Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire Major hurricane Ian

120 mph sustained and pressure rose to 952mb confirmed by dropsonde. Eyewall replacement was faster than any I've seen. Current eyewall has constricted to previous size. Don't see that very often.

"House is experiencing minor flooding in Key West... still about 2 more hours to high tide with the "back side" and surge side yet to impact us, hopefully it will stay minor but I am not optimistic We are staying at a hotel on the 2nd floor because we were concerned about the flood risk. I figure many must be experiencing significant flooding as our elevation is about average on the island.

This is S. Roosevelt/A1A"

I believe that’s TLee’s stamping grounds.

I hope he had his shotgun loaded and stays safe.

I'm not seeing much in the way of updates on this storm.

Report from Key West:

"I'm probably 60nmiles from the center. This is intense. Gusts over 70mph easily. Would not be surprised if we have had gusts to 100mph.

Seawalls are breached. Surge is becoming a major problem. A lot of flooded areas. Some roads are easily waist deep."

Wow. stay safe.

This 53rdWRS pass through Ian shows the new core already has 115-kt (132 mph) flight level winds and a huge area of hurricane-force winds to the northeast, which will prolong and expand impacts.

Holy smoke...

The Tennessee Mafia is gonna get... rain

Very sad to say but again, this storm has outperformed all model predictions.

155 mph sustained winds (184 mph gusts) and 935 mb pressure. If it doesn't make it to a cat 5, I'll be very surprised. At its current speed, it has 5-8 hours over water and will most likely strengthen the entire time.

WTNT44 KNHC 281057
TCDAT4

Hurricane Ian Special Discussion Number 23
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092022
700 AM EDT Wed Sep 28 2022

This special advisory is being issued to update Ian's current and
forecast intensity. Recent NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter flight-level winds are as high as 160 kt, with SFMR data
around 135 kt, with a central pressure down to 937 mb. This
supports a current intensity of 135 kt.

The forecast intensity is raised to 135 kt at landfall, and we are
now forecasting a catastrophic storm surge of 12 to 16 ft from
Englewood to Bonita Beach, Florida. No other significant changes
were made to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 28/1100Z 25.9N 82.8W 135 KT 155 MPH
12H 28/1800Z 26.7N 82.4W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 29/0600Z 27.7N 81.7W 80 KT 90 MPH...INLAND
36H 29/1800Z 28.7N 81.1W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
48H 30/0600Z 29.8N 80.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 30/1800Z 31.6N 80.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 01/0600Z 33.6N 81.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 02/0600Z 36.1N 82.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 03/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Well family emergency has me in Sarasota. Wind is increasing along with rain. Power flickering. I am in evac zone C. A&B already mandatory evac. Figure about 5 hours to sweat it out. Godspeed all.

Godspeed Brother. Hold fast for about a day.

AF aircraft 301 is staging for another pass.

Probably half the cars in Key West will flood again. A family friend just finished remodeling their house last month. King tide and surge coming together will likely flood their home. King tides are extremely high tides that occur this time of year.

Good thing there is an abundance of new and used cars in the marketplace...

Don't let the talking heads mislead you.



VV This is a far better camera, well worth the click VV

155 mph sustained winds now. Gusts over 180mph. Going up to a Cat 5 storm. This is far from over.

Wonder how high the water got as Ian passed ?

Well, I see an occasional car pass by so that's a bit of an indicator.

I’m hoping it was a bunch of nothing for Key West.

Well the power is up or these cameras wouldn't be online and running.