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Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022

The well-defined eye of Ian emerged off the coast of western Cuba
about an hour ago. Earlier reports from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter
aircraft indicate that Ian strengthened up through landfall, with an
estimated pressure of 947 mb over western Cuba. While the hurricane
has filled somewhat due to the passage over Cuba, Air Force Reserve
and NOAA Hurricane Hunter data show that it has grown in size. The
initial wind speed is set to 100 kt.

Ian is moving northward, or 005/9 kt. Dropsonde data from the NOAA
G-IV aircraft indicate a potent upper-level trough is over the
western Gulf of Mexico. The strength of this trough, the associated
southwesterly flow, and the vertical depth of Ian appear to be the
keys to the forecast. There has been a notable trend toward the
hurricane remaining more intact up through landfall, meaning Ian is
likely to turn to the northeast and not move as slowly as previously
anticipated. However, it should be emphasized that this track
remains very uncertain, with a typical spread in the steering
features leading to big speed and track differences down the line,
not to mention the oblique angle of approach to Florida. The latest
forecast is adjusted to the southeast for this advisory, showing
landfall 6-12 hours faster than before, and we will have to see if
the southern trend continues in the afternoon guidance. The rest of
the forecast after landfall has been adjusted to the northeast as
well, though it is still slower than the consensus guidance at
longer range.

The hurricane should remain in a favorable environment for
restrengthening over the next day or so while it moves over the warm
waters of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and in light-shear
conditions. While the shear should increase by tomorrow, it isn't
expected to be enough to significantly weaken the hurricane before
landfall. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement on this
scenario, and the NHC intensity forecast continues to call for an
extremely dangerous hurricane landfall for southwestern Florida.

The new forecast necessitates a Hurricane Watch for portions of
extreme southwestern Florida, and a Tropical Storm Watch for the
rest of southeastern Florida that wasn't previously under a watch.
Users are reminded to not focus on the exact track as some
additional adjustments to the track are possible. Significant wind,
storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center.


Key Messages:

1. Life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, flash floods
and possible mudslides are expected to continue in portions of
western Cuba today. Devastating wind damage is expected near the
core of Ian.

2. Life-threatening storm surge looks increasingly likely along much
of the Florida west coast where a storm surge warning is in effect,
with the highest risk from Fort Myers to the Tampa Bay region.
Residents in these areas should listen to advice given by local
officials and follow evacuation orders if made for your area.

3. Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area
in southwest and west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning
with tropical storm conditions expected by this evening. Residents
should rush all preparations to completion today.

4. Heavy rainfall will increase across the Florida Keys and south
Florida today, spreading into central and northern Florida tonight
and Wednesday, into the Southeast U.S. by Thursday and Friday,
likely causing flash, urban, and small stream flooding. Considerable
flooding is expected across central Florida into southern Georgia
and coastal South Carolina, with widespread, prolonged moderate to
major river flooding expected across central Florida.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/1500Z 23.0N 83.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 24.4N 83.3W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 26.0N 83.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 27.1N 82.5W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 27.8N 82.1W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
60H 30/0000Z 28.5N 81.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/1200Z 29.5N 81.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 01/1200Z 33.0N 81.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 02/1200Z 35.0N 81.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

Visible:



IR:

This is a good site for real time radar.

FSU Radar

Eye is smaller at 18 Nautical Miles and circular. It was 30 NM before impacting Cuba.

Good news on the surge front for Tampa Bay and Pinellas barrier islands. Appears Venice, Englewood, Port Charlotte, Punta Gorda, and Ft Myers will get the brunt of surge now.

I’m going to follow this up with a perspective from Conservative Treehouse and HappyCamper.org.

I new we could count on you. As always, YOU DA MAN!

Is this the one that was going to be a big nothing?

Is the Eye getting smaller good news or bad news? And why.

Serious question

The wind field expanded a bit

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km).

Surge maps updated in real time:
nhc - noaa surge map

Bad. It means that it is intensifying.

Just some rain.

I get it. "The Clint Eastwood Squint". Ya, very bad.

Thanks.

Yes. I was wrong. I apologize profusely. When the invest was forecasted to become a hurricane - cat 2 was the strength they forecast it at. It has significantly out performed the models.



Generally bad news. Smaller usually means more intense/stronger. Especially when associated with a larger storm - this storm is now very large.

A news article that explains it pretty well:

https://www.baynews9.com/fl/tampa/weather/2020/10/06/the-dreaded-pinhole-eye

Forecast is getting a little better for me but if it slowly drifts right up the mouth of Tampa Bay it will do catastrophic damage with storm surge. It’s a slow moving hurricane so that will destroy a lot more also. Hour upon hour of water and wind battering structures and trees will weaken and destroy what would survive a faster moving hurricane. The track has drifted east enough to put my house on the “good” side of the hurricane. I’m still projected to get 6”-10” of rain and possibly 50mph winds. I’m betting on 30ish mph winds. If you live in the impact area and aren’t in an elevated modern home I’d get the f**k out ! 10’+ of pounding water for hours will kill a lot of people who stay. If I lived anywhere along the projected impact area from two days ago I’d have already buttoned up the house , grabbed documents and irreplaceable items and have left already. Your community isn’t going to be reasonably livable for a long time. A hotel with AC and hot water will be paradise compared to your home and community. Go relax. This is what insurance is for.

Is this the same who brought us - Biden is going to be impeached on Monday?

Starting not to believe so much they say...

South Florida Water Management District multi modal radar, rainfall estimates and real time gauge readings.

www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/current-weather-conditions

How is this storm different? Seems to be a normal hurricane which may happen this time of year.

It is very large and intense.

Another visible image:

It’s usually bad. If you had seen devastation of Andrew you would understand. Andrew’s eye was very small but the eye wall had 220+mph winds. That was determined later by modern analysis of the radar. I can’t remember exactly how wide the eye was but very small. Andrew was better described as a giant tornado than a hurricane. Where the eye went it left only slabs of houses. Concrete block homes were blown away down to the slab. A small eye in a big hurricane is really bad news.

At least it is just a Major Hurricane, just think, what if it had made Light Colonel.

It’s not really different but it’s moving slow and is hitting a lot of vulnerable high value areas. Slow moving , the direction it’s coming from , and the power will combine to be devastating. It will push a huge storm surge right into a huge area of vulnerable homes and businesses. Storm surge is the real killer.