Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 18 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022
The well-defined eye of Ian emerged off the coast of western Cuba about an hour ago. Earlier reports from the NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that Ian strengthened up through landfall, with an estimated pressure of 947 mb over western Cuba. While the hurricane has filled somewhat due to the passage over Cuba, Air Force Reserve and NOAA Hurricane Hunter data show that it has grown in size. The initial wind speed is set to 100 kt.
Ian is moving northward, or 005/9 kt. Dropsonde data from the NOAA G-IV aircraft indicate a potent upper-level trough is over the western Gulf of Mexico. The strength of this trough, the associated southwesterly flow, and the vertical depth of Ian appear to be the keys to the forecast. There has been a notable trend toward the hurricane remaining more intact up through landfall, meaning Ian is likely to turn to the northeast and not move as slowly as previously anticipated. However, it should be emphasized that this track remains very uncertain, with a typical spread in the steering features leading to big speed and track differences down the line, not to mention the oblique angle of approach to Florida. The latest forecast is adjusted to the southeast for this advisory, showing landfall 6-12 hours faster than before, and we will have to see if the southern trend continues in the afternoon guidance. The rest of the forecast after landfall has been adjusted to the northeast as well, though it is still slower than the consensus guidance at longer range.
The hurricane should remain in a favorable environment for restrengthening over the next day or so while it moves over the warm waters of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico and in light-shear conditions. While the shear should increase by tomorrow, it isn't expected to be enough to significantly weaken the hurricane before landfall. Model guidance is in fairly good agreement on this scenario, and the NHC intensity forecast continues to call for an extremely dangerous hurricane landfall for southwestern Florida.
The new forecast necessitates a Hurricane Watch for portions of extreme southwestern Florida, and a Tropical Storm Watch for the rest of southeastern Florida that wasn't previously under a watch. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact track as some additional adjustments to the track are possible. Significant wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center.
Key Messages:
1. Life-threatening storm surge, hurricane-force winds, flash floods and possible mudslides are expected to continue in portions of western Cuba today. Devastating wind damage is expected near the core of Ian.
2. Life-threatening storm surge looks increasingly likely along much of the Florida west coast where a storm surge warning is in effect, with the highest risk from Fort Myers to the Tampa Bay region. Residents in these areas should listen to advice given by local officials and follow evacuation orders if made for your area.
3. Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area in southwest and west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning with tropical storm conditions expected by this evening. Residents should rush all preparations to completion today.
4. Heavy rainfall will increase across the Florida Keys and south Florida today, spreading into central and northern Florida tonight and Wednesday, into the Southeast U.S. by Thursday and Friday, likely causing flash, urban, and small stream flooding. Considerable flooding is expected across central Florida into southern Georgia and coastal South Carolina, with widespread, prolonged moderate to major river flooding expected across central Florida.
Eye is smaller at 18 Nautical Miles and circular. It was 30 NM before impacting Cuba.
Good news on the surge front for Tampa Bay and Pinellas barrier islands. Appears Venice, Englewood, Port Charlotte, Punta Gorda, and Ft Myers will get the brunt of surge now.
Is this the one that was going to be a big nothing?
Yes. I was wrong. I apologize profusely. When the invest was forecasted to become a hurricane - cat 2 was the strength they forecast it at. It has significantly out performed the models.
Originally Posted by SupFoo
Originally Posted by Geno67
Eye is smaller at 18 Nautical Miles and circular. It was 30 NM before impacting Cuba.
Is the Eye getting smaller good news or bad news? And why.
Serious question
Generally bad news. Smaller usually means more intense/stronger. Especially when associated with a larger storm - this storm is now very large.
Forecast is getting a little better for me but if it slowly drifts right up the mouth of Tampa Bay it will do catastrophic damage with storm surge. It’s a slow moving hurricane so that will destroy a lot more also. Hour upon hour of water and wind battering structures and trees will weaken and destroy what would survive a faster moving hurricane. The track has drifted east enough to put my house on the “good” side of the hurricane. I’m still projected to get 6”-10” of rain and possibly 50mph winds. I’m betting on 30ish mph winds. If you live in the impact area and aren’t in an elevated modern home I’d get the f**k out ! 10’+ of pounding water for hours will kill a lot of people who stay. If I lived anywhere along the projected impact area from two days ago I’d have already buttoned up the house , grabbed documents and irreplaceable items and have left already. Your community isn’t going to be reasonably livable for a long time. A hotel with AC and hot water will be paradise compared to your home and community. Go relax. This is what insurance is for.
Eye is smaller at 18 Nautical Miles and circular. It was 30 NM before impacting Cuba.
Is the Eye getting smaller good news or bad news? And why.
Serious question
It’s usually bad. If you had seen devastation of Andrew you would understand. Andrew’s eye was very small but the eye wall had 220+mph winds. That was determined later by modern analysis of the radar. I can’t remember exactly how wide the eye was but very small. Andrew was better described as a giant tornado than a hurricane. Where the eye went it left only slabs of houses. Concrete block homes were blown away down to the slab. A small eye in a big hurricane is really bad news.
How is this storm different? Seems to be a normal hurricane which may happen this time of year.
It’s not really different but it’s moving slow and is hitting a lot of vulnerable high value areas. Slow moving , the direction it’s coming from , and the power will combine to be devastating. It will push a huge storm surge right into a huge area of vulnerable homes and businesses. Storm surge is the real killer.
and there is an obverse side of the evacuate coin. Right now, I-75 and I-4, along with the Florida TP are clogged. Bumper to bumper heavy traffic in heavy rain and wind. There won't be any motels for hundreds of miles with a vacancy, and as always in a storm like this if you go north to escape, the storm just follows you. Power outages can curtail any hope of getting refueled along the way, not to mention huge lines waiting to get a few gallons. When a tropical system spans the entire state, there isn't a good way to escape it. I have always felt that if you were not right on the coast, it's best to just ride it out. In the 70+ years I have lived in FL, I have seen it all, experienced the result of good and bad choices, good and bad luck. I'm still alive though.
