Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire Beat the Penguin - Week #4

Thursday selection:

1. Miami

1) Miami @ Pitt - thursday
2) NC State @ Georgia Tech
3) Virginia Tech @ Boston College
4) Alabama @ Arkansas
5) Stanford @ Notre Dame
6) Nevada @ BYU
7) Fresno State @ Ole Miss
8) South Carolina @ Auburn
9) Oregon State @ Boise State
10) WVU @ LSU + total points tie breaker

AUB-SC is a tough one. I'll take SC for obvious reasons BUT I believe they are better then Clemson and Auburn has to be in pain after that cat fight.

Having difficulty with whether that Nevada team that played Saturday night is for real. Colin Kaepernick QB from NV moved the ball really well.

Yah VT is a difficult one . BC has not really played anyone and with 2 weeks off (BTW how did that happen?) they are almost an unknown like the Clemson (yes they football there) team was.

Fresno State and WVU are the games giving me fits.

With all due respect, you're high!

My apologies, Penguin. Work has had me traveling and traveling and traveling. 2-3 states a week.

1) Miami @ Pitt - thursday: Canes
2) NC State @ Georgia Tech: NCS
3) Virginia Tech @ Boston College: BC
4) Alabama @ Arkansas : Bama
5) Stanford @ Notre Dame: Stanford
6) Nevada @ BYU: BYU
7) Fresno State @ Ole Miss: Ole Miss
8) South Carolina @ Auburn: SC
9) Oregon State @ Boise State: BSU
10) WVU @ LSU + total points tie breaker: Tigahs (50)

Miami
Georgia tech
Virginia tech
Alabama
Stanford
nevada
ole miss
Auburn
BSU
LSU 64

Will is getting thrown off as Geno comes into his own and WVU has a formidable passing attack to coincide with Devine's blistering speed.

Miami

Georgia Tech

Va Tech

Alabama

Stanford

Nevada

Ole Miss

Auburn

Boise

Gonna think on the last one today...

Week #4 games list:

1) Miami @ Pitt - thursday
2) NC State @ Georgia Tech
3) Virginia Tech @ Boston College
4) Alabama @ Arkansas
5) Stanford @ Notre Dame
6) Nevada @ BYU
7) Fresno State @ Ole Miss
8) South Carolina @ Auburn
9) Oregon State @ Boise State
10) WVU @ LSU + 55 total points

1) Miami
2) Georgia Tech
3) Boston College
4) Alabama
5) Stanford
6) Nevada
7) Fresno State
8) South Carolina (That's right, that's my pick)
9) Boise State
10)LSU (45)

Lookin' for a solid 9-1 showing here! War Damn Eagle.

If it goes to +9 or over, I'm betting LARGE!!!


West Virginia +8.5 at LSU O/U 42
Recommendation: West Virginia
Saturday, 6 pm PT � ESPN2

This is the sixth straight year West Virginia has faced an SEC opponent. They beat Georgia in the 2005 Sugar Bowl, swept Mississippi State in 2006 and 2007 by a combined margin of 80-27, and split two games with Auburn over the past two years. They knocked off the Tigers at home 34-17 and lost at Auburn last year, 41-30. West Virginia actually dominated last year�s game, piling up 509 total yards, but a -5 turnover margin with two interceptions returned for touchdowns was too much to overcome.

This season, the Mountaineers are 3-0 with wins over Coastal Carolina, Marshall and Maryland. They were fortunate to win their only road game, beating arch-rival Marshall in overtime after trailing by two touchdowns. West Virginia played much better last week in its home win over Maryland, but did allow two long touchdown passes that narrowed the final margin to 31-17 after building a 28-0 lead. West Virginia�s defense had eight sacks in the game after not having any in its first two games.

