Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Ask The Gunwriters New rifle cartridges - which will live, which will die?

Basically , those cartridges that actually fill a need are the ones that survive, or in some cases ,eventually get resurected.
Although I presently have none of them,I suspect that the short magnums sooner or later will fill that category.
What becomes redundent is having the same nitch filled by two or more cartridges i.e. .270 and 7mm on the same case,for all intents and purposes (except those of the manufacturers) they are the same.
Even if it takes many years for the belted mag. rifles to wear out,get lost , or whatever,I believe that eventually the short action , non belted versions will supercede them.Since I already have the rifles , the dies ,the cases I will continue to use them....but if I were starting out today,I'd outfit myself with the newer versions....essentially the same performance with shorter , lighter ,handier rifles.
I also think that some of the big bore revolver cartridges are too close to each other in performance,and those ranks will thin out too.There is nothing practical that the .50 S&W can do that three or four others can't do just as well if not better.

As much as I like my .480 Ruger it will be dead, for practical purposes, in 5 years or less. The .500 S&W, and limp wristed factory ammo before that, will be it's sure demise...not that it could better the .454 anyway...virtually the same cartridge with heavy bullets when handloaded to specification. The 500 and 460 S&W's true potential, in other words what they can do that other revolver rounds can't, can only be utilized in a single shot pistol...so it's pretty much a moot point that they are revolver rounds...but I bet they'll come out on top anyway...marketing, marketing, marketing. If you need more than a .44 Magnum, with good loads, there really isn't any handgun that is too powerful.

I find it interesting that many of us here base a cartridges success on how many handload for it...the small number of shooters that do their own loading is a pretty small percentage but it may be what actually makes a good cartridge hang on.

I'd like to see Winchester do the right thing and reintroduce the .358 to compete with the new Federal cartridge. I'm not a big Remington fan, nor detractor, but I believe they did the right thing by bringing back the .350 RemMag (and 6.5 also) and supporting the people who purchased their rifles with factory ammunition for some time to come...rather than bringing out a new cartridge that would have failed faster than the originals. Would a new .35 SAUM or 6.5 SAUM actually do anything in the hands of 99% of the worlds shooters that the originals couldn't? You can talk ballistic charts all you want, but I doubt there are more than a handful of shooters in the world that could hold the difference under field conditions with sporting rifles and optics.

When Norma starts making brass for a caliber, it'll probably be around a while.

The 7WSM and 7 SAUM will fade away, 7Mag will stay, The WSSMs will fade away. 270 and 300 WSM will stay. 358Win, 35 Whelan, 7x57, 280, 257roberts will linger on the sidelines. 41Mag will stay on the sidelines and continue its cult status, 480, 460, 500, et al will fade away. Anything based on 308 will remain moderately popular. RUMs and SAUMs will all fade away (I just bought a 7SAUM).
I believe that more efficient powders and better bullets will be introduced in the future resulting is more efficient and effective cartridges to be introduced. A 29 cal has yet to be introduced.

Oh, but it has!
Our own MD has designed the whole cartridge! It' simply incredible. If I remember right, the bullets have such a high BC, it actually gains speed! <img src="/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" />
I think Redding makes dies for it! <img src="/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" />

I don't thing the short and fats are going to make it. They just don't fill a real need. I hate it but the Ultras probably won't make it either. Maybe the .300 and 7mm which are tremendous catridges but I doubt it.

I do think the WSM's will stay,The Ultra's and the WSSM's may not............Essex

CARTRIDGES THAT WILL MAKE IT, AND MAYBE EVEN BE SUPERSTARS:
500S&W
17HMR
7mm-08
454 Casull

CARTRIDGES THAT WILL LINGER JUST ENUFF TO HOLD ON:
480 Marlin (think 35remington)
280
460 S&W (too early to tell)
280Remington (has been hanging in there under several names for decades)
325 Short mag (8mm syndrome)
All short-mags (flashes in the pan)
6.8SPC (nneds to be chambered in light guns like the CZ527 to see full potential, otherwise, it is a niche at best, and may be destined for the last list)

CARTRIDGES THAT WILL FAIL:
260 remington (deserves better)
7MM STW (too niche, like 8MM mag)
6mm (deserves better)
358 Win (deserves better)

NOTE that most fall under the draded syndrome held by Americans for inexplicable reasons - the 6.5/8mm syndrome, in which any cartridge that has this moniker, no matter how great (i'e: 8x57/8mmRem mag/6.5x55/264 Win mag) will at best achieve meiocre success in America, the last real free sporting arms market

It didn't work for the 308 Norma... <img src="/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" />

SS

1979, Ed Matunas on the 6.5 Swedish, "...useful on game up to 500 lbs. and at ranges not exceeding 200 yards...it easily fits into the dead cartridge category. Ammunition is now obsolete in this country." And , on the350 Remington mag, "...it is now offered in only one bullet weight...the cartridge is unfotunately dying, perhaps because it was never chambered in a popular firearm."

What Yogi said!

I think the WSSMs will be dead soon, same with the Ultramags-just to much for the average guy, same with the 500SW.

I think the standards like the 30-06, 270 are here for the long haul and I think the 300 WSM will also be on the list, not to sure about the 7mm WSM and 270 WSM.

The one I am most concerned about and with the most promise is the 260 Remington. It seems like its hard to find and even in the Remington lineup it is hard to find, no more ADLs, SPS or BDLs chambered for it, only the more expensive mountain rifles or the M7.

Agree for the most part except for the 300 RUM---BR guys are starting to use it for the HV Class. May end up like a 6.5 284 with only Lapua making brass in 20 years. BTW my 300 RUM hunting rifle (not a factory gun) shoots .3 and it will do it everytime.

I'm thinking the 270 WSM and 300 WSM will be here for the long haul.

The 325 WSM and 338-08 are stillborn.

Not sure how the others will fare.

I'd like the see the 480 live, but agree that it is too specialized to survive. Not powerful enough for bragging rights, and not enough folks need more power than a 44 mag for it to survive. But I have enough bullet molds and brass to keep mine fed.

I think when they're ready, Federal is going to market the hell out of their new baby. And if they can get somebody domestic to make reasonably priced rifles for it, and they will of course, I think it may do well. I like the idea of a junior 338. But I'm positive the WSSM's , 460 S&W, and SAUM's will be a memory in 10 yrs. I hope the 325 gets a good run too.

I predict...

All of the WSM's and WSSM's will fade but the 300WSM.

I believe all the Remington SAUM's will fade away.

all i know is that short mags are so popular here in the b'ham area, that long action bolts guns are all over the used gun racks, even in the middle of deer season.

The other part of this equation is the guns. Some cartridges stick around because people like the firearms so chambered.
This was part of the success of the .454...those excellent Casull revolvers won a lot of fans.

Even before the WSM craze, here in the northeast it was more difficult to find a lightweight used rifle in 7-08 or 308...people hung onto these nice little guns and have been more willing to part with their big magnums.

Isn't Federal loading the B-29?

My guess:

30-06, 308, 223, 45 ACP and 9MMwill remain dominant as Mil Spec rounds always do.

6.8mm SPC will dominate if adopted by Uncle Sam, if not, then it dies.

Game cartridges-270, 30/30, 243, 300 Win, 338 Win, and 375 H&H mags will live on.

12 ga and 22lr will live forever as the 2 most universally useful rounds in existence.

Everything else, is a crapshoot.

BMT

Very well put. The 30-30 probably would have gone away long ago if it wasn't for those handy and traditional lever actions.