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Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 23,369 Likes: 2 |
Not from some ultra Right sensationalist-stir-up-the-base site, but Left leaning Politico: Politico
Republicans gain steam in Senate battle
Steven Shepard
Sat, October 22, 2022, 7:00 AM
Republicans are roaring back in the battle to control the 50-50 Senate.
Over the past week, polls show GOP candidates closing the gap in states where Democrats have led all summer — and perhaps pulling away in races that had appeared close for months.
In Pennsylvania, Mehmet Oz has inched even closer to John Fetterman. Herschel Walker is neck-and-neck with Sen. Raphael Warnock in Georgia, and Blake Masters has narrowed Sen. Mark Kelly’s lead in Arizona. And Republican polling shows Adam Laxalt squeezing past Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto in Nevada.
Meanwhile, Republicans stuck in stubbornly tied red states are beginning to show signs of building more durable advantages. Polls now show GOP candidates J.D. Vance and Ted Budd moving ahead of their Democratic opponents in Ohio and North Carolina, respectively.
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The GOP’s momentum on the Senate battlefield is consistent with national polling showing an uptick for Republicans on the generic congressional ballot, as the party holds the edge when it comes to handling most of the issues at the center of the midterm campaign — especially the economy and inflation.
And the recent polls align with the POLITICO Election Forecast, which currently rates the fight for Senate control as a “Toss Up.” Barring an upset elsewhere, if the GOP prevails in at least three of the four “Toss Up” races — Georgia, Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin — it will win the majority. Currently, polling averages show Republicans leading in Nevada and Wisconsin, and trailing — though narrowly — in Georgia and Pennsylvania.
Here is the latest in the 10 states that will decide Senate control:
1.
Arizona
MARK KELLY (D) vs. Blake Masters (R)POLITICO Election Forecast rating: Lean DemocraticRCP polling average: Kelly +2.5 (Last week: Kelly +4.5)2020 RCP polling average 17 days before the election: Biden +4Eventual margin: Biden +0.3
The most notable new poll this week came from a well-known Phoenix lobbying firm, conducted for two TV stations, which showed Kelly leading Masters by about 3 points.
That's not only closer than some other public polls — it also diverges from a trend in the other statewide race sharing top billing on the ballot: the open race for governor.
The HighGround poll had Democrat Katie Hobbs narrowly ahead of Republican Kari Lake, by about 1 point. Other polls have showed Kelly running well ahead of Hobbs, and Masters significantly behind Lake.
2.
Colorado
MICHAEL BENNET (D) vs. Joe O'Dea (R)POLITICO Election Forecast rating: Lean DemocraticRCP polling average: Bennet +7.7 (Last week: Bennet +7.7)2020 RCP polling average 17 days before the election: No averageEventual margin: Biden +13.5
Two new polls from Democratic-leaning firms show Democratic Sen. Michael Bennet on solid footing this week: One showed the incumbent ahead by 11 points over Republican Joe O'Dea, while the other shows Bennet up by 13 points.
3.
Florida
MARCO RUBIO (R) vs. Val Demings (D)POLITICO Election Forecast rating: Lean RepublicanRCP polling average: Rubio +5.7 (Last week: Rubio +4.7)2020 RCP polling average 17 days before the election: Biden +1.4Eventual margin: Trump +3.3
A new poll out Friday from Florida Atlantic University showed GOP Sen. Marco Rubio leading Democratic Rep. Val Demings by 6 points, 48 percent to 42 percent — though Demings continues to run ahead of her ticket-mate, former Gov. Charlie Crist.
4.
Georgia
RAPHAEL WARNOCK (D) vs. Herschel WalkerPOLITICO Election Forecast rating: Toss UpRCP polling average: Warnock +2.4 (Last week: Warnock +3.3)2020 RCP polling average 17 days before the election: Biden +2Eventual margin: Biden +0.3
The two new polls in Georgia this week both point to a dead heat — confirmation that the recent revelations about Walker's behavior have not significantly derailed the Republican's campaign.
A Landmark Communications poll had Warnock and Walker knotted at 46 percent, while Warnock had an insignificant, 2-point lead in an InsiderAdvantage survey.
In both surveys, the leader is at 46 percent — short of the majority needed to win the race without a runoff, which would take place on Dec. 6 if necessary.
5.
