Russian President Vladimir Putin’s August 24 remarks about Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s death established the Kremlin-approved narrative on the issue, and Russian government officials, Kremlin affiliates, and the Russian information space continued to toe this line on August 25. Some prominent voices in the Russian information space notably deviated from Putin’s established narrative, however. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko issued a statement on Prigozhin’s death on August 25 that likely aimed at balancing his relationship with the Kremlin with maintaining domestic control, but that also directly contradicted his previous statements concerning the deal he brokered between the Kremlin and Prigozhin. The Financial Times reported on the bleak future of the Wagner Group’s operations in Africa following Prigozhin’s death. Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 25 as Russian milbloggers expressed concern over a lack of reinforcements and troop rotations in the area. Reports of a Russian unit suffering significant losses with inadequate support on an unspecified island in the Dnipro River delta sparked outrage against the Russian military command in some parts of the Russian information space. Ukrainian drones likely struck a Russian duty station in occupied Crimea on August 25. Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in western Donetsk Oblast on August 25 and advanced. Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations in at least two sectors of the front on August 25 and advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Russian authorities are likely setting conditions to falsify the results of the September 2023 regional elections in occupied Ukraine.
"Russia sucks." ---- Me, US Army (retired) 12B & 51B
Russian Admiral said, after the Moskva sank, "we have the world's worst navy but we aren't as bad as our army".
Russian President Vladimir Putin’s August 24 remarks about Wagner financier Yevgeny Prigozhin’s death established the Kremlin-approved narrative on the issue, and Russian government officials, Kremlin affiliates, and the Russian information space continued to toe this line on August 25. Some prominent voices in the Russian information space notably deviated from Putin’s established narrative, however. Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko issued a statement on Prigozhin’s death on August 25 that likely aimed at balancing his relationship with the Kremlin with maintaining domestic control, but that also directly contradicted his previous statements concerning the deal he brokered between the Kremlin and Prigozhin. The Financial Times reported on the bleak future of the Wagner Group’s operations in Africa following Prigozhin’s death. Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Robotyne in western Zaporizhia Oblast on August 25 as Russian milbloggers expressed concern over a lack of reinforcements and troop rotations in the area. Reports of a Russian unit suffering significant losses with inadequate support on an unspecified island in the Dnipro River delta sparked outrage against the Russian military command in some parts of the Russian information space. Ukrainian drones likely struck a Russian duty station in occupied Crimea on August 25. Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, and in western Donetsk Oblast on August 25 and advanced. Ukrainian forces conducted offensive operations in at least two sectors of the front on August 25 and advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Russian authorities are likely setting conditions to falsify the results of the September 2023 regional elections in occupied Ukraine.
If Rick Bin invented the butt fugker award, I’d nominate you every time.
What would a Ukrainian victory look like, and is it achievable? Seemingly demoralized by the ongoing Ukrainian offensive’s slow progress, many analysts have predicted that a Ukrainian victory is impossible.
Russia, so the argument goes, can hold its defensive lines indefinitely because its resources are greater than Ukraine’s.
Hence, a long-lasting war of attrition is unwinnable for Ukraine—as well as, possibly, for Russia.
Since stalemate is unavoidable, negotiations should begin sooner rather than later. Neither side may get what it wants, but at least fewer lives will be lost.
Ukrainians roundly reject this scenario, while Russians generally endorse it, even if not openly. That’s significant, testifying to Ukrainian confidence that they can win and Russian uncertainty about their current capacities.
Naturally, both sides could be wrong, so a closer look at the reasoning outlined above is worthwhile.
Ukraine’s Offensive in Trouble? Not Exactly Has Ukraine’s offensive stalled? Yes, but only if one measures progress in territorial gains, which, though not insignificant, have been modest. If, alternatively, one broadens one’s notion of progress to include Russia’s entire war-fighting capabilities—which include ammunition dumps, infrastructure, communications, fuel depots, and the like—then the answer has to be a resounding no.
As the United States Military Academy’s Jan Kallberg rightly says:
Intelligence analysts may look at the map of Southern Ukraine and see distances; military planners will apply the military math and see something very different. They know that to crush the Russian army and strangle the troops in frontline fortifications, they don’t need to advance 50 miles. 10 miles will do it.
Why? Because although it would be great if Ukrainian troops broke through to the shores of the Sea of Azov, they do not have to. Instead, they can achieve a significant operational outcome by bringing Russia’s ground line of communication (GLOC) under their guns.