Is this the one that was going to be a big nothing?
Yes. I was wrong. I apologize profusely. When the invest was forecasted to become a hurricane - cat 2 was the strength they forecast it at. It has significantly out performed the models.
Originally Posted by SupFoo
Originally Posted by Geno67
Eye is smaller at 18 Nautical Miles and circular. It was 30 NM before impacting Cuba.
Is the Eye getting smaller good news or bad news? And why.
Serious question
Generally bad news. Smaller usually means more intense/stronger. Especially when associated with a larger storm - this storm is now very large.
How is this storm different? Seems to be a normal hurricane which may happen this time of year.
They're all different. Some move fast with high winds and moderate surge (such as this one), some sit out there for weeks and make landfall as a Cat 1 storm, but have a Cat 5 surge. The angle that they arrive makes a difference also.
Probably the most significant thing about this one is that it's threatening a major population area that hasn't had a hurricane in 100 years.
A small eye in a big hurricane is really bad news.
But some bonehead will fly into it anyway, huh.
Yep - both Air Force and NOAA planes fly into it almost non-stop once it's 36 hours out. The 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, a component of the 403rd Wing located at Keesler Air Force Base in Biloxi, MS flies WC-130J aircraft. NOAA has P-3 Orions and Gulfstream IV-SP (G-IV) fast movers.
I was just looking at the radar and I swear it looks to be going much more eastward than the tracks are predicting. I’m from Key West and that’s really bad news for my family that still lives there. If it goes ashore further south and travels more easterly it will save many billions of dollars in damages. Naples to Fort Myers is a relatively thin strip of development and then the Everglades. If it hits there and goes northeast it will hit a much less populated area all the way across Florida.
and there is an obverse side of the evacuate coin. Right now, I-75 and I-4, along with the Florida TP are clogged. Bumper to bumper heavy traffic in heavy rain and wind. There won't be any motels for hundreds of miles with a vacancy, and as always in a storm like this if you go north to escape, the storm just follows you. Power outages can curtail any hope of getting refueled along the way, not to mention huge lines waiting to get a few gallons. When a tropical system spans the entire state, there isn't a good way to escape it. I have always felt that if you were not right on the coast, it's best to just ride it out. In the 70+ years I have lived in FL, I have seen it all, experienced the result of good and bad choices, good and bad luck. I'm still alive though.
I was saying in my post that I’d have left two days ago when you could still get out. The roads out will be jammed and soon to become parking lots.
and there is an obverse side of the evacuate coin. Right now, I-75 and I-4, along with the Florida TP are clogged. Bumper to bumper heavy traffic in heavy rain and wind. There won't be any motels for hundreds of miles with a vacancy, and as always in a storm like this if you go north to escape, the storm just follows you. Power outages can curtail any hope of getting refueled along the way, not to mention huge lines waiting to get a few gallons. When a tropical system spans the entire state, there isn't a good way to escape it. I have always felt that if you were not right on the coast, it's best to just ride it out. In the 70+ years I have lived in FL, I have seen it all, experienced the result of good and bad choices, good and bad luck. I'm still alive though.
Have been at our Tenn place several times when storms hit anywhere between E. Texas-Florida, plenty of those 'evacuees' head up there and fill the overnight/vacation rentals.
I was just looking at the radar and I swear it looks to be going much more eastward than the tracks are predicting. I’m from Key West and that’s really bad news for my family that still lives there. If it goes ashore further south and travels more easterly it will save many billions of dollars in damages. Naples to Fort Myers is a relatively thin strip of development and then the Everglades. If it hits there and goes northeast it will hit a much less populated area all the way across Florida.
I would guess more eastward and south. Naples, Fort Myers are most likely in the crosshairs at this time.
It is now outperforming the models again and rapidly intensifying (with nothing in front of it to cause weakening). I would not be surprised if it becomes a C5 but I kind of doubt it will make it as it has to do so before landfall. I don't see much weakening before landfall either unfortunately. A serious cat 4 is most likely going to happen before midnight.
I was just looking at the radar and I swear it looks to be going much more eastward than the tracks are predicting. I’m from Key West and that’s really bad news for my family that still lives there. If it goes ashore further south and travels more easterly it will save many billions of dollars in damages. Naples to Fort Myers is a relatively thin strip of development and then the Everglades. If it hits there and goes northeast it will hit a much less populated area all the way across Florida.
I would guess more eastward and south. Naples, Fort Myers are most likely in the crosshairs at this time.
It is now outperforming the models again and rapidly intensifying (with nothing in front of it to cause weakening). I would not be surprised if it becomes a C5 but I kind of doubt it will make it as it has to do so before landfall. I don't see much weakening before landfall either unfortunately. A serious cat 4 is most likely going to happen before midnight.
If it goes ashore Naples to Fort Myers as a high cat 4 as big as it is it will push an incredible storm surge across a wide area and basically scub those communities off the map. If you know the area they’re screwed ! Shallow approach to pile the water up on and thousands of miles of waterways pointed just about perfect to channel the surge inland. It will be horrible ! You know there will be thousands of Yankees who think they’re a long way from water and have nothing to worry about who’s house will be completely submerged.
Latest dropsonde in the eye of Ian finds 958mb - a 5mb drop in a little over an hour.
Yes, unfortunately, the western side of south Florida is about to have a very bad day. Probably starting about an hour before daylight tomorrow morning.