Nevada
CATHERINE CORTEZ MASTO (D) vs. Adam LaxaltPOLITICO Election Forecast rating: Toss UpRCP polling average: Laxalt +1.2 (Last week: Laxalt +1.7)2020 RCP polling average 17 days before the election: Biden +5.2Eventual margin: Biden +2.7
A CBS News/YouGov survey this week showed Laxalt just 1 point ahead of Cortez Masto, 49 percent to 48 percent.
That aligned with new polling from Laxalt's backers at the conservative Club for Growth, which commissioned a survey showing Laxalt ahead by 2 points,
6.
New Hampshire
MAGGIE HASSAN (D) vs. Don Bolduc (R)POLITICO Election Forecast rating: Lean DemocraticRCP polling average: Hassan +5.4 (Last week: Hassan +5.8)2020 RCP polling average 17 days before the election: No averageEventual margin: Biden +7.2
The only new poll in New Hampshire this week was an internal survey from Republican Don Bolduc's campaign, showing Bolduc trailing Democratic Sen. Maggie Hassan by 2 points, 49 percent to 47 percent.
Internal polls are typically released for a reason, and the underfunded Bolduc was likely trying to attract money to the sometimes-overlooked race. But Friday evening, Senate Leadership Fund canceled planned ad buys in the state, in a sign that the party doesn't see New Hampshire as a likely flip in November.
7.
North Carolina
Ted Budd (R) vs. Cheri Beasley (D)POLITICO Election Forecast rating: Lean RepublicanRCP polling average: Budd +2.8 (Last week: Budd +1.5)2020 RCP polling average 17 days before the election: Biden +2.7Eventual margin: Trump +1.3
Budd surged past Democrat Cheri Beasley in two new polls this week, including a 6-point lead in a survey from East Carolina University.
The race had remained close all summer, though East Carolina's polling has been favorable to the GOP candidate: He led Beasley by 8 points in a May post-primary poll from the school, and by 3 points in September.
8.
Ohio
J.D. Vance (R) vs. Tim Ryan (D)POLITICO Election Forecast rating: Lean RepublicanRCP polling average: Vance +2.3 (Last week: Vance +0.7)2020 RCP polling average 17 days before the election: Trump +0.5Eventual margin: Trump +8.2
After months of tied polls, Vance has squeaked past Rep. Tim Ryan in the past week, leading the Democrat by 2 points in a USA Today/Suffolk University poll, and 3 points in the latest tracking survey from the GOP firm Cygnal.
9.
Pennsylvania
Mehmet Oz (R) vs. John Fetterman (D)POLITICO Election Forecast rating: Toss UpRCP polling average: Fetterman +2.4 (Last week: Fetterman +3.4)2020 RCP polling average 17 days before the election: Biden +5.6Eventual margin: Biden +1.2
Fetterman led Oz in the polls for months, but the Republican continues to close strong in the run-up to Election Day.
Three new polls this week show either a tied race, or an inside-the-margin Fetterman advantage. And while once-divergent races in other states are starting to converge, it's notable that the tightening Senate race has come while Democratic gubernatorial candidate Josh Shapiro's lead over Republican Doug Mastriano is increasing.
10.
Wisconsin
RON JOHNSON (R) vs. Mandela Barnes (D)POLITICO Election Forecast rating: Toss UpRCP polling average: Johnson +2.8 (Last week: Johnson +2.8)2020 RCP polling average 17 days before the election: Biden +6.1Eventual margin: Biden +0.7
There were no new polls in Wisconsin this week, after last week's Marquette Law School poll suggested GOP Sen. Ron Johnson had opened up a real lead over Democrat Mandela Barnes.
"The Democrat Party looks like Titanic survivors. Partying and celebrating one moment, and huddled in lifeboats freezing the next". Hatari 2017
"Hokey religions and ancient weapons are no match for a good blaster at your side, kid." Han Solo
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Joined: Feb 2004
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Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Feb 2004
Posts: 19,221 Likes: 3 |
Pray for Charles Grassley. He's head to head with his democRAT opponent. We need him back in the Senate.
kwg
For liberals and anarchists, power and control is opium, selling envy is the fastest and easiest way to get it. TRR. American conservative. Never trust a white liberal. Malcom X Current NRA member.
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Campfire Member
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Campfire Member
Joined: Oct 2021
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I support the R people, but what do they really do?
A few good ones give me hope, but most are just donkey light.
Repeal [bleep]. Do something. Don’t be republicants!