Indeed, says Kallberg, having liberated the village of Robotyne, some 55 miles from the Sea of Azov, “the Ukrainians need to advance by a further … 7–10 miles, in order to range their guns on Russia’s east-west transport routes that are critical to the ability of its army and armed forces to fight.”
Kallberg’s conclusion is worth underscoring: “If Ukraine can interdict these road and rail links, it’s very hard to see how the Russian army can continue to fight.”
There is every reason to think that Ukraine’s General Staff shares Kallberg’s analysis, especially as they know that a large-scale frontal offensive of the kind impatient Western analysts and commentators would like to see would be suicidal without the air power the West has refused to supply.
Russia’s Resources: Greater Than Ukraine? Are Russia’s resources—as measured in numbers of soldiers, armaments, etc.—greater than Ukraine’s? Well, of course they are, and they always were. And yet, as the failure of last year’s invasion showed, the quality and morale of the fighting forces, leadership, and equipment are arguably more important than sheer numbers. Ukraine demonstrated the truth of this proposition four times in 2022: when it stopped Russia at Kyiv’s doorstep, when it forced the Russians to withdraw from Kyiv, Sumy, and Chernihiv provinces, and when it recaptured parts of Kharkiv and Kherson provinces.
Moreover, Ukraine’s resources aren’t all that matters. Western assistance to Ukraine has been of immense importance and to no small degree accounts for Ukraine’s ability to liberate about half the territory seized by Russia in the months immediately after the attack. The West’s resources aren’t infinite, and its willingness to provide them may also be limited, but the West could, if it wanted, ensure a Ukrainian victory.
Can Russia Fight Forever? Finally, can Russia fight indefinitely?
Well, yes, if one simply looks at the numbers. With a population of about 140 million, Russian casualties appear tiny. But numbers, again, aren’t all that matters. Will Russian men continue to go blindly to their deaths? Will the Russian population tolerate indefinitely such a self-slaughter? Will Russian elites?
After all, the elites know that this is Vladimir Putin’s war. His position, as both the Prigozhin Mutiny and his seeming demise have demonstrated, is shaky at best. Will Russia continue to fight if Putin dies or is killed? Just asking these questions suggests that the answers are anything but obvious.
What Does Victory Look Like for Ukraine? What, then, would a Ukrainian victory look like? The minimum would be a withdrawal of Russian forces from the territories it occupied in 2022. The maximum would be a complete withdrawal of the territories Russia seized in 2014—the Crimea and Donbas. Both scenarios would have to entail Russian reparations, which could be as high as $3 trillion, continued Western armament of Ukraine, some form of security guarantees, and serious movement toward European Union and NATO membership.
Would Russia agree to such terms? If it loses the war, yes: it would have no choice. If Putin is deposed and a more or less pro-Western coalition succeeds Putin, then also yes: Russia would want a durable peace.
To repeat: Ukraine can win, but only if the West lets it win. A Ukrainian victory would obviously enable Ukraine to rebuild, but it would also provide Russia with a historic opportunity to abandon fascism and imperialism and take a serious stab at democracy.
"Russia sucks." ---- Me, US Army (retired) 12B & 51B
Russian Admiral said, after the Moskva sank, "we have the world's worst navy but we aren't as bad as our army".
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, August 27, 2023
Key Takeaways:
Ukrainian forces reportedly advanced in the western Donetsk-eastern Zaporizhia Oblast border area and in western Zaporizhia Oblast amid Ukrainian counteroffensive operations in southern and eastern Ukraine. A Ukrainian soldier likely operating in the Robotyne area offered further tactical details on the prepared Russian defensive positions that Ukrainian forces have penetrated and on those that are currently ahead of them. The composition of Russian defensive positions in southern Ukraine and the ambiguities about how Russian forces are manning and equipping them continues to obscure how the next phase of fighting will transpire. Russian forces conducted missile strikes against targets in Ukraine on the night of August 26 to 27 and reportedly targeted a Ukrainian airfield in Kyiv Oblast. The Russian Investigative Committee announced on August 27 that genetic tests confirm that Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin was among 10 people killed in a plane crash on August 23. Russian milbloggers claimed that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) had been actively setting conditions to halt Wagner Group’s operations in the Middle East and Africa prior to Prigozhin’s death on August 23. The Russian MoD may be more intensely focused on disbanding the Wagner Group than Russian President Vladimir Putin. Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City line, in western Donetsk Oblast, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast but did not make confirmed advances. Russian authorities continue efforts to coerce migrants and foreigners living in Russia to fight in the war in Ukraine in exchange for Russian citizenship
"Russia sucks." ---- Me, US Army (retired) 12B & 51B
Russian Admiral said, after the Moskva sank, "we have the world's worst navy but we aren't as bad as our army".
