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Originally Posted by Houston_2
Today ain't looking too bad so far.
This market reminds me of a chain saw running out of gas. It will sputter and every now and it will rev up on the lean mixture but it is out of gas. And now we don't have extra gas to pour into it.


Patriotism (and religion) is the last refuge of a scoundrel.

Jesus: "Take heed that no man deceive you."

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Originally Posted by Hastings
Originally Posted by Houston_2
Today ain't looking too bad so far.
This market reminds me of a chain saw running out of gas. It will sputter and every now and it will rev up on the lean mixture but it is out of gas. And now we don't have extra gas to pour into it.


Country boy analogy. Good one.

You may be right but some folks are evidently seeing value after the most recent past of their abandoning growth stocks in droves.

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Futures up nicely for Thursday. Yesterday’s FED mtg had no surprises and they were consistent in their message for this summer on rate raising.

Friday’s (tomorrow) FOMC meeting notes and consumer spending data will be the next bridge to cross. If good then the value stocks and markets should benefit. If not good the markets will head back towards the crapper.

Just musings.

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IMHO... the Fed is allowing a slow bleed-out with its' measured increases.

Inflation will NOT STABILIZE at this rate.

Investors will try and catch falling knives...

People without portfolios will suffer the most.

People with portfolios will suffer hard from the backhand of inflation.

This week will be a win/lose/wash... we will see.

Overall there is far more pain to come.

Just my opinion.


If you are not actively engaging EVERY enemy you encounter... you are allowing another to fight for you... and that is cowardice... plain and simple.



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The increase in interest rates will not do anything to inflation, because it's a supply shortage, not excess buying.

The fed knows this.

By raising rates, they are making inflation worse, because it's making production costs rise.

They are powerless and they know it.

Powell will stop raising sooner rather than later, as there is an election coming up.

Second, as war heats up in Europe, that capital will look for somewhere to go....US stock market.

That probably will happen in 23.

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Originally Posted by hicountry
The increase in interest rates will not do anything to inflation, because it's a supply shortage, not excess buying.

The fed knows this.

By raising rates, they are making inflation worse, because it's making production costs rise.

They are powerless and they know it.

Powell will stop raising sooner rather than later, as there is an election coming up.

Second, as war heats up in Europe, that capital will look for somewhere to go....US stock market.

That probably will happen in 23.

Agree.

Even with the interest rate hikes, rates remain “relatively low” on a historical basis (or a hysterical basis).

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Originally Posted by hicountry
Second, as war heats up in Europe, that capital will look for somewhere to go....US stock market.

The whole world has been buying America (stocks and RE) for a very long time.

America is sucking hind tit now, but the rest of the world is even lower than that last tit.

Joey is fugging the whole world.

Soon enough... an IT dude in Mumbai will be making the same salary as a GS-15 IT dude in Washington DC...

Or said differently...

Soon enough... an IT dude in Washington DC... will be make the same salary as an IT dude in Mumbai.

--------------------------------------------------

Not entirely accurate... only making a point about the Global utopia that EVERYONE is so dang thrilled about.


If you are not actively engaging EVERY enemy you encounter... you are allowing another to fight for you... and that is cowardice... plain and simple.



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Originally Posted by hicountry
The increase in interest rates will not do anything to inflation, because it's a supply shortage, not excess buying.

The fed knows this.

By raising rates, they are making inflation worse, because it's making production costs rise.

They are powerless and they know it.

Powell will stop raising sooner rather than later, as there is an election coming up.

Second, as war heats up in Europe, that capital will look for somewhere to go....US stock market.

That probably will happen in 23.

Certainly agree that supply disruptions due to Covid are playing a role, but you don't think that all the dollars injected into the economy have anything to do with it?


The biggest problem our country has is not systemic racism, it's systemic stupidity.
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Still, what else are you going to invest in? RE is extremely high, Savings rates are @ 1% or less. I'm still buying. I think in the end America will overcome the current administration and prosper again. If not, then money is really not going to matter. Not day trading, looking several years to a decade into the future......


