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More reasons why the polls are wrong:

42.5% and 58% of the Samples for the Washington Post and NBC News GOP Primary Polls Are Composed of Independents, Respectively
Posted on January 20 2011 - 4:09 PM - Posted by: Ian Lazarus

The reality is that Republicans will likely comprise around 70-75% of the Republican primary electorate in every GOP primary state on average, with certain exceptions for states like New Hampshire. Nevertheless, the Washington Post and NBC News are putting out GOP primary polling that dramatically overestimates the percentage of independents that will vote in GOP primaries.
The Washington Post�s GOP primary poll is composed of all Republicans and Republican-leaning independents. NBC�s GOP primary poll is composed of not only all Republicans and Republican-leaning independents but all strict independents. Strict independents are independents that do not lean towards either the Republican or Democrat Party. Very rarely will these type of independents vote in either party�s primary. The types of independents that will vote in a GOP primary are independents that lean towards the Republican Party but it�s still a stretch to believe that GOP-leaning independents will comprise as large a percentage of the GOP primary electorate as the percentage claimed by the Washington Post and NBC News.

The Washington Post doesn�t tell you that Republican-leaning independents compose 42.5% of its GOP primary sample. NBC News doesn�t tell you that Republican-leaning independents and strict independents compose 58% of its GOP primary sample. Strict independents comprise 36% of its primary sample. The NBC News� pollster actually believes that a sample that shows independents outnumbering Republicans by 16% is representative of the actual Republican primary electorate.

It�s a fair assumption to believe that Governor Palin is performing better among Republicans than she is among Republican-leaning independents. It�s also reasonable to believe that Palin is performing better among Republicans and Republican-leaning independents than she is among strict independents.
I suspect her five-point deficit to Romney in the NBC News poll and the two-point deficit to Huckabee in the Washington Post poll would be smaller or gone completely had either pollster included fewer independents in their samples. Independents are only expected to comprise 33-35% of the GOP primary electorate even in New Hampshire.

To conclude, the Washington Post got it half-right by only polling for Republicans and Republican-independents but it still erred by including all Republican-leaning independents. NBC News didn�t get anything right as it included all strict independents, the type of independents that rarely vote in primaries, in addition to including all Republican-leaning independents in its sample. It�s simply unreasonable to believe that on average independents will comprise over 40% (or almost 60% in the case of NBC News) of the GOP primary electorate, let alone in states with a lot of independents like New Hampshire.

As Sarah�s measurements are 35 and 1/4 - 30 and 1/2 - 40 and �, then her bra size would be 36C.
I did not mention her shoe size, but it is 7.5.
I have never noticed any tattoos or piercing.

This is important stuff.

Just now on FOX, Megyn Kelly and Ichabod Colmes were discussing Michelle Obama�s dresses. They are reportedly, size 8.

However, I checked with my staff and was informed that Palin is closer to a size 6 than she is a 4 and no way would Michele fit into anything smaller than a 12.

It is amazing the nonsense some people will gobble up---including that when Palin answered Charlie Gibson on the Bush Doctrine she was actually displaying a nuanced understanding of it that would challenge the most sophiticated acolyte of US foreign policy. Pure bunk, because if that were the case she would have immediately defended her gaffe on that basis (i.e., there are four distinct and highly nuanced strands of the Bush doctrine and I was trying to clarify which one Gibson was asking about). She did no such thing on the show or thereafter when the critics started in on her ignorance. The notion that she actually had a knowledge of the Bush Doctrine that would practically challenge a political science professor is laughable. We also find massive confirmation of her lack of knowledge re how the world really works from insiders of the McCain campaign. Debate handlers and persons brought into "prep" her were universally dismayed at her appalling ignorance.

Of course its not Sarah's fault that McCain's supposedly fine judgment eluded him when it came time to choose a running mate, but that is no reason to bury our heads in the sand and think she is capable of governing this country when she couldn't even govern her own state (she quit mid-term, mind you because basically it was too hard---she couldn't stand the heat so she vacated the kitchen).

Important stuff indeed!

On a more serious note, I would more interested to learn if she has released college transcripts and how well she did in school, looks aren't everything.

stick a fork in her

�In an interview on CNN�s �Piers Morgan Tonight,� Giuliani, who dropped out of the 2008 Republican presidential primary, said running against Palin for the 2012 GOP nomination would show him as a moderate Republican.

