothing more than government sanctioned theft and they will steal until there is nothing left.
Quando omni flunkus moritati
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Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 21,807 Likes: 8
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 21,807 Likes: 8 |
By keeping rates low and buying assets the fed can keep the party going forever, but the side effect is inflation. So if the Fed keeps the rate low I can buy a house at 1% over 30 years (as an example). If I keep that house no one will have a chance to buy it for 30+ year. This would make houses a total WIN... People would really want some of this action. Building materials would reach the stratosphere (that would be inflation I presume). House prices would reach millions... labor, equipment and materials would also reach the stratosphere... But rates would be low... ---------------------------------------- The inverse... The Fed sets rates at 50% over 30 years (as an example). No one can afford a house. This would make houses a total No GO... People would really want NONE of this action. Building materials would collapse and manufactures fail. House prices would fall below the cost to build. But inflation would be low... ---------------------------------------- Final inquiry... what assets can the Fed buy? Thanks
If you are not actively engaging EVERY enemy you encounter... you are allowing another to fight for you... and that is cowardice... plain and simple.
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Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 21,807 Likes: 8
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 21,807 Likes: 8 |
The fed has lots of tools for both injecting and removing capital from the system even though they claim they don’t. Repo markets... Please help me understand your perspective on the "Repo Market" Again... not being a smartass. It is a real question.
If you are not actively engaging EVERY enemy you encounter... you are allowing another to fight for you... and that is cowardice... plain and simple.
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Joined: Oct 2021
Posts: 10,817 Likes: 2
Campfire Outfitter
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OP
Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Oct 2021
Posts: 10,817 Likes: 2 |
First, government Bond rates need to stabilize such that folks can know and be confident in what money cost.
We’re not there yet as the Treasury yields are bouncing around in the short term and that’s unstable.
We won’t be at the bottom until the Treasury yields stabilize, then the picture clears somewhat.
Our economy growth rate has been at 5%+. The FED wants to tame that rate down to a more sustainable 3-3.5% and is doing so via the rate bumps upward. Latest numbers show growth to come in at the 4% range + or -.
We all know that more rate increases are coming and that should already be factored in the equation.
The FOMC should have some very relevant data that is to be announced this Friday comparing PCE to inflation.
I much appreciate the input, viewpoints and discussion you guys are doing.
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Joined: Aug 2003
Posts: 39,139 Likes: 24
Campfire 'Bwana
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Campfire 'Bwana
Joined: Aug 2003
Posts: 39,139 Likes: 24 |
You likely can make some good money doing the Inverse of Jim Cramer these days.
What will be interesting is when the Fed starts QT and then yo-yos back to QE when that ripple gets too much etc.
I don't know that they can stop inflation without recession - can someone tell me a time we did?
Me
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Joined: Oct 2021
Posts: 10,817 Likes: 2
Campfire Outfitter
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OP
Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Oct 2021
Posts: 10,817 Likes: 2 |
You likely can make some good money doing the Inverse of Jim Cramer these days.
What will be interesting is when the Fed starts QT and then yo-yos back to QE when that ripple gets too much etc.
I don't know that they can stop inflation without recession - can someone tell me a time we did? The FED typically overshoots in both directions that it’s trying to get to and achieve. Not too long ago they were wanting a “healthy 2-2.5% inflation rate “. They caused rates to stay too low for too long and now we have the present situation. Lots of other factors contributed to the inflation that we now have but those were mostly caused by government also. Supposedly there’s a 6 month lag for pertinent data to reveal itself from any single interest rate bumps in either direction but particularly with QT. The public wants it to happen right now with each FED action but we know it never has worked that way We may recall how long Japan went with negative interest rates causing people to pay their government to keep their money for them. We went a bit negative too for a while trying to stimulate things. Jmo
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Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 21,807 Likes: 8
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Feb 2013
Posts: 21,807 Likes: 8 |
First, government Bond rates need to stabilize such that folks can know and be confident in what money cost. In your opinion... what would be "Bond Rate" set by the Fed that would instill faith? If the Fed set a Bond Rate at 20% (absurd number)... would you buy in? Would I? Hell no... The Monopoly money that would have to be infused into the system for a 20% Bond Rate would make Inflation far surpass that number... At least that is how I see it with my simple brain. That is why I say .GOV and the Fed have no tools in their kit bag to fix this chit. I really really want someone to CORRECT MY LOGIC/UNDERSTANDING. Seriously... please help me understand how .GOV can fix this.
If you are not actively engaging EVERY enemy you encounter... you are allowing another to fight for you... and that is cowardice... plain and simple.
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