On the bright side much of the area is newer construction. It’s all built to post Andrew codes. Anyplace that doesn’t actually flood should hold up well. The flood part is a mofo ! There will be a lot of flooding.
Wife has a very close cousin living in port Charlotte. Her husband is up here in Michigan taking care of business. She's gonna ride it out. She's definitely gonna have an interesting couple of days.
Looks like my 76 year old Mother and Step Father's home in Port Charlotte is going to get hit (Again). Luckily they got all the hurricane shutters locked in and left yesterday. I hope they have something to return to.
No, it's not a large system. But that doesn't matter. It's gonna be plenty "huge" for the people who get that eastern eyewall. Hopefully those poor souls won't be overwhelmed by a populated area that loses electricity and Whole Foods for a few days.
Hurricane Ian Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 500 PM EDT Tue Sep 27 2022
The pressure on the last Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft fix fell to about 952 mb, indicating that Ian is restrengthening over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. The eye of Ian remains well-defined on visible imagery, although radar data from Key West suggest that an eyewall replacement could be in the initial stages. The initial wind speed is set to 105 kt, matching a blend of earlier SFMR and flight-level wind data. The plane data also showed that the area of hurricane-force winds is growing on the east side of the cyclone.
Ian is moving east-of-due-north, or 010/9-kt, with occasional wobbles to the north-northeast. A track toward the north-northeast is expected for the next couple of days while it moves between a ridge over the Bahamas and a trough over the western Gulf of Mexico. There has been some model convergence this afternoon showing Ian remaining stronger and vertically deeper through landfall. This solution results in a faster track, again adjusted to the southeast, and the new forecast is moved in that direction. This new NHC track is close to the corrected model consensus and between the quicker ECMWF and slower GFS models. It should be emphasized that this track remains uncertain, with a typical spread in the steering features leading to big speed and track differences down the line, not to mention the oblique angle of approach to Florida. In a few days, more of the guidance is showing Ian interacting with a shortwave trough over the southeastern United States, causing the system to move back over the northwestern Atlantic in the longer range, before turning northwestward back over land. The day 3-5 track forecast is also shifted eastward, although significant re-strengthening is not expected at long range.
The outflow pattern of the hurricane is beginning to be impinged upon in the southwestern quadrant, a sign that upper-level southwesterly flow is starting to affect the outer circulation. While the shear should increase up through landfall, it is just too close-to-call whether it starts to weaken Ian or not, or whether the larger system is able to resist the shear. Additionally, an eyewall replacement cycle could be in its initial phases, although predicting these structural changes is extremely difficult. The new forecast is near the last one, a little higher than the consensus. I should note that whether Ian comes ashore as category 4 hurricane or a large category 3 after an eyewall cycle, avoiding a large and destructive hurricane for Florida seems very unlikely, and residents should heed the advice of local emergency management officials.
The new forecast necessitates a Hurricane Warning for portions of extreme southwestern Florida, and a Tropical Storm Warning for the rest of southeastern Florida that wasn't previously under a warning. Users are reminded to not focus on the exact track as some additional adjustments to the track are possible. Significant wind, storm surge, and rainfall hazards will extend far from the center.
Key Messages:
1. Life-threatening storm surge is increasingly likely along the Florida west coast where a storm surge warning is in effect, with the highest risk from Naples to the Sarasota region. Residents in these areas should listen to advice given by local officials and follow any evacuation orders for your area.
2. Hurricane-force winds are expected in the hurricane warning area in southwest and west-central Florida beginning Wednesday morning with tropical storm conditions expected overnight. Devastating wind damage is expected near the core of Ian. Residents should rush all preparations to completion.
3. Heavy rainfall will affect most of the Florida Peninsula for the next several days, spreading to the rest of the Southeast U.S. by Thursday and Friday, likely causing flash, urban, and small stream flooding. Considerable flooding is expected with widespread, prolonged moderate to major river flooding expected across central Florida.
No, it's not a large system. But that doesn't matter. It's gonna be plenty "huge" for the people who get that eastern eyewall. Hopefully those poor souls won't be overwhelmed by a populated area that loses electricity and Whole Foods for a few days.
Hurricane Ian stretches from Cuba to Washington DC and is twice as wide as Florida. It is a truly massive storm.
I don't miss that hurricane BS at all. After hurricane Francis and then 2 weeks later Jeane in 04 and then Wilma in 05. My wife finally had enough of living on the water in Florida and moved to the woods.
The eyewall is usually inundated with tornados...to numerous and obscured to count. Let's just hope that twenty mile stretch hits nowhere. But the fact is, it will hit someone, even if they live "nowhere". And the media will not GAF if it's not Democrats.
But they will survive. The sound of chainsaws and generators will be around for a long time there. And there will be no help, except from their friends, family and a few benevolent organizations.
Meanwhile, millions, of tax dollars will be given to the usual suspects in the usual places.
Latest satellite and radar looks like it’s making a jog to the right earlier than forecasted. Maybe it’s just a normal wobble these hurricanes exhibit, or the trough to the west is stronger than forecasted, but if I were in S Florida I’d be watching closely.
It looks to me like the eye is going straight up Charlotte Harbor and slamming Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda. The storm surge will funnel up the inlet and drown the cities. Pry Ian doesn’t reorganize before it starts to drag against the land. If it doesn’t reorganize it will stay a cat 3 but if it reorganizes and strengthens again it will be much worse. The difference between a 105mph hurricane and a 130mph hurricane is a bunch of damage.
Latest satellite and radar looks like it’s making a jog to the right earlier than forecasted. Maybe it’s just a normal wobble these hurricanes exhibit, or the trough to the west is stronger than forecasted, but if I were in S Florida I’d be watching closely.
