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More perspective/insights on the subject. This applies to components too.
Don

from pajamasmedia.com

Nationwide Ammunition Shortage Hits U.S.

By Bob Owens

If you, like thousands of other Americans, have Googled to find out why we are in the middle of a nationwide ammunition shortage, you would have stumbled across this [1] 2007 blog entry.

In it, I corrected a poorly researched Associated Press story by Estes Thompson that claimed the military�s consumption of ammunition was responsible for police ammunition shortages here in the United States. Few things could have been further from the truth, but it seems rather apparent, in retrospect, that the goal of that AP article wasn�t to find the truth as much as it was to (falsely) lay blame for the police ammunition shortages at the feet of George W. Bush.

The real fact of the matter is that the military got the bulk of its small arms (pistol, rifle, machine gun) ammunition from one contracted ammunition plant, and that plant wasn�t even running near capacity. The military�s consumption clearly wasn�t to blame, and anecdotal evidence and statements from ammunition manufacturers strongly suggested that police departments themselves caused the 2007 ammunition shortage by purchasing far more ammunition than they had in the past.

But what is causing our current ammunition shortages here in 2009?

Much of the demand comes from continued high law enforcement demand, the same demand that led to shortages two years ago. Police agencies around the nation have become more militarized in recent years and two trends within this militarization have led to greater police ammunition demand.

An increase in the size and number of paramilitary police units

Once upon a time, highly trained, heavily armed police units with alphabet-soup acronyms such as SWAT, SRT, SRU, or ERT were generally found as part of large, metropolitan police departments. Today, law enforcement agencies of every size � including some [2] university police forces � have SWAT-type units armed with some combination of submachine guns, assault rifles, and sniper rifles to add to the traditional compliment of pistols and shotguns. To become proficient to the level expected of these units, each officer must fire thousands of rounds in training every year.

An increase in the use of �patrol carbines� in law enforcement

Some agencies prefer to call them �patrol carbines�; others refer to them as �tactical rifles.� But whatever you call them, rifles based upon the AR-15 are becoming increasingly common as a weapon deployed to police officers outside of SWAT units, for some very logical reasons. AR-type rifles extend the range at which patrol officers can engage armed criminals, and because rifles have more practical accuracy than pistols, they can potentially reduce the number of shots fired to neutralize a suspect. Paired with the right kind of ammunition, the .223 Remington/5.56mm caliber rifle also has surprisingly less over-penetration, theoretically reducing threats to civilians who might be downrange. Each of these weapons will also require officers carrying them to fire hundreds of rounds in training each year, and in a city that rotates rifles from one shift to another among their patrol units, this can necessitate tens of thousands of rounds of training ammunition.

Fears of draconian gun and ammunition restrictions

The 2008 elections that saw the Democratic Party extend their power in both houses of Congress and saw Barack Obama elected president made gun owners very nervous, and [3] with good reason.

We have a president that has favored gun bans and who desires to reinstate the horribly flawed 1994 assault weapons ban authored by our rather dim vice president. We also have radically anti-gun majority leaders in both the House of Representatives and Senate, and a Congress quite willing to pass massive, bloated laws without even bothering to read the contents. Fears of encroachment are certainly warranted.

Economic instability

As economies become unstable and people lose jobs, crime rates go up. It is an economic fact of life. Many people who are worried about an increase in crime arm themselves during economic downturns, leading to an increased demand for firearms and ammunition.

As a result of all of these factors, manufacturers of firearms and ammunition saw demand increase to unprecedented levels as civilians have made a run on the kind of firearms they suspect that gun control advocates presently in charge will try to outlaw.

This includes all handguns, all semi-automatic rifles (especially those targeted by the 1994 assault weapons bill that expired in 2004), and most semi-automatic shotguns.

Matt Reams of [4] Sierra Bullets noted that after the 2008 presidential election demand shot up 50%-100% for bullets used by handguns or rifles in military calibers, and says, �Law enforcement has seemed to increase quite a bit the last year or so. The individuals jumped in after the elections and pushed our orders over the top when we were already running in high gear.�

[5] Federal Premium/[6] ATK is the largest ammunition manufacturer in the world, running the Lake City Army Ammunition Plant for the U.S. military under contract; it also is a major supplier of law enforcement and civilians. In a statement, the company noted �unprecedented demand� for law enforcement ammunition. While other corporations are presently laying off workers and shutting down operations, ATK is in the middle of capital improvements to further increase production capability.

Rick Shoupe of [7] PMC Ammunition, which has a more civilian-focused market for his company�s products, reflected in his explanation:

Shortly before the presidential election the dam broke as far as U.S. gun and ammunition sales are concerned. I believe it is a reaction by the general public because of two main reasons. Number one, the political environment which results from the attitudes about gun control in the majority of Congress and the president himself. They are anti-gun. Number two, the current financial crisis in the U.S. has added to the frenzy, causing again the general public to want some sort of personal protection. Just in case they need it.

We are seeing a bubble in demand like I have never seen before and I have been in this business for 35 years. This demand is in addition to the military and law enforcement that also continues. PMC has expanded production to try and handle as much of the demand as it can before the demand starts to drop. Even so, the first scent of legislation being introduced to Congress will light another candle in the demand for these products. It will not end until the legislation is passed.

Individual shooters are stockpiling thousands of rounds of ammunition because of fears of future punitive taxation or outright bans of certain kinds of ammunition. Law enforcement agencies are also stockpiling ammunition to make sure they have enough on hand to meet training requirements. The shortage we are seeing is the result of both agencies and private citizens hoarding the most sought-after ammunition.

Thus, this shortage is the result of an accordion effect that has developed over the past few years.

