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https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates


Christina Harward, Angelica Evans, Riley Bailey, Grace Mappes, and Frederick W. Kagan

November 8, 2023, 5:45pm ET

Russian President Vladimir Putin will reportedly avoid centering his 2024 presidential campaign on the war in Ukraine and will rather focus on Russia’s alleged stability and criticisms of the West.
####probably because Russia is losing .

Ukrainian forces continued counteroffensive operations near Bakhmut and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on November 8.
Select Russian milbloggers claimed that Russian commanders may be making operational and tactical decisions using maps of the battlefield in Ukraine that differ from tactical reality.
Russian President Vladimir Putin promoted 44 Russian military and internal affairs officers, including Eastern Grouping of Forces Commander Andrei Kuzmenko, to general officer rank on November 8.
Ukrainian partisans and military intelligence assassinated a prominent Luhansk People’s Republic (LNR) official accused of conducting war crimes in occupied Ukraine.
Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in western Donetsk Oblast, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on November 8 and advanced in some areas.
Russia is reportedly attempting to reacquire components for military equipment from states to which it previously sold the equipment, including Egypt, Pakistan, Brazil, and Belarus.
Russian occupation administrations continue to create new administrative bodies meant to further integrate occupied territories into Russian governance systems.

https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/t-14-armata-russias-failed-super-tank-has-bleak-future-207206

T-14 Armata: Russia's Failed Super Tank Has a Bleak Future
Back in 2010, the T-14 Armata was first conceptualized following the cancelation of the T-95 program. The Russian tank has a had quite a few problems to deal with.

by Maya Carlin


Russia's T-14 Armata Tank, Explained - Russia’s ongoing invasion of Ukraine is proving main battle tanks can play a critical role in modern warfare.

Now that Kyiv has begun to receive dozens of advanced tanks from the U.S. and its NATO allies, Moscow’s own dwindling arsenal is in even more trouble.

In the early days of the war, Russian forces heavily relied on Soviet-era armored vehicles to push into Ukraine’s territories.

Equipped with scores of foreign-imported anti-tank weaponry, however, Kyiv obliterated many of these older tanks. Russia finally deployed its “top-of-the-line” T-14 Armata MBT in the springtime.

Long touted by the Kremlin as the best of the best, the Armata reportedly is unmatched in its capabilities.

Despite these claims, the T-14’s tenure n the Ukraine invasion was short-lived, indicating the tank may not be the powerhouse that Russia would like the public to believe.

Introducing the Armata:
Back in 2010, the T-14 Armata was first conceptualized following the cancelation of the T-95 program.

Manufacturer Uralvagonzavod based its Object 148 project on the T-95 at this time, and the Russian Army began cutting T-90 orders with the anticipation that the new MBT would replace it.

In 2015, the Armata made its first public appearance at the Moscow Victory Day Parade. During this celebration, one of the Armatas being paraded around experienced a system failure and needed to be towed away. It seems the tank’s lackluster performance history would only get worse over the years.

Russia’s Ministry of Defense and Trade revealed in 2020 that the T-14 had been combat-tested in Syria, indicating the tank was ready to be mass-produced.

Over a decade ago, Moscow claimed that more than 2,000 Armatas would enter service with the Russian military by 2020.

In reality, no more than a few dozen have been built as of last year.

How does the Armata compare to other MBTS?
The T-14 does stand out when compared to previous Russian MBTs. In the Armata’s unmanned turret, crew members are positioned in a protected and separated compartment where survivability is much higher.

As detailed in Military Watch Magazine, “The tank’s frontal base armour protection of over 900mm, paired with Malachit explosive reactive armour and the AFGHANIT active protection system, provides an extreme degree of survivability. The T-14’s sensors and armaments are also highly prized and major improvements over those of older vehicles, with its Vacuum-1 APFSDS projectiles having an extreme penetrative capability considered sufficient to frontally penetrate any of the vehicles currently in the Ukrainian theatre.”