I see the same thing but I think it’s a temporary wobble from the eye wall coming apart and replacing itself.
It looks to me like the eye is going straight up Charlotte Harbor and slamming Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda. The storm surge will funnel up the inlet and drown the cities. Pry Ian doesn’t reorganize before it starts to drag against the land. If it doesn’t reorganize it will stay a cat 3 but if it reorganizes and strengthens again it will be much worse. The difference between a 105mph hurricane and a 130mph hurricane is a bunch of damage.
HH planes are in it now. Radar is indicating 120. We'll see if the aircraft verify that. Sadly, there's a 4500 CAPE ridge to the SE of Ian that's providing infeed and it (the very high CAPE ridge) is also expanding significantly.
Pretty sure it's going to continue to go farther right than forecast at least for the time being. Current heading is 10 degrees.
The entire country of Cuba is without power. Complete grid failure. Hurricane Ian has collapsed Cuba's power grid, knocking out power to the island's 11 million people. https://t.co/CdMKTmfwvL -- The Associated Press (@AP) September 28, 2022
South FL is inundated with tornadoes. It's just one after another. Damn it.
Radar indicating >130 mph winds at eye. HH aircraft is in the storm, still waiting for data broadcast. The last broadcast found 126+ at the aircraft altitude. This would probably mean 115 or so at the surface.
It looks to me like the eye is going straight up Charlotte Harbor and slamming Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda. The storm surge will funnel up the inlet and drown the cities. Pry Ian doesn’t reorganize before it starts to drag against the land. If it doesn’t reorganize it will stay a cat 3 but if it reorganizes and strengthens again it will be much worse. The difference between a 105mph hurricane and a 130mph hurricane is a bunch of damage.
HH planes are in it now. Radar is indicating 120. We'll see if the aircraft verify that. Sadly, there's a 4500 CAPE ridge to the SE of Ian that's providing infeed and it (the very high CAPE ridge) is also expanding significantly.
Pretty sure it's going to continue to go farther right than forecast at least for the time being. Current heading is 10 degrees.
I just looked at the infrared satellite imagery and it looks like it has really slowed down and drifted east more. Slower it goes over that hot water the stronger it’s going to be. It’s a big hot monster right now and there’s nothing to weaken it currently. The eye has basically disappeared so it should start to build its new eye wall and get stronger quickly. I wonder how full Okeechobee is ?
Ian’s eyewall replacement is complete & there’s a new burst of inner core lightning in the upshear (SW) quadrant of the eyewall, which may signal of an ongoing period of re-intensification. The absence of a hole on the imagery is just high level cloud cover. Regardless, hurricane-force winds should move onshore SW FL within several hours.
In flight data shows a rise of a few millibars in pressure. Still waiting for dropsonde data to confirm.
It looks to me like the eye is going straight up Charlotte Harbor and slamming Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda. The storm surge will funnel up the inlet and drown the cities. Pry Ian doesn’t reorganize before it starts to drag against the land. If it doesn’t reorganize it will stay a cat 3 but if it reorganizes and strengthens again it will be much worse. The difference between a 105mph hurricane and a 130mph hurricane is a bunch of damage.
HH planes are in it now. Radar is indicating 120. We'll see if the aircraft verify that. Sadly, there's a 4500 CAPE ridge to the SE of Ian that's providing infeed and it (the very high CAPE ridge) is also expanding significantly.
Pretty sure it's going to continue to go farther right than forecast at least for the time being. Current heading is 10 degrees.
I just looked at the infrared satellite imagery and it looks like it has really slowed down and drifted east more. Slower it goes over that hot water the stronger it’s going to be. It’s a big hot monster right now and there’s nothing to weaken it currently. The eye has basically disappeared so it should start to build its new eye wall and get stronger quickly. I wonder how full Okeechobee is ?
If you look at the water vapor loops, it appears the strong trough to the west is beginning to shear the outflow in the SW quadrant. Maybe this tough will win out an weaken Ian? Time will tell.
120 mph sustained and pressure rose to 952mb confirmed by dropsonde. Eyewall replacement was faster than any I've seen. Current eyewall has constricted to previous size. Don't see that very often.
"House is experiencing minor flooding in Key West... still about 2 more hours to high tide with the "back side" and surge side yet to impact us, hopefully it will stay minor but I am not optimistic We are staying at a hotel on the 2nd floor because we were concerned about the flood risk. I figure many must be experiencing significant flooding as our elevation is about average on the island.
It looks to me like the eye is going straight up Charlotte Harbor and slamming Port Charlotte and Punta Gorda. The storm surge will funnel up the inlet and drown the cities. Pry Ian doesn’t reorganize before it starts to drag against the land. If it doesn’t reorganize it will stay a cat 3 but if it reorganizes and strengthens again it will be much worse. The difference between a 105mph hurricane and a 130mph hurricane is a bunch of damage.
This 53rdWRS pass through Ian shows the new core already has 115-kt (132 mph) flight level winds and a huge area of hurricane-force winds to the northeast, which will prolong and expand impacts.
Very sad to say but again, this storm has outperformed all model predictions.
155 mph sustained winds (184 mph gusts) and 935 mb pressure. If it doesn't make it to a cat 5, I'll be very surprised. At its current speed, it has 5-8 hours over water and will most likely strengthen the entire time.
WTNT44 KNHC 281057 TCDAT4
Hurricane Ian Special Discussion Number 23 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022 700 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022
This special advisory is being issued to update Ian's current and forecast intensity. Recent NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter flight-level winds are as high as 160 kt, with SFMR data around 135 kt, with a central pressure down to 937 mb. This supports a current intensity of 135 kt.
