Christina Harward, Angelica Evans, Riley Bailey, and Frederick W. Kagan
December 15, 2023
German outlet BILD stated on December 14 that unspecified intelligence findings and sources indicate that Russia plans to occupy Ukrainian territory beyond the four (illegally) annexed Ukrainian oblasts throughout 2024-2026. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov threateningly urged Ukraine to negotiate with Russia sooner rather than later in framing consistent with the ISW assessment that Russia intends to achieve its maximalist objectives in Ukraine through military means. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba published an op-ed entitled “There is a Path to Victory in Ukraine” on December 15, wherein he argues that Ukrainian military objectives remain feasible despite increasingly pessimistic discussions in the West. Russian forces conducted a series of missile and drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of December 14 to 15. Finnish authorities closed Finland’s border checkpoints with Russia again on December 15 amid continued Russian hybrid warfare efforts to orchestrate an artificial migrant crisis. Germany announced new military and humanitarian aid packages to Ukraine on December 14. Russian forces continued offensive operations near Kupyansk, northeast and near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast and made confirmed advances in several areas. Kremlin newswire TASS reported on December 14 that “Grom” special units (elite anti-drug special units of the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs [MVD]) will fully transition to being subordinated to Rosgvardia in early 2024. Russian President Vladimir Putin highlighted Russia’s intention to build high-speed railways in occupied Ukraine, likely hours after Ukrainian partisans damaged a key railway line in occupied Zaporizhia Oblast.
"Russia sucks." ---- Me, US Army (retired) 12B & 51B
Russian Admiral said, after the Moskva sank, "we have the world's worst navy but we aren't as bad as our army".
Riley Bailey, Kateryna Stepanenko, Christina Harward, Angelica Evans, and Frederick W. Kagan
December 16, 2023
Ukrainian forces continue operations on the east (left) bank of the Dnipro River in Kherson Oblast amid reported difficult conditions in the area as part of an apparent effort to set conditions for future Ukrainian operations and the resettlement of west (right) bank Kherson Oblast. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s supporters formally nominated him as an independent candidate for the 2024 presidential elections on December 16, further solidifying Putin’s image as a figure above the Russian political system. Russia’s First Deputy Permanent Representative to the United Nations Dmitri Polyanskiy more clearly defined recent statements from high-ranking Russian officials that align with ISW’s long-standing assessment that Russia is unwilling to negotiate with Ukraine in good faith. Russian forces launched another series of Shahed-136/131 drone strikes across Ukraine overnight on December 15 to 16. The Financial Times (FT) reported on December 15 that the G7 may consider using frozen Russian assets to fund Ukraine. Russian actors continue information operations aimed at discrediting and dividing Ukraine’s military and political leadership, specifically Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and Commander-in-Chief General Valerii Zaluzhnyi. A Russian “Storm-Z” assault unit instructor implied that Russian President Vladimir Putin lied about the unregulated status of private military companies (PMCs) during his “Direct Line” forum on December 14 given the state’s significant administrative control over PMCs and other irregular formations. Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia Oblast on December 16 and advanced in some areas. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russia will have at least ten Project 22350 Admiral Gorshkov-class frigates in an unspecified time period. Ukrainian Mariupol Mayoral Advisor Petro Andryushchenko and the Ukrainian Telegram channel Mariupol Resistance stated on December 16 that Ukrainian partisans recently blew up the car of the commander of an unspecified Russian unit from the North Caucasus in occupied Mariupol.
Russia has lost nearly 90% of its troops in Ukraine war: US intel report By Mallika Soni Dec 13, 2023 09:43 PM IST
Russia-Ukraine War: Losses are the reason Russia has loosened recruitment standards for deployment in Ukraine.
A declassified US intelligence report assessed that the Ukraine war has cost Russia 315,000 dead and injured troops- nearly 90% of the personnel it had when the conflict began. The report also claimed that Moscow's losses in personnel and armored vehicles to Ukraine's military have set back Russia’s military modernization by 18 years, news agency Reuters reported.
Russian officials have said that Western estimates of death tolls in the war are vastly exaggerated and always underestimate Ukrainian losses.