While advanced thermal sights may aid the Armatas to locate Ukraine’s armored vehicles at specific ranges, they don’t necessarily make the tank immune to Kyiv’s tactics.

When up against Ukraine’s arsenal of anti-tank weaponry, including the American-made FGM-148 Javelin and HIMARS, the T-90 likely doesn’t stand a chance.

Armament-wise, the Armata is theoretically more capable than its Soviet-era predecessors. The tank series is equipped with a 125mm 2A82-1M smoothbore gun and can carry 45 rounds of ammunition. Additionally, the main gun is capable of firing laser-guided missiles. A sophisticated hull fitted with a modular armor system made of composite and steel materials is more capable of fending off enemy fire.

Perhaps most significantly, the Armata’s sensors and armaments are far more advanced than older tanks.

The T-14 Armata’s short tenure in Ukraine was not successful
Despite the Armata’s purported capabilities, the tank’s deployment to the Ukraine war was short-lived.

Back in April, the T-14 made its first appearance in the conflict. A video widely circulated at the time depicted one of these tanks firing on Ukrainian positions one month later, marking the tank’s first reported operation since February 2022.

According to the Russian state news outlet TASS, T-14s were pulled from Ukraine over the summer: "The Armata was actively used by the (SMD) in combat operations, a military source told the agency. Several units participated in battle to see how the tank would perform. They were then withdrawn from the front line. All the necessary tests of the T-14 tank are still ongoing.”

Obviously, the Armata was not performing up to standard. This is the only rational explanation as to why these tanks were pulled. Considering Russia’s rapidly dwindling armored vehicle stockpile, any additional MBTs should have been warmly welcomed by troops.

More than half of Moscow’s tanks have been destroyed by Ukraine since the onset of the war. Now that American M1A1 Abrams tanks will be joining British Challengers and German Leopard IIs to support Kyiv’s counteroffensive, Moscow’s armored corps will suffer further.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

Riley Bailey, Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, Angelica Evans, Amin Soltani, and Frederick W. Kagan

November 9, 2023, 6:55pm ET


The Russian military command will likely struggle to redeploy combat effective reinforcements to respond to ongoing Ukrainian operations in eastern Kherson Oblast while conducting defensive operations in western Zaporizhia Oblast and sustaining other offensive efforts in eastern Ukraine.
Russian forces have likely launched opportunistic localized offensive operations in the Bakhmut direction and intensified ground attacks near Bakhmut in recent days.
Russian forces struck a civilian ship near Odesa City on November 8.
Kremlin Press Secretary Dmitry Peskov stated that Russian President Vladimir Putin's annual live "Direct Line" forum and annual press conference will occur in tandem on an unspecified date by the end of the year, potentially to set conditions to cancel the events as the Kremlin sees fit.
Russia may seek to provide gas to Iran through Kazakhstan.
Unspecified actors appear to be targeting Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov as he continues to heap honors on his children.
Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, in the Avdiivka direction, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced near Kupyansk.
Russian authorities appear to be increasingly reliant on private security companies to protect domestic energy infrastructure from Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian far rear areas.
Occupation authorities reportedly continued efforts to militarize Ukrainian youth.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

Christina Harward, Grace Mappes, Kateryna Stepanenko, Angelica Evans, and Frederick W. Kagan

November 10, 2023, 8:30pm ET


Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) stated that Ukrainian surface attack drones sank two Russian Black Sea Fleet (BSF) small landing ships in occupied Crimea on November 10.


