I suggest writing to the Ballistic Studies people and asking them for their proof sources. Without actual testing to prove his claim, I have no opinion either way. I do know that cast bullet companies have long talked about hardening cast bullets and how that hardness changes over time. There are many differences in the lead alloys used for cast bullets and the core of cup and core bullets so the possibility of age hardening/softening will be different.
Beartooth quote From “Beartooth Bullets’:
“Since Beartooth Bullets Are Heat-Treated, Do They Age-Soften? :: By on 2001-01-29
“Beartooth Bullets are indeed heat-treated. We heat treat our bullets to a BHN 22, and over the course of 18 months they will age-soften to a BHN 21, where they will remain stabile indefinitely.
We have very carefully and intentionally chosen our alloy with a target BHN of 21 in mind. When heat-treated to BHN 22, the alloy only loses one BHN point when stored at normal room temperatures. This means that the load you work up today with our bullets will perform the same several years from now when stored under normal circumstances. Our bullets will not ever get softer than BHN 21, from aging or storage.”
There is a lot of information on cast bullet hardness if you do some searching for it.