This week the going will get much tougher for the Mountaineers as they travel to Baton Rouge for a night game. LSU improved to 3-0 with its win over Mississippi State last week at home, 29-7. It was the second straight SEC win for the Tigers, both coming against teams that struggle to throw the ball. In Week 1, LSU beat North Carolina, 30-24, but allowed the Tar Heels to throw the ball effectively after they had built a big lead. The LSU defense will be tested by West Virginia quarterback Geno Smith, who has thrown for more than 800 yards in his first three starts.

Offensively, LSU has been inconsistent thus far. They had five turnovers against the Tar Heels, scored 27 points at Vandy, and managed just 264 yards and five field goals last week against Mississippi State. Starting quarterback Jordan Jefferson has come under fire for his play, to the point that Les Miles has spoken about back-up Jarrett Lee getting some snaps. Jefferson has thrown for less than 100 yards in each of the last two games.

I have the suspicion that LSU is a little bit overrated right now with their top-15 ranking. They have been able to win their last two games against inferior offensive teams, but now face a team that can throw and pass the football. West Virginia has had plenty of success against SEC teams, so they won't be intimidated by playing at LSU at night. LSU has also been overvalued at home under Les Miles, compiling an 11-20 ATS record during his tenure at Tiger Stadium. At over a touchdown, I feel more than comfortable taking the points.

Opening Statement: I freakin suck at this! I will not brag until I finish above midpack. It's amazing that I feel there is little room for doubt when I make my picks, then after the Thursday game, I just pray that I stay at or above .500. The kick in the pants is that I know that I know more about CFB then 99% of everyone. I spend the majority of my free time following it year round. Then my picks go in, and a lady that makes her picks based on how the QB's butts look beats me. It just ain't right, I tell you!

1. Miami 31 Pitt 28 This is truly a flip a coin pick, judgement backed by Vegas. Miami has the talent edge, no doubt. Pitt is playing at home and has the coaching edge in Mustachdette. I miss on 90% of these freaking Thursday games so if I have any advise for the field, pick Pitt.

2. Georgina Tech 35 NC State 21-The wolfpack is looking for there best season in forever. I am not convinced yet, more so since they are on the road. I don't think they have much of a chance, but that is why they play the games.

3. Virgina Tech 26 Boston College 20-The Jokies are off to a rough start this year. I still think that they have as good a shot as anyone to win the ACC, but they really need to get there butts on track. The good news is that they haven't lost in conference yet. The bad news is that they lost to a FCS team, snicker/snort! I think that they have something very important to play for this year now, their pride. Beware a cornered football team.

4. Bama 42 Arkansas 31-I don't think that Ar-Kansas is all that. Bama is without a doubt the best looking team in CFB thus far into the year. Their offense is looking good, they can run the ball at will. The only question mark is their defensive play, but I think that they have looked fairly solid here, too. Bama will lose a game or two this year, it just won't be this one.

5. Notre Dame 35 Stanford 28-Freaking Kelly has cost me two picks this year, this one will probably be my third! The only reasons I am taking them in this game is that I think that he is a great coach and Notre Lame will be great again, and that I could gain one on most of the field with this pick (I think, I haven't looked at anyones picks yet). Come on Kelly and Co., give me reason to believe that you have some life in you!

6. BYU 24 Nevada 21-I want to take Nevada, but have to think that BYU with their back to a wall at home will give Nevada more than they can handle. I won't mind being wrong on this, as I would love for another WAC team to WACK Boise State later in the year.

7. Ole Miss 18 FresNO State 10-Four weeks ago, their would have been no one doubting the outcome of this game. Ole Miss, welcome to the Houston Nutt era. Houston Nutt, welcome to the unemployment era. You better win this one or you might not make it to the end of the season. He showed what kind of character he has by taking on Masoli after he was bumped from the Ducks team. So far, the Ducks are better for this while Ole Miss is suffering from it. I still beleive that the team with more talent will prevail most of the time, but won't be surprised if I am wrong.

