I don't believe economic instability has ever made a basically hostile country less dangerous. Even if the communist regime were to pack its bags and disappear like a vapor, the consequences might not necessarily be something we would consider to be an improvement. Their nuclear arsenal will be in someone's hands and that someone might be the worst imaginable.
I make no predictions.
Don't be the darkness.
America will perish while those who should be standing guard are satisfying their lusts.
Gents, have no fear, The United States of America will bailout China under the guise of too big to fail. Never mind all the people inside the beltway and Corporate CEOs who are beholden to the Chinese Communist Party (CPP) for financial reasons and blackmailed for other heinous and dubious acts.
Lot's of disdain, even hate for Peter Zeihan on the fire, but damned if he didn't nail it again. In a nutshell, he has always maintained the actual value of the yuan has no basis in reality...ie, it is worth what Xi says it is. Add to that, those around Xi are afraid to tell Xi he is wrong or even give him bad news...those who do tell the truth just disappear. We all know about China's debt problems ad nauseum, debt pyramided on more debt, until now common Chinese people fleeing the Yuan wanting something tangible for their money (they dare not put it in state banks which are routinely closed on Xi's order) are now making payments on apartments that have not been built yet, those which have been built are empty in deserted cites where no one lives. Worthless. Add to that and much more serious, middle easterners who supply China's lifeblood of oil, are backing away from the Yuan. This could be fatal. As Steve said, BRICS is starting to look like the sensation headline of last year...that turns out to be a fart in a hurricane. We haven't even mentioned unemployment, as hordes of factory workers flee back to their home provinces, empty containers flooding Chinese ports, containership traffic tanking, etc.
Well this is a fine pickle we're in, should'a listened to Joe McCarthy and George Orwell I guess.
I don't believe economic instability has ever made a basically hostile country less dangerous. Even if the communist regime were to pack its bags and disappear like a vapor, the consequences might not necessarily be something we would consider to be an improvement. Their nuclear arsenal will be in someone's hands and that someone might be the worst imaginable.
I make no predictions.
River, You are exactly right. China MAY be more dangerous now. Economic instability, historically is one of the triggers of war in 'modern' times. What pushed the US into WW2? The Japs and Pearl. But, why did the Japs attack? The US embargoed oil and steel, choking Japan's emerging economy to death. Roosevelt got his war that was very unpopular at home. We would have maybe gotten in eventually anyway...maybe. Many say WW2 wouldn't have started but because the WW1 allies just destroyed the German economy with the Versailles treaty, and literally robbed and plundered German industry, banking and shipping..so the Nazi party came to power and the rest is storytime. I hope our leadership doesn't back China into a corner so tightly, that China's only option is to attack...that is not appeasement, that is a history lesson.
Well this is a fine pickle we're in, should'a listened to Joe McCarthy and George Orwell I guess.
Lot's of disdain, even hate for Peter Zeihan on the fire, but damned if he didn't nail it again. In a nutshell, he has always maintained the actual value of the yuan has no basis in reality...ie, it is worth what Xi says it is. Add to that, those around Xi are afraid to tell Xi he is wrong or even give him bad news...those who do tell the truth just disappear. We all know about China's debt problems ad nauseum, debt pyramided on more debt, until now common Chinese people fleeing the Yuan wanting something tangible for their money (they dare not put it in state banks which are routinely closed on Xi's order) are now making payments on apartments that have not been built yet, those which have been built are empty in deserted cites where no one lives. Worthless. Add to that and much more serious, middle easterners who supply China's lifeblood of oil, are backing away from the Yuan. This could be fatal. As Steve said, BRICS is starting to look like the sensation headline of last year...that turns out to be a fart in a hurricane. We haven't even mentioned unemployment, as hordes of factory workers flee back to their home provinces, empty containers flooding Chinese ports, containership traffic tanking, etc.
As usual, good analysis flintlocke.
So can you put in plain terms what you think will happen to the petro dollar?
I have the economic acumen of a drunken sailor in Bangkok. Having admitted that, a number of sources tell me several things I didn't know... China's second choice for oil is Russia. But, the bulk of Russian production comes from Siberia...the Russians themselves do not know how to operate their own production facilities (I didn't know that International oil companies have been operating the Siberian fields) and the oil companies pulled out under sanction rules when Putin decided to attack the Ukes. Many Siberian wells are literally frozen solid, it takes months to get them going again, who knew. The reasons Russian oil is number 2 on China's shopping list...look at the map...transportation, impractical if not almost impossible without mega projects for pipelines or rail to ice free ports. And...back to currency, Russia doesn't want Yuan, and China don't want no stinking Rubles while sanctions exist during the Uke war. So if my sources are correct, the petro dollar will remain the worlds medium of exchange at least as long as Putin keeps his war going. The naysayers ask, what about India, aren't they a player? Two things occur to me here, India's GDP still falls behind the GDP of California. One state. The second thing is, what was China thinking when they started grabbing real estate on India's northern border? Did China think about the Indian navy sitting astride the sea lanes from which China gets it's oil...which by the way, most experts agree has only a 15 to 30 day supply. China is in a bad place...and BRICS for now is a joke. Some sources suggest there is actual physical gold being traded between Russia and China...how quaint. A lovely old fashion notion.
Last edited by flintlocke; 02/07/24.
Well this is a fine pickle we're in, should'a listened to Joe McCarthy and George Orwell I guess.
I have the economic acumen of a drunken sailor in Bangkok. Having admitted that, a number of sources tell me several things I didn't know... China's second choice for oil is Russia. But, the bulk of Russian production comes from Siberia...the Russians themselves do not know how to operate their own production facilities (I didn't know that International oil companies have been operating the Siberian fields) and the oil companies pulled out under sanction rules when Putin decided to attack the Ukes. Many Siberian wells are literally frozen solid, it takes months to get them going again, who knew. The reasons Russian oil is number 2 on China's shopping list...look at the map...transportation, impractical if not almost impossible without mega projects for pipelines or rail to ice free ports. And...back to currency, Russia doesn't want Yuan, and China don't want no stinking Rubles while sanctions exist during the Uke war. So if my sources are correct, the petro dollar will remain the worlds medium of exchange at least as long as Putin keeps his war going. The naysayers ask, what about India, aren't they a player? Two things occur to me here, India's GDP still falls behind the GDP of California. One state. The second thing is, what was China thinking when they started grabbing real estate on India's northern border? Did China think about the Indian navy sitting astride the sea lanes from which China gets it's oil...which by the way, most experts agree has only a 15 to 30 day supply. China is in a bad place...and BRICS for now is a joke. Some sources suggest there is actual physical gold being traded between Russia and China...how quaint. A lovely old fashion notion.
Yes the Russians and Chinese are flying plane loads of gold back and forth for payment.
As for BRICKS, name one BRICK currency any one here is holding in lieu of dollars.
You didn't use logic or reason to get into this opinion, I cannot use logic or reason to get you out of it.
You cannot over estimate the unimportance of nearly everything. John Maxwell
![[Linked Image from i.postimg.cc]](https://i.postimg.cc/qMjL6f8C/27-FD3-F35-D9-CF-4-FC0-AE24-D01508-F7-AF1-C.gif)
