Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire U.S. heading toward recession ?

Haha. Yeah. Probably never happen with those $6 steaks.

As my Dad used to say, Wish in one hand and spit in the other. See which one fills up faster. Lol.

Real money should be worth at least 10%. Broke dicks in debt up to their eyeballs shouldn't be rewarded with low interest rates. I paid 16% interest on my first house loan. I'd like to see these rates again at my local bank.

Economists used to talk a lot about the “natural interest rate”, i.e. the interest rate that would prevail if the government would keep their cotton picking fingers out of the economy.

The consensus is that it’s a real (net of inflation) rate of less than 5% in modern times. Usually less than 3.

It’s proof of the literal sea of money out there looking to be put to work, but finding nothing but cheap returns on bonds and mortgage based securities.

Spot on Sam.

All 30k of it lol

Totally agree with this. I know so many people that aren't going to skip that trip to Vegas or Disney Land no matter how much it cost...Or, won't skip buying the latest and greatest cell phone or paying hundreds for the kids on Christmas to make sure there is a big pile under the tree......

Just put it on a card and pay it off later...Then later never comes. My wife and most of her family and a lot of friends we have are like this. Took a long time to break her of the credit card addiction BS.

Fugg! Not this chit again?


Remember all you hillbillies predictions?


$10 gas

NWO

Food Shortages

WWIII

LOL!

You forgot Manchurian candidateS and Kenyans and Traitors in the White House. Oh, nevermind.

Cool...

I love Brahms, Beethoven and Bach

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Three_Bs

local dirt,

You hit a key point in those who are insulated.

Personally, we have decent income and 0 debt.
We buy groceries and bitch about numbers. But we buy what we want, and leave
with some money still in our wallet. It's very easy to spend 1/3to 1/2 my paycheck
on a big grocery trip.

We see inflation.



Folks less well off, are picking and choosing. Out of need.
Putting stuff back on shelves. Leaving with less than they want, and no money left over. Spending half a paycheck, and it's not a big, stocking up, order.

They feel inflation.





Those who are well off?
Maybe they see it.
Maybe they give it a thought.

Inflation doesn't matter.



I think something is wrong with economic reports.
Very few in manufacturing tell me they are real busy.
In my sphere, we should lay off about 20% of our workers.
I firmly believe they are keeping them due to the impossibility of hiring.
We are involved in a certain infrastructure item. It has been very short in supply,
since before covid. That business was booming, but it has suddenly slowed considerably. While the shortage continues?


REI laid off a substantial number of employees at their distribution center here.
What wasn't disclosed was the total jobs cut, because a huge part of their staff
has been "permanent" Temps.

There also is some weird thing going on in hiring.
I know we have struggled, for a fact.
But I've seen what I think are decent prospects apply to a couple places "Begging" for
workers. And they never hear a peep. Odd. A place running full page ads weekly,
offering the moon, from laborers up. Doesn't respond, at all?

GFY

Your observations are supported by data.

Employers are VERY reluctant to let anyone go because they have been traumatized by the difficulties filling spots over the past few years. They figure the cost of keeping excess employees is lower than the cost of hiring. Wages are still climbing, and new hires often come in at market rates. Old timers are often under market.

Employers are also continuing to advertise for employees, attempting to collect resumes just in case they decide they need employees again. They are testing out what they need to offer in compensation to attract applicants as well. This is sometimes referred to as “ghost positions”: open, advertised positions that are not being filled.

Sam, the dollar is going to collapse. There is no way around it. You guys have to understand that 34 trillion dollars in debt is not sustainable right? The dollar is dying, the country is dying. Food and fuel prices are bad, not quite sure how you arent seeing that.

The rubber band snapped here about the second week of January. We couldn't get anyone to apply and since then we've had good candidates coming through the door 2-3 days/week. Most have been laid off somewhere else, some are from moving, very few have been sitting on sidelines.

Tells me that overall market is getting crunched a bit. How much, we'll see. I do know we have some good candidates coming on board and we can finally fire the non-productive ones we've been reluctant to let go.

We need a bankruptcy professional in the Whitehouse. The only way to keep the peace is to keep printing money and giving it to the deadbeats and freeloaders.

They will use this tactic to "justify" hiring all these illegal aliens being imported. "We can`t find no one willing to work, look how long we have advertised"...Both parties are selling this country and the working class out wholesale.

What kinds of food do you buy? Tbones and prime rib?

I was just south for a bit. Grocery prices were 1/2 compared to what I pay in AK. I was actually surprised how low they were considering all the doom and gloom I had been hearing.

The fuggers do this every time they get stuck with inventory.


They scream about a collapse, mark everything up and sell twice what they have.

Fuggem.

How is this possible? You makin $16/hour? I would say get a better job.

Heck not even Conrad is that broke.

Finally. A little conversation without the knuckle draggers simply saying GFY. 🤣

Here’s the deal. The economy is wonderful if your smart. Too many people aren’t however. Less than 50% of all Americans have a retirement account, and of those, the average balance is pathetic. I could give a rats ass what the interest rate on a new car is. Wanna know why? I’m not financing a new car. But guess what, everyday I see people who I KNOW make a chit ton less than I do driving brand new diesel pickups that are approaching $100k, if not more. I’ve never owned a brand new vehicle, and my wife and I drive Toyotas because they last forever. The average retirement account in the US for my age bracket is about $142k, and the median is $48k. That is fuggin pathetic!! When my wife hires someone, one of the things she pushes is her companies 401k. You know what she hears from potential employees? Crickets. Half of her employees do not participate in the companies 401k. These aren’t uneducated people either, as many have their Doctoret degrees. When I lived in Georgia, I loved laughing at the redneck construction workers driving brand new trucks they financed for 10+ years. I put more in my 401k every year than they make, but they had nicer trucks, phones, TV’s etc. These are the people complaining because those trucks they have to finance cost a hell of a lot more money now. Yes, prices are up due to Covid inflation, the question for those complaining is are you doing your part to be financially successful, or are you trying to keep up with the Jones and being an idiot financially? The numbers say most Americans are being idiots.