Law enforcement agencies have been rapidly increasing their ammunition consumption because of how they are rearming, causing a permanent increase in demand. Just as ammunition manufacturers began to cope with that increase, a second run, based upon a downward-turning economy and rising fears of laws targeting gun and ammunition, dramatically expanded demand yet again.

Shortages of ammunition and firearms can be expected to continue for as long as it appears our overreaching federal government is a threat to our individual liberties, our economy continues to falter, and our police agencies keep militarizing.

It�s going to be a long ride.

Stock up while you can.

The shortage has not affected me much. I shoot a lot of ammo because I compete in High Power matches. I handload everything. In the past two months, I've been able to buy primers off the shelf, Cabela's had large quantities of both of the match bullets I use, as well as some hunting bullets I needed, but Norma .300 Weatherby cases were out of stock wherever I looked. I back ordered some from Cabela's and they arrived in a few days.

The shortage has affected mostof us in some way. I handload, too. I can't find .30-30, .300 Sav. 30-06, 45-70 brass. The bullets left are mostly 60 gr. 243., 170 gr. .41, and on, useful to only a few. I have enough primers to hunt for the rest of my life, but not for casual shooting.

I have found .38 special RN lead for $23. and higher, but don't want them that bad; partly because of price, and also because of the soft lead they swage. The reloaded jacketed are long gone. I didn't bother with loading handgun stuff because the cost of components was higher than the end cap shelf stuff, I don't compete, so don't need perfect loadings.

Right now I am watching for a medium rifle powder, heavy for caliber bullets in .24, 25, .30, and any .357.

The local, extended shortage of Federal F215 (Magnum Large Rifle) primers is currently killin' me.

I have no desire to rework my hot magnum loads, and I'm not willing to drop a different primer into my existing recipes... a PITA.

Shooters Pro Shop has 300 Savage brass, I just order 200 pieces.

I guess I am missing out on something. A 22LR and 500 22LR shells is more than enough. Maybe a 870 pump and a few boxes of shells, these "repel the zombie hoards" thinkers have been watching too much TV.

You can thank your buddy Bammy, Jeff. Just call and ask him to buy you a bunch of 215s.

Enjoy.

You had better get some quick. I mean quick. Jimmy everyone knows that a 22lr is a zombies favorite desert.

Put yourself in our shoes, we cant even order the chit up here in Alaska. The shelves are bare in most of our sporting goods stores (ammo and reloading supplies) and they dont know when they will be replenished. The managers just tell us that everyone wants whats available, and theres just not that much available. I just got back from the lower 48 and what I did was order the stuff I needed from Cabelas and Midway to my moms house in NC, and hand carried it back in checked luggage. I am good for a very long time, even for zombies!..grin

granted the whole economy has been turned upside down, I recon some folks are worried. I do hate eating squirrel, but rabbit is one of my favorites some people have been known to eat Robins which IIRC used to be a game bird.

Robin jambalaya is mighty tasty

Ringworm, TFF...

Instead of a a Y2k-esque infrastructure meltdown, we may be about to see a financial meltdown... which may have similar results. The Chinese have a curse that to the American ear sounds like a blessing: "May you live in interesting times".

As long as I have at least a few hundred of each type of primer around, I'm good. Not gonna hoard. But I'm down to my last box of those damn F215's...

I've had robin ka-bobs as a kid. With mushrooms, potatoes and green pepper, they were very tasty! And, they didn't fall off the skewer like sparrows did.

FWIW,

I've mentioned down in the reloading Forums that RCBS, Huntingtons.com, has been supplying me with any and all brass I need. They have a huge selection of many different makes of brass, like RWS, Norma, Lapua, as well as Rem and Win. I have found bullets no one else has, that I'm out of on their site.
The regular, usual suspects are out I know

thats funny...
my local dealer has a case or 2 of 215's that arestill in the old red box. cant sell 'em around here.

A little Greed is a powerful thing.
I'm getting old but i can remember the old timers at US steel's Fairfield works and down at Ensley's railyard talking about "It was for our boys in the military so we slept in shifts doing our little bit to help THEM out." you can't tell me that if the makers didn't WANT to raise production they couldn't.

Why would they? I know if I ran/owned an ammunition company I wouldn't spend a penny right now on increased output other than running all my aviailable equipment and men.

Just like companies that make AR related products. Run at full production but I sure wouldn't be investing in any machinery for a new line right now.

So what happens in 3 months when everyone who panicked in November finally decides at 10,000 rounds they're "good" for a while? Or better yet in 6 months when the economy is still in the [bleep] and people start unloading bulk quantites of packed away ammo.

Good way to throw money away for a business is to sink investments into short term gain that can come and go with the wind.

The only people who have a real shortage problem right now are the people who couldn't read the writing on the wall.

Even with the increases in the last month anyone here honestly believe ammunition will by and large get cheaper in the future?

Did anyone HONESTLY not see this coming? Even if Obama had lost was the other choice going to be "pro-gun"? Not likely.

I looked it as no matter who won it wasn't going to get better either way.

Yes, they can add capitol investment to raise production. But, is it a sound business decision to do so? Evidentally not, or they would have done it. If you can't get to "pay Back" in a timely manner, you don't do it.
They are running their companies, and are making the best business decisions they can make.

Well I don't watch TV - but do you mind if I shoot some, if not at zombies, but for practice and (gasp) just for fun?

Also there's at least one real zombie that's probably on its way, it's called inflation. Your money and mine is probably going to shrink in value, maybe to a great degree (google for Fed Total Money Supply, look at the last year in the graph). Investing now in something non-perishable that I know I will want in the future is just good business sense, to me.

Other possible zombie is ammunition tracing law that makes new ammo very expensive and reloading illegal.