The forecast intensity is raised to 135 kt at landfall, and we are now forecasting a catastrophic storm surge of 12 to 16 ft from Englewood to Bonita Beach, Florida. No other significant changes were made to the forecast.
Well family emergency has me in Sarasota. Wind is increasing along with rain. Power flickering. I am in evac zone C. A&B already mandatory evac. Figure about 5 hours to sweat it out. Godspeed all.
"I'm probably 60nmiles from the center. This is intense. Gusts over 70mph easily. Would not be surprised if we have had gusts to 100mph.
Seawalls are breached. Surge is becoming a major problem. A lot of flooded areas. Some roads are easily waist deep."
Probably half the cars in Key West will flood again. A family friend just finished remodeling their house last month. King tide and surge coming together will likely flood their home. King tides are extremely high tides that occur this time of year.
Great advice. A lot of people are gonna be effected and they will all want to "check on their stuff" asap. If you're in the highly effected area, it will be days before you can get in (or out). Roads will be blocked by debris, bridges may be out, roofing tacks will be everywhere, power lines will be on the ground. There will be no services, no gas, no food for a while. Expect things to start moving in about three days.
Just be patient and be safe. There are a lot of hurricane virgins that going to have a tough time with this one.
On another sad note - the aircraft keep turning back due to issues. It's sad to see the state of our equipment deteriorating right before our eyes. Our government and now our military are not inspiring a great deal of confidence.
Geno Jr. is meeting me in Union Springs, AL with a generator and a window unit. I'll be gone for 6+ hours.
AF301 looks like it finally made it out of the core they were stuck in. They are pros at this. 144kt (166 mph) flight level winds at the weakest portion of the eye they went through. Probably no more recons into the eye before landfall, getting dangerous with the intense core being so close to shore. A ton of lightning to deal with makes it tough to get out sometimes. Ian has an extraordinary amount of lightning.
Pressure down to 932. Still intensifying with almost half of the storm on land.
Im in Fort Myers. A lot of rain but not too bad yet. Power is still on so that is good.
What is your elevation? Don't take that storm surge lightly. 18-10= 8.
Im not sure exactly. I am in evac zone E. They have mandatory evacs for A,B and some C assuming worst case. Im pretty far out East of 75 and North of the Airport.
I once live in Bonita Springs, weather there did not suit me and way too many people. And at 10 ft above sea level not safe. Even at age 65 I like colder weather and no crowds. I hope the best for those in areas impacted whatever they chose to do. i live at 659 ft above sea level
To the people swimming/surfing at Ft. Myers Beach - I salute you! Ya'll are driving the people on americanwx and storm2k completely nuts.
No one is doing that now. A good friend just lost his new boat, dock and house. One of his neighbor’s entire home disappeared. It’s a disaster there. Flooding, winds and storm surge.
Heard from my wife's cousin in port Charlotte. She said it got sporty but her generator is going and no water in the house. The canal behind the house is high but their house is 9 foot in elevation....I guess that's a lot in Florida.
Cape Coral was hit pretty hard but I heard the water stopped at the garage door at our place, not sure if we have a roof yet or not. Screen porch around the pool is in Georgia by now.
Heard from my wife's cousin in port Charlotte. She said it got sporty but her generator is going and no water in the house. The canal behind the house is high but their house is 9 foot in elevation....I guess that's a lot in Florida.
I guess they didn't get the 18' surge NOAA predicted. That's a really good thing.
They wanted to stay here but I told them no. They also need my generator, that is also a no.
I need to learn to say no more often.
Got screwed outta a SUV last night.
A dumbazzed friend of a friends dumbazzed wife comes rolling in on me here where I got all these rigs stored.
Truck he came in on goes roaring away, they just dropped him off.
He comes up a panicky sayin' he's gotta have a car, he needs to get two counties over and fast.
He works for Pike and they'd been moving their trucks all day staging them to go rippin' down south to rebuild all the powerlines the storm took out.
Seems Mr.Dumbazz had left his lunch bucket in one of the trucks and his car keys were in it.
Of course I've got every thing with wheels of everybody's here that needed stored and everything is full of gas.
That's why I'm camped out here like a guard dog.
The dudes story was just full of holes, says he'll be back in a couple hours "unless" he gets his call out and has to head south, "but" if that was to happen, they'd let him come home first to grab clothes. He wasn't a good lier, I was just ready to tell him to FO when his wife called me with the please, please, please schit, she's at work at the hospital.
I let them wear me down and tossed him the keys to a little Chevy SUV I had sitting here.
He was no sooner gone and the wife calls me back, she's like 'I dunno how he's gonna get in the house if his keys are in his lunchbox two counties over', I ask, why's he gotta get in the house? She says he's gotta get his clothes.
He wasn't taking calls anymore, her's or mine and of course he never came back.
Prick was lying all along, I'm sure his car is somewhere close by and outta gas, he'd got his call-out to go south before he came to see me.
That's how ya burn bridges, they'll get nothing ever again.
Christ only knows where he's left the SUV or when he might get back from South Florida.
At the risk of boring the crap out of people on this otherwise interesting thread, I’m just gonna briefly point out that “voodoo” is a West African word, from the language of the Ewe (“Eweh”) people, of present-day Ghana and Togo.
Wind, cold, and about a normal amount of rainfall, is all we got. Still wet, cold, and rainy outside. Some palm fronds are on the ground from the wind.
Douglas R. Clifford/Tampa Bay Times via AP Hundreds of people in Florida's Lee County were killed when Hurricane Ian slammed the region, a sheriff said Thursday.
“The fatalities in the hundreds," Sheriff Carmine Marceno told "Good Morning America."
"There are thousands of people that are waiting to be rescued. And again, cannot get a true assessment until we're actually on scene assessing each scene, and we can't access people that's the problem," he added.