Russian milbloggers continue to overreact to the Russian failure to push Ukrainian forces from positions in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast.
Russian forces are launching significantly smaller and less frequent drone strikes against Ukraine in the past month than in previous months ahead of an anticipated large-scale winter strike campaign.
Russian President Vladimir Putin again visited the Southern Military District (SMD) headquarters in Rostov-on-Don on November 10, possibly in an effort to portray himself as an involved wartime leader ahead of the upcoming presidential elections in March 2024.
Russian President Vladimir Putin will reportedly hold his annual live “Direct Line” forum and annual press conference in tandem on December 14, and the event will likely serve to promote his presidential campaign.
Ukrainian Ombudsman Dmitry Lubinets announced on November 10 that Bohdan Yermokhin, a 17-year-old Ukrainian whom Russian authorities forcibly deported from occupied Mariupol to Russia and attempted to conscript, will return to Ukraine.
The United Kingdom-led Operation Interflex has achieved its goal of training 30,000 Ukrainian soldiers between June 2022 and December 2023.
Russian forces conducted offensive operations on November 10 along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in western Donetsk Oblast, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced in some areas.
Russian forces continue to struggle with low morale and poor discipline.
Ukrainian Telegram channel Mariupol Resistance and Ukrainian Mariupol City Advisor Petro Andryushchenko reported on November 10 that Ukrainian partisans detonated a police car in occupied Mariupol, Donetsk Oblast.

Kim Dotcom on twitter..
The chatter from the power table is that both Biden and Zelenskyy get pushed out. Biden won’t run in 2024 and Zelenskyy will be gone within 3 months. It’s also the end of Von der Leyen. The reshuffle makes serious negotiations with Russia possible. Now a necessity for the West.

Basically it looks like the Russians have secured a buffer zone against NATO and if Ukraine is allowed to exist as a diminished in size nation maybe it will understand that it should not threaten Russia at the behest of the U.S./NATO. All this killing of ethnic Russians and bio-weapon labs might not seem such a good idea anymore.

Did Russia surrender yet?

That’s the question I have been asking for about 2 years now. Beginning to look like Tdoyka, Houston, and John Burns may be fixing to experience heartbreak.

wow

ISW has previously observed that Russian forces are increasingly relying on such infantry-led frontal assaults, likely to compensate for a lack of adequately trained personnel and due to widespread equipment losses.[23] The Russian General Staff appears to be relying heavily on frontal assaults as the predominant tactic in Ukraine as an important part of the Russian solution to the problems of "military parity" laid out by Zaluzhnyi's essay on the issue of "positional warfare."


https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

Karolina Hird, Grace Mappes, Christina Harward, Angelica Evans, and Frederick W. Kagan

November 11, 2023, 6:15pm ET


Russian forces launched a large-scale missile and drone strike series against Ukraine on the night of November 10 to 11, targeting Kyiv Oblast for the first time in 52 days.
Ukraine’s Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) was reportedly involved in at least one of three strikes on Russian territory on November 10-11.
Continued Russian milblogger discussion of widespread Russian infantry-led frontal assaults highlights the challenges Russia will face in using massed infantry assaults to offset the problems contributing to the current positional warfare identified by Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi.
Chechen Republic Head Ramzan Kadyrov appears to be increasingly sidelining his eldest son, 18-year-old Akhmat Kadyrov, in favor of his younger son Adam Kadyrov.
Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and advanced near Avdiivka.
Russian authorities have reportedly launched another large-scale crypto-mobilization wave.
Russian authorities continue efforts to fill out the workforce and artificially alter the demographics of occupied Ukraine.

Hilarious!

Hilarious! is the fact that last week, the near nonexistent Ukrainian AF with a Su-25 launching a Storm Shadow cruise missile massively damaged russia's newest ship before it could even be commissioned. Nearly obliterating the 220' missile carrying Corvette.

Phil

Uketard -

You do realize, posting this unmitigated garbage ad nauseam, doesn't actually help your cause?

No you lying Quisling. You have prayed for a Orc victory and now you want to move goal posts.



I, on the other hand, have always been spot on and realistic.

No you lying Quisling. You have prayed for a Orc victory and now you want to move goal posts.


I, on the other hand, have always been spot on and realistic.

John: You might do well to go back to re-hab. Russia has this well in hand and has bled Ukraine/NATO almost dry. Europe is looking for a way out.

As to Quisling, you are the one supporting the Nazis in this conflict. As did Quisling in Norway.

It’s amazing to me just how similar these Ukraine threads have been to the COVID ones.

Same willingness to swallow MSM stories uncritically, same disconnection from actual history, same fanaticism, and amazingly, same posters on either side.