Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire Ukraine’s “Counter-Offensive” Major Belly Flop

Don't forget that Ukraine Special Operation Forces also took out another russian top tier electronic jamming station Wednesday.


Phil

LOL!

cuckraine sends war amputees back ta the front line.

The remains of World War II soldiers are being dug up in Lvov's Lychakiv cemetery to make way for the dead from the Donbass front, The New York Times reports.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates


Riley Bailey, Grace Mappes, Christina Harward, Angelica Evans, and Frederick W. Kagan

April 13, 2024


Russian forces are pursuing at least three operational-level efforts that are not mutually reinforcing but let Russian forces prioritize grinding, tactical gains on a single sector of their choice at a time. Ukrainian forces will increasingly struggle to defend against these Russian efforts the longer Ukraine lacks further US military assistance.
The Russian military command likely assesses that Ukrainian forces will be unable to defend against current and future Russian offensive operations due to delays in or the permanent end of US military assistance.
The offensive effort to seize Chasiv Yar offers Russian forces the most immediate prospects for operationally significant advances as the seizure of the town would likely allow Russian forces to launch subsequent offensive operations against the cities that form in effect a significant Ukrainian defensive belt in Donetsk Oblast.
Russian threats to Druzhkivka and Kostyantynivka are very operationally significant since these “fortress” cities help form the backbone of the Ukrainian defense in Donetsk Oblast and of eastern Ukraine in general.
Russian forces may not be able to seize Chasiv Yar rapidly and would likely struggle to leverage its operational significance immediately as long as Ukrainian forces have the resources needed to hold their positions.
Ukrainian artillery and air defense shortages resulting from the lack of US security assistance are allowing Russian mechanized forces to make marginal tactical advances, and future Russian mechanized assaults may be able to achieve more significant gains should the US continue to withhold assistance to Ukraine.
Germany announced that it will immediately transfer another Patriot air defense system to Ukraine in response to recent very urgent Ukrainian requests for additional Patriot systems to defend against the increased Russian strike campaign and ongoing Ukrainian efforts to expand Ukraine’s air defense capabilities.
Russian forces made confirmed advances near Chasiv Yar (west of Bakhmut) and Donetsk City.
Bloomberg reported on April 12 that Russia still relies on Chinese companies to supply most of the foreign-produced machine tool components and microelectronics to Russia’s defense industry for Russian weapons production.

Ukraine at ‘Serious Risk’ of Collapse, Ex-British General Warns

By the end of the year, Kiev’s forces will be struggling to “defend the indefensible,” General Sir Richard Barrons told the BBC

Retired UK general Sir Richard Barrons has told the BBC that there is “a serious risk” of Ukraine losing the conflict with Russia this year. With ammunition and manpower running low, Barrons warned that Ukrainian forces may be unable to hold back a major Russian offensive this summer.

“We are seeing Russia batter away at the front line, employing a five-to-one advantage in artillery, ammunition, and a surplus of people reinforced by the use of newish weapons,” Barrons told the British broadcaster.

LMAO, Bidet is going to throw Ukraine under the bus to try and fail stabilizing the middle east to protect oil supplies since he drained the NPR and its an election year.

Ukraine drones have now hit 18 different Russian oil refineries affecting 3.9 million barrels per day of refining production.

JP Morgan

🚂🚂

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

Nicole Wolkov, Riley Bailey, Grace Mappes, Angelica Evans, and Frederick W. Kagan

April 14, 2024 DAY 781 out of Putler's 3 day war.


Israel’s success in defending against large-scale Iranian missile and drone strikes from Iranian territory on April 13 underscores the vulnerabilities that Ukrainian geography and the continued degradation of Ukraine’s air defense umbrella pose for Ukrainian efforts to defend against regular Russian missile and drone strikes.
The exhaustion of US-provided air defenses resulting from delays in the resumption of US military assistance to Ukraine combined with improvements in Russian strike tactics have led to increasing effectiveness of the Russian strike campaign in Ukraine.
Russia’s strike campaign against Ukraine demonstrates that even a limited number of successful ballistic or cruise missile strikes can cause significant and likely long-term damage to energy and other infrastructure, highlighting the need for an effective and well-provisioned air defense umbrella capable of a sustained high rate of interception.
The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MFA) is falsely equating the April 13 large-scale Iranian strikes targeting Israel with the April 1 Israeli strike targeting Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) officials in Damascus, amplifying Iran’s “justification” for the April 13 strikes.
Russian milbloggers largely responded to the April 13 Iranian strikes against Israel by suggesting that the increased threat of military escalation in the Middle East will likely draw Western, specifically US, attention and aid away from Ukraine.
Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Colonel General Oleksandr Syrskyi reported that the senior Russian military command aims to seize Chasiv Yar, Donetsk Oblast by Russia’s Victory Day holiday on May 9.
The Russian military’s ongoing restructuring of the Western Military District (WMD) into the Moscow and Leningrad military districts (MMD and LMD) is reportedly shifting areas of operational responsibility (AOR) for Russian force groupings in Ukraine.
The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) has reportedly fired the commanders of a combined arms army and motorized rifle regiment operating in southern Ukraine likely for failing to recapture areas lost during the Ukrainian summer-fall 2023 counteroffensive.
Ukrainian forces advanced south of Kreminna and southwest of Donetsk City and Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Chasiv Yar (west of Bakhmut) and Avdiivka.