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Gents

Look closely at the previous bear markets in the early 70s and the first decade of the 2000s.

Each had a number of bear market rallies that ranged from 6% to 12%....before the bottom finally came in.

This is not at all unusual....actually expected.

You have to be very nimble to play those!


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Originally Posted by Tarbe
Gents

Look closely at the previous bear markets in the early 70s and the first decade of the 2000s.

Each had a number of bear market rallies that ranged from 6% to 12%....before the bottom finally came in.

This is not at all unusual....actually expected.

You have to be very nimble to play those!

yep. There's some quick money to be made. I still think at least another 20 per cent permanent correction

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Originally Posted by ribka
Originally Posted by Tarbe
Gents

Look closely at the previous bear markets in the early 70s and the first decade of the 2000s.

Each had a number of bear market rallies that ranged from 6% to 12%....before the bottom finally came in.

This is not at all unusual....actually expected.

You have to be very nimble to play those!

yep. There's some quick money to be made. I still think at least another 20 per cent permanent correction

Nothing is permanent about stocks and bonds markets.

Ribka, keep these guys in-line for a while. I’m midway into a major and total relocation of domiciles.

I’ll be back atcha when I can.

Later.

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later gator


I flipped MOGU for some short term profits today.

looking at more YORKF and SLVDF if drop more


Originally Posted by Houston_2
Originally Posted by ribka
Originally Posted by Tarbe
Gents

Look closely at the previous bear markets in the early 70s and the first decade of the 2000s.

Each had a number of bear market rallies that ranged from 6% to 12%....before the bottom finally came in.

This is not at all unusual....actually expected.

You have to be very nimble to play those!

yep. There's some quick money to be made. I still think at least another 20 per cent permanent correction

Nothing is permanent about stocks and bonds markets.

Ribka, keep these guys in-line for a while. I’m midway into a major and total relocation of domiciles.

I’ll be back atcha when I can.

Later.

Last edited by ribka; 05/26/22.
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Originally Posted by Tarbe
Gents

Look closely at the previous bear markets in the early 70s and the first decade of the 2000s.

Each had a number of bear market rallies that ranged from 6% to 12%....before the bottom finally came in.

This is not at all unusual....actually expected.

You have to be very nimble to play those!

On this site, you can peruse market cycles to your heart's content. Its pretty cool.

https://stockmarketcycles.net/


"Men must be governed by God or they will be ruled by tyrants". --- William Penn

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Thanks.


Originally Posted by RJY66
Originally Posted by Tarbe
Gents

Look closely at the previous bear markets in the early 70s and the first decade of the 2000s.

Each had a number of bear market rallies that ranged from 6% to 12%....before the bottom finally came in.

This is not at all unusual....actually expected.

You have to be very nimble to play those!

On this site, you can peruse market cycles to your heart's content. Its pretty cool.

https://stockmarketcycles.net/

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Friday will be the day to watch. Normal profit taking day. Long weekend I expect a real drop. Hasbeen


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More panic buying today


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And today?

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And today ? The stock market proves you cant time the dumb thing. However, I thing the tech buyers are creating snother dead cat bounce down the road. The high dividend stock are fairly valued while tech and growth should have went down 50% from the top and that would have been another 23%?. As for me, I dumped 2/3 of my British Petroleum and bought some hospital REITS, some other REITS, and some bonds. About 5% went into a closed end fund that pays 9% divies and pays out monthly.


But the fruits of the spirit is love, joy, peace, patience, kindness, goodness,faithfulness, Gentleness and self control. Against such things there is no law. Galations 5: 22&23
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Ribka, Greg has that Mannarino Market Risk Indicator. (DXY = 101.64) * (TNX = 2.743) / 1.61 is the equation he shows. Any idea where the 1.61 comes from?


@jameslavish

If you work 40 hrs/wk: at 5% inflation and after 5 years, you need a 28% pay raise or to work 44 more hours (*one full extra week* per month+) to make up the difference.

This is inflation
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