The report assessed that Russia began its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 with 360,000 personnel. Since then, the report found, 315,000 Russian troops, or about 87% of the total soldiers, have been killed or injured.
“Those losses are the reason Russia has loosened recruitment standards for deployment in Ukraine,” Reuters reported.
The assessment said, “The scale of losses has forced Russia to take extraordinary measures to sustain its ability to fight. Russia declared a partial mobilization of 300,000 personnel in late 2022, and has relaxed standards to allow recruitment of convicts and older civilians.”
The Russian army began the war with 3,100 tanks, lost 2,200 of them and has had to "backfill" that force with T62 tanks produced in the 1970s, leaving it only 1,300 tanks on the battlefield, it added. Earlier this year, a New York Times report cited US officials as putting the Ukrainian death toll at close to 70,000.
A report in Ukrainian journal Tyzhden said that 24,500 Ukrainian combat and non-combat deaths occurred. This was curated using open sources. The real figure was likely higher, it was reported.
"Russia sucks." ---- Me, US Army (retired) 12B & 51B
Russian Admiral said, after the Moskva sank, "we have the world's worst navy but we aren't as bad as our army".
The northern facade of Avdiyivka. Aerial reconnaissance of the 47th OMBr shows fields littered with the bodies of Russian attack aircraft after failed attacks on Steppe, M2 Bradley work and artillery on enemy assault groups.
Riley Bailey, Kateryna Stepanenko, Christina Harward, and Frederick W. Kagan
December 17, 2023
Russian President Vladimir Putin threatened Finland and the wider NATO alliance in a statement ostensibly meant to dismiss concerns about the threat Russia poses to NATO. Putin’s reassurances about his peaceful intentions toward NATO ring hollow in the context of the threats he and Kremlin pundits have recently been making against NATO member states. Putin has been seeking to curtail and weaken NATO for two decades and continually demands changes to the alliance that would amount to dismantling it. Putin’s interview indicated that he continues to perceive the West as weak, contrasting with his confidence in the growth of Russia’s power over the past two decades. Putin is increasingly invoking a purposefully broad, vague, and pseudo-realist conception of Russian sovereignty in an effort to justify Russian goals to impose Putin’s will in Ukraine and beyond. Putin continues to express a world view in which Russia must impose its will without any compromise or face existential consequences. The Kremlin's repeated rhetoric about its hostile intent towards NATO, coupled with Russia’s potential future military capabilities in the event of Russian victory in Ukraine, poses a credible - and costly - threat to Western security. Russian forces conducted a series of missile and drones strikes against Ukraine on the night of December 16 to 17. Russian forces conducted offensive operations along the Kupyansk-Svatove-Kreminna line, near Bakhmut, near Avdiivka, west and southwest of Donetsk City, in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area, and in western Zaporizhia on December 17 and advanced in some areas. Relatives of Russian mobilized personnel continue to appeal directly to high-ranking Russian military and political officials about demobilization and the return of their relatives from Ukraine. The Kremlin continues attempts to expand political infrastructure in occupied Ukraine in an effort to further integrate occupied territories into Russia.
"Russia sucks." ---- Me, US Army (retired) 12B & 51B
Russian Admiral said, after the Moskva sank, "we have the world's worst navy but we aren't as bad as our army".
![[Linked Image from external-content.duckduckgo.com]](https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia.giphy.com%2Fmedia%2Ff4Dv6Lb2K8Snvd8B2l%2Fgiphy.gif&f=1&nofb=1&ipt=dc4163f983ac654984a53fc571ee4b41c06fd5e8708c33b352884a39fe932ce9.gif)
![[Linked Image from external-content.duckduckgo.com]](https://external-content.duckduckgo.com/iu/?u=https%3A%2F%2Fmedia.giphy.com%2Fmedia%2Ft7fTZB37asHWE%2Fgiphy.gif&f=1&nofb=1&ipt=d16b15d854bd6bfdc40eff8cc5b84c5cb20be4e439a2cf8fbf25ea26361c58c9.gif)
![[Linked Image from i.postimg.cc]](https://i.postimg.cc/s2n981Hh/joe2.jpg)