The devastating statement came less than 24 hours after the Category 4 hurricane battered Florida's west coast, leaving much of the Fort Myers and Tampa area in ruins.
You reap what you sow when it comes to hurricanes. Just a few years ago Hurricane Michael wiped out Port St Joe and Mexico Beach, Florida, both places have built back bigger than ever. It's only a matter of time before both places are wiped out again. Common sense isn't common anymore.
We are already getting wind from this storm here in N.C. I heard the wind chimes on the front porch pick up during the night. The energy from these storms is incredible.
They wanted to stay here but I told them no. They also need my generator, that is also a no.
I need to learn to say no more often.
Got screwed outta a SUV last night.
A dumbazzed friend of a friends dumbazzed wife comes rolling in on me here where I got all these rigs stored.
Truck he came in on goes roaring away, they just dropped him off.
He comes up a panicky sayin' he's gotta have a car, he needs to get two counties over and fast.
He works for Pike and they'd been moving their trucks all day staging them to go rippin' down south to rebuild all the powerlines the storm took out.
Seems Mr.Dumbazz had left his lunch bucket in one of the trucks and his car keys were in it.
Of course I've got every thing with wheels of everybody's here that needed stored and everything is full of gas.
That's why I'm camped out here like a guard dog.
The dudes story was just full of holes, says he'll be back in a couple hours "unless" he gets his call out and has to head south, "but" if that was to happen, they'd let him come home first to grab clothes. He wasn't a good lier, I was just ready to tell him to FO when his wife called me with the please, please, please schit, she's at work at the hospital.
I let them wear me down and tossed him the keys to a little Chevy SUV I had sitting here.
He was no sooner gone and the wife calls me back, she's like 'I dunno how he's gonna get in the house if his keys are in his lunchbox two counties over', I ask, why's he gotta get in the house? She says he's gotta get his clothes.
He wasn't taking calls anymore, her's or mine and of course he never came back.
Prick was lying all along, I'm sure his car is somewhere close by and outta gas, he'd got his call-out to go south before he came to see me.
That's how ya burn bridges, they'll get nothing ever again.
Christ only knows where he's left the SUV or when he might get back from South Florida.
One of my employees evacuated from the north end of Pine Island but only to the mainland (Cape Coral). He says they have power in the hotel but comms are sketchy. He had to call me several times to get a call to go through. Even though his house is pretty new and elevated he's wondering how it stood up as word was the surge submerged the entire island.
My parents in Sun City Center, 100 miles to the north, saw a peak gust of 45 mph on their weather station. They have no TV or internet but have power and no flooding (albeit they're 80' above MSL)
I’m one of the lucky ones that had power thru the storm. Last night 96.5% of the Lee County residences where without power. I still have power this morning but no water early and just a trickle of water pressure now. No damage to my place other than one stuck security shutter. I live in an area that was built with new codes and on the east side of 75. Areas that are going to have the most damage are in the A, B and C evac zones which are near waterways and areas on or near the shore.
One of my employees evacuated from the north end of Pine Island but only to the mainland (Cape Coral). He says they have power in the hotel but comms are sketchy. He had to call me several times to get a call to go through. Even though his house is pretty new and elevated he's wondering how it stood up as word was the surge submerged the entire island.
My parents in Sun City Center, 100 miles to the north, saw a peak gust of 45 mph on their weather station. They have no TV or internet but have power and no flooding (albeit they're 80' above MSL)
Pugs. Sorry to hear that report about Pine Island. Hope your friend's house hung in there. Pine Island is a beautiful spot.
Reports are out this morning of hundreds of people dead in Lee County. My brother, who was with Florida Power for 30 years, tells me that most people get killed after the storm, not during. Fox Business this morning had reports of people being out in the water getting zapped from downed power lines. Brother also said busted tree limbs still up in the trees are called widow-makers. Also said deaths are about 10-1, after storm vs. during storm.
At the risk of boring the crap out of people on this otherwise interesting thread, I’m just gonna briefly point out that “voodoo” is a West African word, from the language of the Ewe (“Eweh”) people, of present-day Ghana and Togo.
the tourists and migrants from there to French Haiti fine tuned the concept
I have a good friend in Lake Placid. He hasn’t responded since 4:30 yesterday evening. I am worried about home and his family. Anyone here heard about the condition in that area? A lot of lakes, I’m assuming a lot of flooding.
I have a good friend in Lake Placid. He hasn’t responded since 4:30 yesterday evening. I am worried about home and his family. Anyone here heard about the condition in that area? A lot of lakes, I’m assuming a lot of flooding.
I have a good friend in Lake Placid. He hasn’t responded since 4:30 yesterday evening. I am worried about home and his family. Anyone here heard about the condition in that area? A lot of lakes, I’m assuming a lot of flooding.
Based on satellite imagery and trajectory, I was pretty sure fairly early in the day Wednesday that the northernmost part of the hurricane system was going to skirt by south of my area, leaving us with few if any effects of it. Seemed an easy prediction based on available imagery at that time.
Whenever, while passing the area, I saw people down the street rushing to fill sandbags and haul them off to their homes, I'd let them in on the above, but while many agreed, they continued to fill bags.
We had a rather normal amount of rain, plus some colder and windier than normal weather. That's it. Deo Gratias.
For those not hearing from friends and loved ones in Florida.
Keep in mind, there are millions without power that are perfectly OK.
If I couldn't charge my cell phone I wouldn't waste my battery with non-emergency calls.
The power companies are telling people that this will require rebuilding their line and pole systems, they are not repairable.
Power outages will be for days and into possibly weeks.
Be patient, hope for the best, bad news has a tendency to travel faster than good news.