This is hilarious! Ukraine threatens the United States over air defense. Ukraine told the US to send more air defense systems or else they will double down on attacking Russian oil infrastructure, thus throwing the oil market into disarray and ruining FJB's chances of being re-elected!

https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2024/04/15/ukraine-russia-oil-refinery-attacks/

Watch - now the CIA will HELP Russia! Or at least the US will somehow give Ukraine a big screwing. They will be ripped from the nipple.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/ukraine-conflict-updates

Christina Harward, Grace Mappes, Nicole Wolkov, Kateryna Stepanenko, and George Barros

April 15, 2024


Ukrainian officials continue to warn that US security assistance is vital to Ukrainian forces’ ability to defend against current and future Russian offensive operations forecasted to begin in late spring and summer.
A senior Estonian military official described intensified Russian offensive frontline operations and deep rear area strike campaigns as intended to degrade both Ukraine’s will to fight and Western unity.
Russian forces continue to adapt their drone tactics along the frontline as part of an offense-defense arms race to mitigate Ukrainian technological adaptions to offset Russian materiel advantages along the frontline.
Russian officials doubled down on efforts to amplify Iran’s “justification” for the April 13 large-scale Iranian strikes against Israel that falsely equates them with an April 1 Israeli strike targeting Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) officials in Damascus.
A Russian insider source claimed that Russian officials are preparing to redeploy some former Wagner Group elements serving in Africa Corps to Belgorod Oblast.
Crimean occupation administration head Sergei Aksyonov passed a decree restricting migrant labor in occupied Crimea, undermining the Kremlin’s effort to mitigate labor shortages.
Russian state media seized on Georgian protests against a proposed law similar to Russia’s “foreign agent” law, likely as part of Kremlin efforts to amplify political discord in Georgia.
Russian forces recently made confirmed advances near Siversk (northeast of Bakhmut), Avdiivka, and west of Donetsk City on April 15.
Russian prosecution rates of men who had fled compulsory military service have reportedly increased since fall 2022.

House Speaker Johnson has decoupled aid bills for presentation breaking them up into aid for Israel, Ukraine and Taiwan.

WAPO, WSJ

Even China believes russia will fail...

Link

only the right believe they will succeed.


Phil

Phil,
If[when] this invasion ends do you believe that Russia will occupy:

A. more land mass than pre Ukraine invasion

B. less land mass than pre Ukraine invasion

Ukraine will wind up with its pre 2014 borders reinstated... and be admitted to NATO....
What's more, russia will wind up paying for a good portion of Ukraine's reconstruction!

Phil

OK

For what purpose will NATO serve if.......Russia fails?

And if Russia is going to 'fail', how will this happen[paying]?

A.

When the invasion first began, I figured that the Dnieper would be the new border, with the eastern half annexed to Russia and a Russian-satellite state controlling the western half of Ukraine. That was based on my analysis of the initial Russian assault and how it compared with the Russian reconquest of the Ukraine in 1943. I thought Russia would be able to "boom, headshot" Ukraine. Russia's logistical, operational, and tactical incompetence put an end to that. The idea that the Russians would be road bound frankly never crossed my mind. I figured they would be able to swoop down in overwhelming force along the MSRs, but not be limited to the MSRs. And that they would achieve their objectives before the spring thaw set in, at which point no one would really be able to respond while they entrenched. And by the time the West got around to doing something, it would be a fait accompli. Needless to say, that didn't happen. Russian tanks stranded on the roads out of gas, troops unable to maneuver off the roads. It was like the Russians in Afghanistan all over again (I highly recommend reading The Bear Went Over the Mountain by Lester Grau). The fact that Russia failed so spectacularly tells me that his government and senior leaders within his military are probably full of the same moronic and spineless yes men that our government and military coddle so well. I know from personal experience that it is dangerous to speak truth to power in the U.S. military. My observations of the Russian military suggest that it is likely much the same over there (just different politics).

At this point, it is a stalemate as long as the West keeps supporting Ukraine. There's no way Ukraine takes back all the lost areas. There's no way - short of the West pulling the rug out from under Ukraine as we did in Afghanistan or Vietnam - that Russia takes much more of the country. Best case scenario for Ukraine is an outcome like the Korean War, with a demarcation line that effectively becomes the new Iron Curtain.

That assessment is based on a career in the military, not based on "what I think the United States should or should not do" in this situation.

NATO will eventually honor their 94 agreements that russia, and the U.S. has renegued on...

Phil