�The more Republicans in which I can show a contrast, probably the better chance, the better chance that I have,� Giuliani told CNN�s Piers Morgan in an interview set to air at 9 pm. ET Monday. Portions of the interview will air Friday (tonight) on CNN�s �John King, USA� at 7 p.m. ET.

But if he does run, Giuliani says he would concentrate on winning Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina, sites of the first presidential nominating contests. In 2008 Giuliani focused his resources in Florida, a strategy that that led to the demise of his run after he finished third in the state�s primary.�

�Mike Huckabee and his top advisers insist that he's thinking seriously about running for president, but he's doing little to put together the sort of organization needed to mount a campaign. The latest evidence: Chip Saltsman, his campaign manager in 2008 and one of his closest confidantes, has accepted a job as Chief of Staff for freshman Rep. Chuck Fleischmann (R-Tenn.).

In an interview, Saltsman said his taking the job should not be read as an indication about Huckabee's intentions.�



Math problem.
Lets see now, if Huck stays out and you add his poll numbers of about 20% to Palin�s of about 20% because the polls always show that one of them is always the second choice to the other if the person being polled goes for either Huck or Palin.

And if Rudy gets in and you subtract his numbers from Romney�s�

The question is; how short will the GOP primary be?

a brilliant and erudite analysis.

I repeat:
Fact is that Charles Krauthammer has said that there are four Bush Doctrines and Sarah Palin answered with the correct one.
You calling Krauthammer�s analysis �nonsense� is laughable.
And by the way, Palin has defended (several times) her answer to Gibson�s condescending questions including that particular one.
So you are wrong again. Check the record and prove me wrong.

Quoting the McCain Staff Stupids who are trying to cover up their own screw ups is a long ways from �massive confirmation.�
The 37 million people that tuned in her record VP speech and the way Sarah did as well in her VP debate after McCain wisely pulled her out of that zoo his staff had her in would more �massive.�
So you are wrong again. Check the record and prove me wrong.

McCain choose Sarah Palin for his running mate because of her record as a reformer in Alaska and that has been verified on so many different levels that to deny her success in governing Alaska is what is truly laughable.
As has been her sensible and valid reasons for resigning as Governor. And posted many times here on the �Fire.
So you are wrong again. Check the record and prove me wrong.

Your analysis is illogical and unsupported by any real world facts.
Anyone looking at the Palin record with honest eyes would agree with McCain��not you.
Check the record and prove me wrong.

And you still have no answer my question to why Sarah is so successful if she is as bad as you say.
As you won�t answer the core question, I have new questions:

Did you ever get straighten out about the �I can see Alaska from my house� Palin quote that she never said, that you said she said, and did you ever see any of the pictures of Alaskans standing in Alaska looking at Russia?

Are you still calling folks who live in trailers: �Trash�????

Palin in a bikini? Lets see mid 40s and 5 kids, this place needs another sniper thread.
pak

OK. You're a Democrat defending your vote 2 years ago.

Thanks for clearing up that.

you want 4 more years of obama? vote for palin. she needs to go far, far away.

Another "D".

I didn't want the first four arduous years of Barry, but some of you fellers seem OK with it.

Is this what's known as "reverse campaigning?"

Problem is the Republicans will not have the "no experience" spear to chuck at the Halfblack. Now he is the experienced and popular President who will not be running against any past President.

That is why it is deadly serious to send up a man who maybe able to beat him, not some far right wackjob or giddygal who would lose in a tsunamic landslide. To do so would be to set back this recent, yet still nascent, rise of Conservatism to pre Reagan times.

You know guys, she has not even said she is going to run. She is most likely smart enough to not. She knows where she can be the biggest thorn in the side of the liberals. Not in the white house. Weather any want to admit it she had a ton of pull this last election and who did more than her? Dis her all you want, she is smart, a very good speaker, down to earth, and is more of an American than any liberal in the house, senate and most certainly the oval office. Lets not cut the throat of our own soldiers. We need all we can get and still might loose this nation the way it was supposed to be. Honestly, I like her kind. She's spunky, but simple, quick with an answer, to the point ( and they cut deep) , a gun owner, pro life, and honestly she is very easy to look at.

The best chance to reelect Obama is to run Romney or some other RINO retread that loses the Tea Party vote.

I'm not at all sure Romney would lose the TP vote.

I am still predicting him as the GOP nominee.

I won't vote Romney, but I will vote Palin.

Pmc

I can't get used to Romney. He had state health care like Obama, I also can't get used to a guy who thinks satan and Jesus were brothers. If he can't see through that, then his b.s. detector is lacking.