Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Ask The Gunwriters Shortages and price increases

Just some info in case you are on the fence about buying some supplies - drover

Hey folks-
Have you got enough ammo for the coming year, even mundane rimfire stuff like this CCI Standard Velocity 22lr or this CCI Mini-Mag 36gr Cu- HP? Did I tell you that the Hunting Shack (HSM) operations manager told me last week that Hodgdon raised their bulk powder prices by 30% in mid-Jan?

Here's what Sam Galbert (owner of SGAmmo.com) put out in his marketing email today:

"News from Shotshow 2024: I just got home from 4 days in Las Vegas at the shotshow, where I met with the people from the factories we work with, factory sales people, factory directors and owners, importers, etc. The big point of discussion seemed to be shortness in supply for nitrocellulose, which is the raw material used to make gunpowder and other propellants and explosives. Based on these conversations, the issue seems to be based on 2 factors, decreased availability in the supply chain and increased demand for the manufacturing of military ordnance. Getting into the details and a little more, a huge percentage of the nitrocellulose used to make gunpowder historically came from China and Russia, however according to my conversations with industry partners, the Chinese manufacturers who historically were the biggest suppliers at over 30% of the market share are no longer willing to ship raw nitrocellulose to the USA or NATO member countries in attempt to reduce the USA & NATO's ability to supply Ukrainian forces with artillery shells, and of course Russia who historically was the 2nd biggest supplier is out of the supply chain as well. This decrease in supply in raw material has gunpowder manufacturers in the USA raising prices dramatically and cutting off many of the smaller ammo manufacturers. The 2nd part of this issue is the demand for military ordnance, like 155mm artillery shells that use huge quantities gunpowder propellants, and the gunpowder manufacturers switching production to this type of gunpowder with what supply of nitrocellulose they do get. The first reason is that they always put the US government's needs before those of the commercial market, and the second reason is that it is simply much more profitable to manufacturer military ordnance than it is small caliber ammunition, so they get a much more profitable price manufacturing powder for artillery shells. In conclusion, while most of the factories seem to have gunpowder stockpiled today, this issue is expected to catch up to them no later than the summer of 2024 and possibly within a few months, and when it does it will mean the factories will be capable of producing much less small caliber ammunition to sell to the US commercial market. If demand for ammo is low to moderate, you may not see a big change, but if demand were to go way up as it does periodically, the factories will not be able to ramp up capacity to fill that demand. In my opinion, a lot could go wrong in the commercial ammo supply chain in 2024 and it would be wise to stock up sooner than later as 2024 price increases have just started to set in on just a handful of select items so far, and availability is still good which has held prices down temporarily".

FJB

Once again, reliance on foreign countries to manufacture components critical to national defense is nothing short of asinine. China and Russia being the number 1 and number 2 suppliers of nitrocellulose is utter nonsense.

How hard can it be to set up a plant in this country? The engineering is probably pretty simple but the red tape rigmarole to set up a nitrocellulose plant in this country is likely mind boggling.

Some of us stocked up under Trump....

Saw a few 8 pounders over at Sportsman's the other day, for around $450.00.

Yeah, right....I'll let it be available for someone else who is desperate enough to pay that sort of price...

I certainly don't need to.

Amen brother !

To make cellulose, it takes a pulp mill set up for that. We had two in the province, the one in Prince Rupert got changed over. Then the mill has been shut down for a long time. I don't know about the other one, I think it got changed over ,too. Pulp was much more profitable.

The largest producers of nitrocellulose are Nobel and Nitrochemie. VV makes all of their own nitrocellulose. Last I knew most nitrocellulose used for propellent production in North America is made in North America. It is inflation that is still working its way through the system and demand created by military production that is driving prices.

I can’t imagine why ammo and powder manufacturers would claim they will be forced to increase the cost on everything so people should buy everything available as fast as possible. Surely they wouldn’t be attempting to create another hoarding extravaganza?🤔

Sam Gabbert provides GOOD SERVICE !

Build back Better. Tired yet?

At end of day it like any other hobby. You can get by with a few guns cheap or expensive, go shoot .22s and cheap promo loads at trap house. Or you can be like most here in the hobby and spend a fair amount upgrading and chasing the next best thing. I have way more than I need to hunt and could about set up all of my kids. Doesn’t mean I’m to stop buying, heck I know guys who spend $200 a week on golf plus clubs.

As long as it doesn’t put ya in poor house go to your hearts content, however I can think of very few free hobbies

Hate being caught short because I was cheap. Just bought a 8 pound jug of Varget from PV. It was more than I care to spend but I like the idea it will be on my shelf to use.