8. Auburn 34 South Carolina 28-Dang, this one I truly have no clue in. I don't believe that South Carolina is the 12th best team in the country. I also don't believe that Auburn has the right man in the job in Chicass. I do know that this is an important game for both of them. I'll take the home team when I don't know.

9. Oregon State 35 Boise State 34-Boise will miss an extra point to lose this one, you heard it here first. It's not often that I take an almost 20 point underdog, but figure that I can take one from the field with this one. Oregon has a talent edge, despite what many think. Boise has a coaching edge and home-field advantage. What the hell am I thinking?????

10. LSU 35 WVU 17-Total Points 52-How in the hell is WVU ranked 22nd? They have not looked good this season. Marshall took them into OT??? LSU on the other hand will probably make this one more of a game than it should be due to poor decisions from coaches on down through the players.

Miles knows his bunns are on the line. Expect LSU to come out swinging in this one.

They have been trying to find their way so far this season but are making progress. They handily beat a Ms. State team that played well against Auburn only to let mistakes take them out of the game.

Ridley is finally running the ball up to expectations and LSU's defense is improving each week.

This is a must win for them and they know it. If Les loses this game the posse will start to form in Baton Rouge. I'd be careful about laying a ton of money on this one.

You don't know WVU. No way LSU beats them by 9 or more.

Good luck.

Much of it is,right??

Bad luck in my case LOL.

Hope it doesn't rub off on my hunting this year!

That is much too astute to have been written by you. Where did you get it, your betting service? You better not take the bet unless it gets to LSU- -18 (or more). This ain't 6 years ago WVU team. Almost getting beat by Marshall (I don't give a turd if the are your rivals or not, THEY SUCK!) would cause me to think twice about making any sort of bet on this game. You have no clue what this WVU team is capable of. BTW, LSU would beat Marshall by 40-45 points.

I think Geno Smith is going to be a very good QB. Matter of fact he has shown flashes of brilliance... when he isn't running for his life or having defensive ends beat him to the pocket. I think Devine is a very good running back that is neutralized for the most part by Mullen's offensive game plans.

I may have trouble picking teams I've never watched, but I know the ones I follow and am rarely wrong on them.

WVU's game plans, IMvHO, fail against good, solid defenses because they don't put a defense in conflict. (Pardon me while I assume my old outside LB personna) They routinely run bubble screens and halfback screens to stretch a defense laterally, all well and good. But then they will run into the teeth of that adjusted defense by running outside the tackle. How many of Devine's truly long runs start one way only to be completely plugged up then he makes a hard cutback in the opposite direction and break a big one? The majority of the time I would say.

What most rational OCs do is try to stretch a defense, place it in a position of adjusting into weakness. You see Wisconsin run the middle and then play action off of it. You see tOSU run downhill and then roll Pryor out to get the edge. You see Boise throw deep and then counter with surprising physicality up the middle. I could go on and on. But in the end good offenses stretch a defense, they make them cover the field.

WVU does not. They play edge football but rarely go deep. They have a great power back in Clarke who would start for 95% of BCS conference teams used only in short yardage situations. They have not in 2 years shown the ability to protect a QB against a good defensive line/linebacking corp. IOW we have fallen into the trap, at least so far, of trying to 'out athlete' other teams. That is all well and good when you have better atheletes, but although we very good skill position guys I can assure you LSU has just as many and probably more... plus they always have skilled defensive lines that are disruptive and dangerous. We counter with a truly mediocre offensive line.

Now Mullen might surprise me. I have seen him call a handful of very good football games in the last couple years. But most of the time he is a stubborn, obstinate man who comes in with a predictable game plan and it rarely has anything to do with power and strategy. Again, IMvHO, he comes out and tries to overpower LSU with superior athletes and I don't think that is a very bright thing to try when you probably don't have an athletic advantage.

I hope I am wrong. Sorry for the rant, but I detest Mullen and Stewart and wish these imbeciles would go somewhere else and try these run-n-gun bullshit tactics.

Will