A Ukrainian drone captured a compelling video near Tokmak, suggesting that Russian soldiers may have used a child as a shield to defend against drone attacks.
A Ukrainian drone captured a compelling video near Tokmak, suggesting that Russian soldiers may have used a child as a shield to defend against drone attacks.
Slava Ukraine, Idi k Chertovoy Materi Rossia[/quote] Ukraine can only be glorious after all their corruption is rooted out. Mother Russian isn't going anywhere my boy. At least when Tucker interviews Putin we can hear his side, so far we have been fed a lot of inconsistencies by western media.
Ukraine can only be glorious after all their corruption is rooted out. Mother Russian isn't going anywhere my boy. At least when Tucker interviews Putin we can hear his side, so far we have been fed a lot of inconsistencies by western media.[/quote]
Inconsistencies are nothing new. During the time (early 70s) when the U.S. Army was insisting I join the news media always said the enemy casualties were heavy and U.S. casualties were light. Even at my young age of 19 I could see the U.S. was in full retreat. My father was quite irritated that I wouldn't go. I told him I wasn't going to be the last one killed in Vietnam covering our retreat.
Last edited by Hastings; 08/28/23.
Patriotism (and religion) is the last refuge of a scoundrel.
On August 24, 2023, the U.S. Department of Defense announced its contribution to the international effort to train and equip Ukrainian Armed Forces with F-16 Fighting Falcon jet fighters. "The training provided by the United States will complement the F-16 pilot and maintenance training that's already underway in Europe and further deepens our support of the F-16 training coalition led by Denmark and the Netherlands," Pentagon Press Secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder said at a press briefing. "Moving forward, we will remain in close consultation with the Danes, the Dutch and other allies to ensure U.S. training complements the broader coalition training efforts."
English language training for pilots will begin in September at Lackland Air Force Base in San Antonio, Texas while flight training is expected to begin in October at Morris Air National Guard Base in Tucson, Arizona. The training will be facilitated by the 162nd Wing of the Arizona Air National Guard. Following the successful completion of training, the Netherlands and Denmark have received the support of the U.S. to provide their legacy F-16s to Ukraine as both countries transition their air forces to the F-35 Lightning II Joint Strike Fighter.
F-16 training for Ukrainians is also being conducted in Europe, including in the Netherlands and Denmark. To ensure the quickest delivery of F-16s to Ukraine, the U.S. is preempting any training capacity restraints in Europe. Ryder noted that Ukraine will ultimately decide how many of its pilots will go through the training. Depending on the proficiency of the students, the flight training may take several months. It takes the U.S. Air Force roughly two years to convert an untrained officer into a fully-fledged F-16 fighter pilot.
Helping to accelerate the F-16 training, Ukrainian students will already be trained pilots. "Part of this training will be assessing the individual pilots' skill level, which will determine help to determine how long that training will last," Ryder said. "Your basic, new F-16 pilot with not a lot of training on the U.S. side, that training typically lasts about eight months." Training will range from basic flight training to air combat maneuvering and weapons employment. Ryder highlighted that more experienced pilots may complete the training in as little as five months. In addition to pilots, Ukrainian ground crews will be trained on logistics and maintenance for F-16s.
"Russia sucks." ---- Me, US Army (retired) 12B & 51B
Russian Admiral said, after the Moskva sank, "we have the world's worst navy but we aren't as bad as our army".
Flying an F-16 in range of a S-300 or S-400 anti aircraft system is a creative way for a pilot to commit suicide. But most of them will probably be destroyed on the ground.
Ukraine is full of people who are eyes for Russia. Nothing goes un-noticed.
Flying an F-16 in range of a S-300 or S-400 anti aircraft system is a creative way for a pilot to commit suicide. But most of them will probably be destroyed on the ground.
Ukraine is full of people who are eyes for Russia. Nothing goes un-noticed.
A A missile systems need radar to work. As soon as the radar is turned on it becomes a target. That's why tactics matter...
US-Ukraine Brass Write off Counteroffensive After 57,000 Casualties, Focus on Force-Drafting New Conscripts for 2024. So much for that, the best thing Ukrainian brass can do is come to the table with uncle Putin and sue for peace.
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