I have said before and I still stand by it. I don't believe Trump can be elected. He is now the presumptive Republican nominee. We are about to see an attack on a political candidate that is unlike anything else we have ever seen. The opposition has shown that they will do anything to beat Trump once and we'll see it again. If Trump has a snowball's chance in hell, here's what it boils down to.
It all boils down to swing voters in Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia and Arizona. A wise political tactician would identify what matters to swing voters in those states, and focus like a laser on them. He needs to be careful not to neglect FL and NC. They aren't gimmes.
Trump needs to keep his message as positive as possible. An example of something that Trump needs to make sure is front and center:
https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/doc...rumps-policies-have-delivered-for-black. Trumps needs to be very careful about alienating voting Hispanics. For the most part, their values are better aligned with traditional conservative views than liberal views. Most came here for our freedoms and opportunities. He needs to say good things about hard working Hispanic voters. He needs to stay on his message about deportations of ALL BAD Illegal Immigrants of ALL ethnicities.
He needs to stand on his immigration record. He brought more order to the border than we have seen in decades. He needs to focus on that as not only a national security issue, but also a HUMANITARIAN issue. Child trafficking, Drug overdose increases and things like this
https://www.texastribune.org/2022/06/27/bodies-18-wheeler-san-antonio-lackland/ should be a big part of the conversation.
He needs to win over suburban moms in those swing states. Parental rights matter to them. We have seen our education system hijacked by fringe leftists. Parents should rightly be pissed. Schools are focusing on indoctrination more than academics and it shows in the numbers.
https://www.bestcolleges.com/research/average-act-score/He needs to stand on his economic record. We have all felt the pain of rising prices. Grab some good economic data points and hammer them home. Compare his inflation adjusted wage growth numbers to Biden's. Point to Biden's inflation numbers. Remind Americans of what they were under Biden. The Biden team will obviously point to the recent leveling off, so Trump will need to stay on point that Biden delivered the highest inflation in 40 years.
The world was a much calmer place under Trump than Biden. Putin didn't dare cross into Ukraine under Trump's watch. Hamas didn't dare launch an attack on Israeli civilians under his watch. Houthis weren't attacking merchant ships in the Middle East under his watch. China wasn't sending spy balloons over our country under his watch. Al Queda all but disappeared under his watch. We weren't funding 2 wars under his watch.
Trump needs to be careful with his January 6 messaging. Focus on the "march PEACEFULLY and patriotically to let your VOICES be heard" comment and leave it at that. He needs to remind everyone that he approved the deployment of the national guard. He'll need to be able to explain why it took 3 hours for him to tell the rioters to go home. He cannot veer off message and freelance here. A lot of swing voters have been propagandized heavily on this issue. Hammer home the most positive messages and stubbornly refuse to be taken off task.
He needs to be careful with his COVID messaging. He laid the foundation for the expedient delivery of vaccines. A lot of swing voters are not anti-vaxxers. He needs to point to the fact that his mortality numbers in his first year with COVID were better than Biden's in his first full year, that despite the fact that Biden had the vaccine. He can point to the military members who were kicked out by Biden for refusing the vaccine, then invited to come back. Trump was and remains heavily criticized for being critical of much of what he saw out of government agencies during COVID. That acknowledged that his instincts were correct.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/08/17/cdc-agency-overhaul-covid-19-response-00052384He needs to continually point to the weaponization of the DOJ. Take the most blatantly clear examples and hammer them home. Ordering the FBI to spy on parents.
https://oversight.house.gov/release/gop-leaders-react-to-nsba-investigation/ "Today, the NSBA released the results of an internal investigation into the letter. The results of the investigation further confirms that America’s parents were the target of a coordinated political operation, all for doing nothing more than exercising their fundamental right to direct the upbringing of their children." Then there's the FBI collaboration with social media.
https://www.cnbc.com/2023/09/11/fbi...ocial-media-platforms-appeals-court.htmlTrump loves to go off script. He'll have to be extra careful not to do so where investigations are involved. The investigations can work to provide him cover for not wanting to say much about anything related to them.
Stolen election. This doesn't sit well with a lot of swing voters. The notion of a stolen election doesn't even sit well with some Republicans. He simply needs to present himself as the America's voice of concern on this matter. Americans saw some things that were alarming, and he wanted to carry their voice.
https://www.leelanau.gov/downloads/b_wiesner_04182023.pdf Wisconsin's Supreme Court was one vote away from overturning the election. Trump can make it well known that Americans are demanding an uncompromising level of election integrity and trust in the system. Our system should be so beyond reproach that we don't find a state engaging in the kind of business that results in a decision that was one vote away from overturning the election.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/wisconsin-supreme-court-close-flipping-state-trump.htmlAbortion will come up. He didn't overturn Roe v Wade. The Supreme Court handed the issue to the states as as the constitution prescribes. Where people try to present it as a women's rights issue, he can simply say that he and many Americans place value on that precious form of life developing inside of a woman. In fact the law even places value on that life and that's why we have feticide laws. The most liberal state in the nation, California even places so much value on that form of life that people can be charged with feticide and even murder for wrongly terminating that form of life.
As a reminder, Trump doesn't need to do anything to win 99.9% of our membership. We are in his pocket and we aren't leaving. The few here who support Biden aren't going to change their mind.