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Joined: Feb 2020
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Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: Feb 2020
Posts: 7,245 Likes: 4 |
Headline is wrong. Should be:
MAGA Candidates Gain Steam in Senate Battle.
There. Fixed it for Politico.
Related - Turtle's candidates ain't doing chit.
Last edited by SupFoo; 10/22/22.
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Campfire Regular
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Campfire Regular
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How can a guy that's had a stroke and can't make a sentence be the best democrat candidate in Pennsylvania for the Senate?
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Joined: Apr 2005
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Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Apr 2005
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How can a guy that's had a stroke and can't make a sentence be the best democrat candidate in Pennsylvania for the Senate? It has occurred to me that this is the Democrats plan. Put a slug out as the candidate. The voters will elect it, then the party, not the candidate, will make any decisions.
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Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Jul 2005
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How can a guy that's had a stroke and can't make a sentence be the best democrat candidate in Pennsylvania for the Senate? Fuggin' OZ ain't no prize, either. IIRC, he was one of Oprah Winfrey's pet doctors, and he's espoused gun control earlier in his career, too. I don't trust that fuggwit any more than I'd trust a snake not to bite. I am not a fan of the Oz, none whatsoever. Poor old PA ain't got any good choices, just "not quite as bad".
You can roll a turd in peanuts, dip it in chocolate, and it still ain't no damn Baby Ruth.
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Campfire 'Bwana
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Campfire 'Bwana
Joined: Jun 2004
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How can a guy that's had a stroke and can't make a sentence be the best democrat candidate in Pennsylvania for the Senate? Fuggin' OZ ain't no prize, either. IIRC, he was one of Oprah Winfrey's pet doctors, and he's espoused gun control earlier in his career, too. I don't trust that fuggwit any more than I'd trust a snake not to bite. I am not a fan of the Oz, none whatsoever. Poor old PA ain't got any good choices, just "not quite as bad". Did you vote for McConnell? If not, whom did you vote for? Cuz from where I sit, McConnell makes OZ look like a fine candidate.
Give a man a fish and he eats for a day. Give a man a welfare check, a forty ounce malt liquor, a crack pipe, an Obama phone, free health insurance. and some Air Jordan's and he votes Democrat for a lifetime.
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Joined: Jun 2004
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Campfire 'Bwana
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Campfire 'Bwana
Joined: Jun 2004
Posts: 34,277 Likes: 4 |
How can a guy that's had a stroke and can't make a sentence be the best democrat candidate in Pennsylvania for the Senate? It has occurred to me that this is the Democrats plan. Put a slug out as the candidate. The voters will elect it, then the party, not the candidate, will make any decisions. Not much different than what McConnell and McDaniels are doing, pulling support and funding from MAGA candidates because they know they Cannot be controlled.
Give a man a fish and he eats for a day. Give a man a welfare check, a forty ounce malt liquor, a crack pipe, an Obama phone, free health insurance. and some Air Jordan's and he votes Democrat for a lifetime.
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Joined: Jul 2020
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Campfire Regular
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Campfire Regular
Joined: Jul 2020
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The way Biden and the Democrats have screwed this country up for the last two years amazes me the polls are so close. The party not in power (Repubs) ought to be way ahead in the polls given past midterm election history and especially how screwed up everything is now. Frankly I think most of the “polls” are a “main stream” liberal media propoganda tool to discourage MAGA and an attempt to influence liberal votes and public opinion. We saw this before in 2016. If voters keep these Democrats in power we are totally fooked.
Last edited by GAGoober; 10/23/22.
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Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Feb 2010
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I support the R people, but what do they really do?
A few good ones give me hope, but most are just donkey light.
Repeal [bleep]. Do something. Don’t be republicants! A lot of times it’s not so much what they do, it’s what they don’t do, that counts.
NRA Life,Endowment,Patron or Benefactor since '72.
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Campfire 'Bwana
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Campfire 'Bwana
Joined: Sep 2011
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How can a guy that's had a stroke and can't make a sentence be the best democrat candidate in Pennsylvania for the Senate? As others have mentioned, How can KY keep electing Mitch?
The desert is a true treasure for him who seeks refuge from men and the evil of men.
In it is contentment
In it is death and all you seek
(Quoted from "The Bleeding of the Stone" Ibrahim Al-Koni)
member of the cabal of dysfunctional squirrels?
