Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire Major hurricane Ian

and there is an obverse side of the evacuate coin. Right now, I-75 and I-4, along with the Florida TP are clogged. Bumper to bumper heavy traffic in heavy rain and wind. There won't be any motels for hundreds of miles with a vacancy, and as always in a storm like this if you go north to escape, the storm just follows you. Power outages can curtail any hope of getting refueled along the way, not to mention huge lines waiting to get a few gallons.
When a tropical system spans the entire state, there isn't a good way to escape it.
I have always felt that if you were not right on the coast, it's best to just ride it out. In the 70+ years I have lived in FL, I have seen it all, experienced the result of good and bad choices, good and bad luck. I'm still alive though.

Pretty significant lightning happening now.

Uh, we need Deflave to remind some of you without gills to man up.

Praying Deflave will be OK. Been doing so for years. I don't think GOD hears.

But some bonehead will fly into it anyway, huh.

They're all different. Some move fast with high winds and moderate surge (such as this one), some sit out there for weeks and make landfall as a Cat 1 storm, but have a Cat 5 surge. The angle that they arrive makes a difference also.

Probably the most significant thing about this one is that it's threatening a major population area that hasn't had a hurricane in 100 years.

We are waiting with baited breath.

Bring it.

Yep - both Air Force and NOAA planes fly into it almost non-stop once it's 36 hours out. The 53rd Weather Reconnaissance Squadron, a component of the 403rd Wing located at Keesler Air Force Base in Biloxi, MS flies WC-130J aircraft. NOAA has P-3 Orions and Gulfstream IV-SP (G-IV) fast movers.

I was just looking at the radar and I swear it looks to be going much more eastward than the tracks are predicting. I’m from Key West and that’s really bad news for my family that still lives there. If it goes ashore further south and travels more easterly it will save many billions of dollars in damages. Naples to Fort Myers is a relatively thin strip of development and then the Everglades. If it hits there and goes northeast it will hit a much less populated area all the way across Florida.

I was saying in my post that I’d have left two days ago when you could still get out. The roads out will be jammed and soon to become parking lots.

Have been at our Tenn place several times when storms hit anywhere between E. Texas-Florida, plenty of those 'evacuees' head up there and fill the overnight/vacation rentals.

Megyn Kelly has a small eye.

Us newshawks notice stuff like that

I would guess more eastward and south. Naples, Fort Myers are most likely in the crosshairs at this time.

It is now outperforming the models again and rapidly intensifying (with nothing in front of it to cause weakening). I would not be surprised if it becomes a C5 but I kind of doubt it will make it as it has to do so before landfall. I don't see much weakening before landfall either unfortunately. A serious cat 4 is most likely going to happen before midnight.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=09L&product=ir

This is the radar I’m watching.

I'd put something in her eye.

I have a doctor's appointment and will be out this afternoon. Hold down the fort.

Dude

I got to change out a terlot. Upgrades.

Slumlord has to do some slumlord work. Pays the bills for this one-man news outlet.

If it goes ashore Naples to Fort Myers as a high cat 4 as big as it is it will push an incredible storm surge across a wide area and basically scub those communities off the map. If you know the area they’re screwed ! Shallow approach to pile the water up on and thousands of miles of waterways pointed just about perfect to channel the surge inland. It will be horrible ! You know there will be thousands of Yankees who think they’re a long way from water and have nothing to worry about who’s house will be completely submerged.

Latest dropsonde in the eye of Ian finds 958mb - a 5mb drop in a little over an hour.

Yes, unfortunately, the western side of south Florida is about to have a very bad day. Probably starting about an hour before daylight tomorrow morning.

You need some sponsors.

You don’t have a “Tim’s Septic Tank” or “Ronnie’s Tree Service” in your area?

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One of my fishing buddies is a commercial fisherman in Venice, looks like they will be hit hard.

And we all appreciate the work you do - you're irreplaceable.



He does need some sponsors - we'll have to see if we can rustle up some folks to back him up.




Yes. Very hard. I pray I am wrong but I fear I am not.