When Katrina came through here we found lots of the cell towers were knocked down but we still had a land line so we could get out. Whenever my wife starts talking about getting rid of the land line, I remind her about Katrina.
Something a lot of folks don’t think about is that the gas stations may have gas in the ground but if there’s no power the pumps won’t work.
I have a good friend in Lake Placid. He hasn’t responded since 4:30 yesterday evening. I am worried about home and his family. Anyone here heard about the condition in that area? A lot of lakes, I’m assuming a lot of flooding.
When Katrina came through here we found lots of the cell towers were knocked down but we still had a land line so we could get out. Whenever my wife starts talking about getting rid of the land line, I remind her about Katrina.
Something a lot of folks don’t think about is that the gas stations may have gas in the ground but if there’s no power the pumps won’t work.
Which is why the lines start forming at gas stations in Florida four or five days in advance of a hurricane. People want to keep their cars and pickups topped off in advance.
I have a good friend in Lake Placid. He hasn’t responded since 4:30 yesterday evening. I am worried about home and his family. Anyone here heard about the condition in that area? A lot of lakes, I’m assuming a lot of flooding.
He'll be fine.
Thanks probably just cell towers down.
Jahrs, Lake Placid is just a bit north of me. Not west, which is good for your friend.
Daughter on the east coast (Palm Bay) reported a lot of rain but otherwise OK. They had put on their hurricane panels just in case. Granddaughter has gotten some time off school and is happy about that. GD
Finally heard that my wife's cousin is ok. After we talked last night no one heard a peep out of her.
Cell is crap around the port Charlotte area as can be imagined. Couple of hours ago she got a message to my father in law saying all is good. Generator is still running and she's just trying to clean their place up the best she can do. Her husband is stuck up here in MI, since I'm sure they aren't letting anyone back into the area.
All is mostly good. Still in Sarasota. Just got cell. Still no internet at the house . Power only out 10 hours. Uncle still out of power took his freezer food yesterday to save it. Heavy rain and scary winds carrying debries. Saw a tree limb hit the flag pole across the street and snap it at the base. Not some flimsy diy pole either. We lowered the pool but it filled up to close to over flow and then the power went out so we ran a submerable pump off a genny to keep the pool down or it would have flooded into the house. Lots of down trees, pool screens, awning and windows blown. Big oaks down everwhere but all family properties good with just a few trees down and no building damage. Pretty wiped out been cleaning debries from sewers grates to clear and avoid flooding but rain never came after it passed so good luck up this way. Cell & text went off and on and now back on got a bunch of text and voicemails. My cousin in Ft Meyers works for a small tight-knit outfit and the bosses home is gone. They were rescued from the attic.
Without any internet, TV or cell until cell this AM we know little outside of our area. Prayers to those in areas sout of here.
All is mostly good. Still in Sarasota. Just got cell. Still no internet at the house . Power only out 10 hours. Uncle still out of power took his freezer food yesterday to save it. Heavy rain and scary winds carrying debries. Saw a tree limb hit the flag pole across the street and snap it at the base. Not some flimsy diy pole either. We lowered the pool but it filled up to close to over flow and then the power went out so we ran a submerable pump off a genny to keep the pool down or it would have flooded into the house. Lots of down trees, pool screens, awning and windows blown. Big oaks down everwhere but all family properties good with just a few trees down and no building damage. Pretty wiped out been cleaning debries from sewers grates to clear and avoid flooding but rain never came after it passed so good luck up this way. Cell & text went off and on and now back on got a bunch of text and voicemails. My cousin in Ft Meyers works for a small tight-knit outfit and the bosses home is gone. They were rescued from the attic.
Without any internet, TV or cell until cell this AM we know little outside of our area. Prayers to those in areas sout of here.
Where does all the water go if you don’t have a pool?
All is mostly good. Still in Sarasota. Just got cell. Still no internet at the house . Power only out 10 hours. Uncle still out of power took his freezer food yesterday to save it. Heavy rain and scary winds carrying debries. Saw a tree limb hit the flag pole across the street and snap it at the base. Not some flimsy diy pole either. We lowered the pool but it filled up to close to over flow and then the power went out so we ran a submerable pump off a genny to keep the pool down or it would have flooded into the house. Lots of down trees, pool screens, awning and windows blown. Big oaks down everwhere but all family properties good with just a few trees down and no building damage. Pretty wiped out been cleaning debries from sewers grates to clear and avoid flooding but rain never came after it passed so good luck up this way. Cell & text went off and on and now back on got a bunch of text and voicemails. My cousin in Ft Meyers works for a small tight-knit outfit and the bosses home is gone. They were rescued from the attic.
Without any internet, TV or cell until cell this AM we know little outside of our area. Prayers to those in areas sout of here.
Where does all the water go if you don’t have a pool?
Besides that you need that pool water to flush the toilets. Florida cistern.
My cousins lost their summer place on Sanibel. The death count is rising. So much for the Florida might just get some rain next week predictions..Here in Jax fortunately turned out to be just that, wind and rain. Jacksonville's always been fortunate...
How were these two outside? Almost looks like they were blown from their garage or something.
Floaters.
150mph isn't so likely to blow a heavier car over before it'd of blown all the glass outta the front of that house.
Code don't allow for the underside of stilt homes to be enclosed, water has to flow through. You'll see some ground level walls but they have to be 'break-away' so they'll shear away in high winds or if pushed by flowing water.
Had a friend damn near killed by one when it fell over as he attempted to leave his stilt home during a storm.
When I see these homes, like this one, that people have spent millions building, idunno why I've never seen one with a elevated garage or parking built in at the same level as the home.
You know what a PITA it is carrying all you groceries, every piece of furniture and all your appliances up a set of stairs?