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Joined: Jan 2016
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Campfire Oracle
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Campfire Oracle
Joined: Jan 2016
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How can a guy that's had a stroke and can't make a sentence be the best democrat candidate in Pennsylvania for the Senate? Fuggin' OZ ain't no prize, either. IIRC, he was one of Oprah Winfrey's pet doctors, and he's espoused gun control earlier in his career, too. I don't trust that fuggwit any more than I'd trust a snake not to bite. I am not a fan of the Oz, none whatsoever. Poor old PA ain't got any good choices, just "not quite as bad". Did you vote for McConnell? If not, whom did you vote for? Cuz from where I sit, McConnell makes OZ look like a fine candidate. This.
Ecc 10:2
The heart of the wise inclines to the right, but that of a fool to the left.
A Nation which leaves God behind is soon left behind.
"The Lord never asked anyone to be a tax collector, lowyer, or Redskins fan".
I Dindo Nuffin
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Campfire Kahuna
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Campfire Kahuna
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How can a guy that's had a stroke and can't make a sentence be the best democrat candidate in Pennsylvania for the Senate? As others have mentioned, How can KY keep electing Mitch? He brings home the bacon. The 'conservatives" here would vote for Obama again for better dividends.
I am MAGA.
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Campfire Oracle
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Campfire Oracle
Joined: Jan 2016
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How can a guy that's had a stroke and can't make a sentence be the best democrat candidate in Pennsylvania for the Senate? As others have mentioned, How can KY keep electing Mitch? Uh, vote fraud? Chynese wife. Chynese - Dominion connection? Eithernet?
Ecc 10:2
The heart of the wise inclines to the right, but that of a fool to the left.
A Nation which leaves God behind is soon left behind.
"The Lord never asked anyone to be a tax collector, lowyer, or Redskins fan".
I Dindo Nuffin
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Joined: Jan 2016
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Campfire Oracle
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Campfire Oracle
Joined: Jan 2016
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How can a guy that's had a stroke and can't make a sentence be the best democrat candidate in Pennsylvania for the Senate? Fuggin' OZ ain't no prize, either. IIRC, he was one of Oprah Winfrey's pet doctors, and he's espoused gun control earlier in his career, too. I don't trust that fuggwit any more than I'd trust a snake not to bite. I am not a fan of the Oz, none whatsoever. Poor old PA ain't got any good choices, just "not quite as bad". He's a muzzy. Trump said vote for Oz. Why? Know how many muzzies are in the country? Connect the Dots
Ecc 10:2
The heart of the wise inclines to the right, but that of a fool to the left.
A Nation which leaves God behind is soon left behind.
"The Lord never asked anyone to be a tax collector, lowyer, or Redskins fan".
I Dindo Nuffin
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Joined: Aug 2010
Posts: 28,163 Likes: 2
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Aug 2010
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How can a guy that's had a stroke and can't make a sentence be the best democrat candidate in Pennsylvania for the Senate? As others have mentioned, How can KY keep electing Mitch? How can a guy that's had a stroke and can't make a sentence be the best democrat candidate in Pennsylvania for the Senate? As others have mentioned, How can KY keep electing Mitch? Best start at home ![[Linked Image from i.postimg.cc]](https://i.postimg.cc/ZKCyGdpB/3nmr0u.jpg)
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Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Oct 2002
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How can a guy that's had a stroke and can't make a sentence be the best democrat candidate in Pennsylvania for the Senate? Funny post, he probably is the best they have to offer.
Dog I rescued in January ![[Linked Image from i.postimg.cc]](https://i.postimg.cc/yYDjsxrQ/IMG-0124.jpg)
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Campfire 'Bwana
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Campfire 'Bwana
Joined: Dec 2013
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How can a guy that's had a stroke and can't make a sentence be the best democrat candidate in Pennsylvania for the Senate? It has occurred to me that this is the Democrats plan. Put a slug out as the candidate. The voters will elect it, then the party, not the candidate, will make any decisions. ^^^^^^
Slaves get what they need. Free men get what they want. Rehabilitation is way overrated. Orwell wasn't wrong. GOA member disappointed NRA member 24HCF SEARCH
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Joined: Dec 2013
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Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Dec 2013
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How can a guy that's had a stroke and can't make a sentence be the best democrat candidate in Pennsylvania for the Senate? How can Dr. Oz be the best the Republicans could drum up?! JFC that part of PA must have lead in the water.
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