Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire This recession is taking a long time to get here

ADP payroll numbers out this morning. Nearly a half million new hires. Wages up 6.4%. What's a pessimist to do?

https://www.prnewswire.com/news-rel...une-annual-pay-was-up-6-4-301871086.html

Change in U.S. Private Employment: 497,000

Change by Industry Sector

- Goods-producing: 124,000

Natural resources/mining 69,000
Construction 97,000
Manufacturing -42,000

- Service-providing: 373,000

Trade/transportation/utilities 90,000
Information -30,000
Financial activities -16,000
Professional/business services -5,000
Education/health services 74,000
Leisure/hospitality 232,000
Other services 28,000

When you consider the hole that covid put us in, we have nowhere to go but up at this point... until the wheels fall off that is...

LOL, so adding jobs back that were destroyed by illegal covid restrictions is a good indicator that the economy is on steady footing? Lmao

There are going to be a chit ton of people up a creek when it hits the fan. Too many buy into the bullchit that is being fed to them by the gov

Well Dutch since you ask, go ahead and swallow, does the smell of Biden's depends turn you on? Funny how you leftards always miss the point, job quality and the fact that we are still filling jobs lost during the scamdemic.

Inflation up > 10%. 6.4% pay increase is a net loss.

Dutch,

From the 'buying a business thread' , can you comment on this please.

Your comment;
""This. You can make a six figure income without paying for it first without too much trouble.""

My comment;
Care to expound on this?
I'm interested.

He’s FOS and still hasn’t posted up his Ford Maverick hauling 1500 lbs of feed.

Manufacturing is the most important, and create dollar value. That number is down.
High amount of service jobs are not very important for dollar strength. That fluff number is up.
That was I learned in college back in the day, so those books need burned.
Good news, there has been almost no inflation in recent years according to the book cookers.

Exactly. The same evil pricks that the dummy op is listening to, are also telling us that inflation isnt really a thing currently. Alot of stupid people in this world sadly

The sad fact is that everything of consequence that you buy, i.e. heat for your house, new tires for on your car, a load of groceries etc. etc. would be 15 to 20 percent less expensive right now if Donald Trump were president. If you have lots of money and this kind of thing isn't a problem, good for you. Just know that there are a bunch of people out there that are struggling with basic necessities.

When gov stops paying people not to work, people go find jobs. Pretty amazing. With all the covid still being burned through, it could take longer than most of the experts predict to develop. Now that people have to pay student loans, mortgages, rent, etc again I expect the problem with hiring employees will sort itself out quickly. I think most of the excess covid cash will burn through system by fall. Of course a lot hinges on Powell and he continues to raise rates until something breaks badly which is what I'm expecting or pauses for while dragging it out. Manufacturing, housing, auto's, are all grinding to a halt today. Gradually at first, then all of a sudden.

That little fact seems to escape the dems. They also want to gloss over the historical facts:

42.9 Million Americans are living in poverty
27.1 Million American do not have health insurance
US Workforce in 2000 - 160 Million / US Workforce 2023 - 162.3 Million
Median New Home Price 2000 - $165,000 / Median New Home Price 2023 - $428,000
Median Income In 2000 - $31,881 / Median Income in 2023 - $35,197

Wage growth has not come close to keeping up with Inflation and cost of services.

So they added 373,000 illegals doing service work for very little money. Then the other 6,627,000 they let in are on welfare. Woooopie.

If unemployment is down why is there so many people hiring and places are cutting hours because they don't have workers/ its called government cooking the books

Inflation is WAY higher than being reported!

Fair question. I assume that someone who is interested in buying a business is someone who has the attributes to run a substantial business successfully.

That includes the ability to get out of bed and get to work without someone telling them to. Good interpersonal skills. Good work habits. Integrity. Diligence. Persistence. The ability to think strategically and to execute strategy long term.

A person like that is a highly desirable employee. The AVERAGE compensation in this country is about $56,000. A truck driver for Walmart or UPS makes over 100K. Someone with the ability to run a business successfully has the ability to get into sales or other above average income occupation pretty much at will. Someone like Pharmseller makes well into the 200K range, with all the bennies. Project manager, construction management and occupations like that are always looking for self starters.

That said, many people that don't run businesses think that operating a business is like having six Saturdays and a Sunday, and those types aren't going to be making six figures in business or as an employee.

I've mentioned this a couple of times here.
A friends wife Paula works in a government office - she's privy to info that doesn't pertain to her actual job. According to her there are millions of young people who have never filed a 1040 form > because they've never had a job.

My nephew is 34 years old and is one of them, although I'm told he did come close to getting a job 10-12 years ago. He even got the McDonalds uniforms but decided it just wasn't worth the effort,, laf.

Dutch, thanks for the reply.

Completely bad info.

The average worker lost about 4%in real wages...about <8% if 2 people in household working Inflation 5-9 % depending on source.

Here is something to think about. I do quite bit of business with a large GS in Northern Wisconsin. Spoke to my guy there 2 hours ago. They have been selling handguns like hot cakes for years.

Now traffic is slow and lots of customers bringing handguns to sell . Some bought on "excitement " at the time . However , most need the cash.

A customer bought a new Python last week for $ 1600.00. Last Friday he was in ....had to generate immediate cash ...would take $ 900.00.

Recession taking a long time ....BS not what I see.

I have customers all over the world , and fortunately that is the exception.