Maybe 5 to 10% of the stilt homes in my area have elevators but few are capable of accommodating furniture or appliances, maybe 1 in 100.
Of course real people that build in heavily flood prone areas, such as myself, build as well as they can, as simple as they can.
A realistic 12 or 1400 sf home that you can afford to replace if destroyed. I put more into the decks around my home to make up for needed square footage for entertainment purposes.
Maybe it's the same for guys that own homes and cars such as the one in this image, they just have lots fatter bank accounts than I do. But if that's the case, why didn't they include an elevated enclosed garage in the build!
How were these two outside? Almost looks like they were blown from their garage or something.
That is the power of water (storm surge) that did that IMHO.
That was my thought also when I saw all the sand and silt. The water is incredibly powerful. Nice pair of cars. Wonder if one or both is a Hemi or maybe 440s.
If those Birds were original they are toast now. Submersoin in salt water will turn them into junk. What a loss!!
Original they'll never be again, if I wanted to attempt a restoration I'd find me a fresh water lake or tank asap and submerge them until I was ready to strip them down to the frame and begin the restore.
Maybe my neighbor would let me borrow his swimming pool for a few weeks😉
If those Birds were original they are toast now. Submersoin in salt water will turn them into junk. What a loss!!
Original they'll never be again, if I wanted to attempt a restoration I'd find me a fresh water lake or tank asap and submerge them until I was ready to strip them down to the frame and begin the restore.
Maybe my neighbor would let me borrow his swimming pool for a few weeks😉
Yep. Quite an undertaking but worth it in the long run if you're going to keep them. Resell value just went to crap if you're honest.
But biden said there was terrible loss of life, to bad he wasn't there personally to confirm that. You know like out in the storm or talking to the dead.
How were these two outside? Almost looks like they were blown from their garage or something.
That is the power of water (storm surge) that did that IMHO.
That was my thought also when I saw all the sand and silt. The water is incredibly powerful. Nice pair of cars. Wonder if one or both is a Hemi or maybe 440s.
How were these two outside? Almost looks like they were blown from their garage or something.
That is the power of water (storm surge) that did that IMHO.
That was my thought also when I saw all the sand and silt. The water is incredibly powerful. Nice pair of cars. Wonder if one or both is a Hemi or maybe 440s.
Got a brother with a condo 10 miles south of Fort Myers Beach—his condo survived but his wife’s car turned into a submarine—got the power back already. Glad to hear Terry is OK, I know Punta Gordo got hit hard.
One pic I saw had all of these damaged planes (spam cans to jets), As mobile as they are, what were they doing in the storm area?
Yes, serious question!
Likely not airworthy. There are plenty of broke down planes around every airport. Many could fly but lack an inspection so the pilot could lose his license if he flew it out of harms way. It takes time to get a ferry permit.
![[Linked Image from i.imgur.com]](https://i.imgur.com/5xJH3KR.jpg)
![[Linked Image from i.imgur.com]](https://i.imgur.com/41UNEns.png)
![[Linked Image from i.imgur.com]](https://i.imgur.com/wH0JZO2.jpg)
![[Linked Image from i.imgur.com]](https://i.imgur.com/Lz4kf74.gif)
![[Linked Image from i.postimg.cc]](https://i.postimg.cc/prGFb2m4/308957944-5417852151641613-2686751875876954142-n.jpg)
![[Linked Image from i.kym-cdn.com]](https://i.kym-cdn.com/entries/icons/facebook/000/000/709/zkatrinalootingou1.jpg){kind=icon}
![[Linked Image from i.imgur.com]](https://i.imgur.com/WTcjp52.jpg)
![[Linked Image from i.imgur.com]](https://i.imgur.com/ZyvJZY6.gif)
![[Linked Image from i.postimg.cc]](https://i.postimg.cc/m2wWYTh1/image.png)
![[Linked Image from nhc.noaa.gov]](https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL092022_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind+png/220203_5day_cone_no_line_and_wind.png)
![[Linked Image from i.imgur.com]](https://i.imgur.com/eEIp7PC.jpg)
![[Linked Image from i.imgur.com]](https://i.imgur.com/Rthersx.png)
![[Linked Image from i.imgur.com]](https://i.imgur.com/bWnMOPh.png)
![[Linked Image from i.postimg.cc]](https://i.postimg.cc/zG189pQX/FB-IMG-1664369554083.jpg)
![[Linked Image from i.imgur.com]](https://i.imgur.com/77iG2W7.png)
![[Linked Image from i.imgur.com]](https://i.imgur.com/eOCZN3K.png)
![[Linked Image from i.imgur.com]](https://i.imgur.com/rWYvZlu.png)
![[Linked Image from i.imgur.com]](https://i.imgur.com/Ait0lMk.png)
![[Linked Image from i.imgur.com]](https://i.imgur.com/1qPVGU5.jpg)
![[Linked Image from i.imgur.com]](https://i.imgur.com/diduqZo.png)
![[Linked Image]](https://www.24hourcampfire.com/ubbthreads/gallery/80/full/202683.png)
![[Linked Image]](https://www.24hourcampfire.com/ubbthreads/gallery/80/full/202684.jpeg)
![[Linked Image]](https://www.24hourcampfire.com/ubbthreads/gallery/80/full/202685.jpeg)
![[Linked Image]](https://www.24hourcampfire.com/ubbthreads/gallery/80/full/202703.png)
![[Linked Image from i.dailymail.co.uk]](https://i.dailymail.co.uk/1s/2022/09/29/21/62942623-11261707-image-a-78_1664481815464.jpg)
![[Linked Image from carvibz.com]](https://www.carvibz.com/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/309531628_10223001343365603_8747637450617472333_n.jpg)