Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Ask The Gunwriters New rifle cartridges - which will live, which will die?

I have to agree with Steve. I did "start out" myself about two years ago. That is after a 5 year respite from hunting, shooting and handloading after having actively pursued it for over 20 years. The first rifle I bought was a .270. Not a winchester, but a winchester short magnum. I love it, short action, accurate and can be downloaded to equal a 7mm-08 or loaded up to approach a 7mm Rem mag, but without the annoying belt on the case. I believe the .270WSM and .300WSM will survive and thrive in the future. They are too good not to. I am not so sure about the WSSM's though. Not sure they offer the versatility of their bigger brothers, and the rumors of feeding problems and excessive barrel wear are hurting their initial sales. I also don't think the Remington SAUM's will make it. Already, Remington has reintroduced their .270WSM ammo, and is also offering the .270WSM and .300 WSM in their bulk seller, the SPS. While their own SAUM cartridges are not available. (Sadly, the .260 Remington is also absent from that reasonably priced, nice featured product) Of course the staples will continue into the foreseeable future:
Guaranteed:
.223 Rem
.22-250
.243
.25-06
.270 Win
7mm Rem. Mag
.308
.30-06
Almost guaranteed (IMO)
7mm-08 (should be more popular)
.270WSM
.300WSM
.300 Win Mag (unless supplanted by .300WSM)
.338 Win mag (probably more than most need)
Some that should survive, but may not:
6.5x55 Swedish Mauser
.260 Remington
7x57 Mauser
.280 Remington

and those that (IMO) won't:
Ultra Mags
WSSM's
6mm Rem (a shame)
.257 Roberts (should have been killed by .260 Rem)
and others that are already so far gone they don't even bear mention.

Looking at the "sales popularity" that RCBS puts out for reloading die sales, you have to go down to #12 to find a new cartridge. That would be the .300 WSM. #17 is .270 WSM. #20 is .300 RUM.

#22 is .500 S&W. #30 is 7 mm WSM. #36 is .300 Rem SUM. #44 is 7 mm RSUM.

I watch what the ammo makers are discontinuing: that is the real death knell.

jim

More CUSTOM (read expensive) rifles are made in
280 Remington than any other chambering.

The 7mm-08 will keep on growing in popularity for
a long, long time. Just like Layne Simpson prdicted 20
years ago in GUN DIGEST.

All the short magnums are a pop craze and will eventually taper off into oblivioin! (hopefully-I don't like them!)

All the 30-06 based standards will last forever!

Prediction: The 338 Federal (338-08) will do fine with
each year the baby boomers get older!
This will be a result of all our new high tech
bullets!

There will be a 270 Federal. (270-308)
This should have been done a long time
ago and instead of the 260 Remington!
This should have been Winchesters'
answer to the 7mm-08 Remington the
year after Remington made it legit.
** The 284 never should have existed!**


The 7X57 and the 6.5X55 will always be "classics", and
thus have immortality. <img src="/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/smile.gif" alt="" /> Maybe not popularity, but
none the less, immortality!

The new-fangled cartridges that will quickly die are the .30-30 Winchester, and that .375 what'sitsname from Holland & Holland. Talk about a useless caliber!

Oh, you said the last 10 years, not 110....

The .300 WSM is already a "standard" caliber. The .270 WSM will hang on too, but not as well. The .300 WSM filled the gap between the .30-06 and the smaller belted .300 magnums.

The .17 HMR filled a definite gap. It will be around a long, long time, despite the fate of the 5mm Remington Magnum, which I believe failed because of a lack of good bullets, plus ballistics that didn't really beat the .22 Magnum by all that much. The plastic-tips (plus Lil Gun powder) made the .17 HMR a success.

The .17 Mach II will die a quick death. It didn't fill a gap.

The WSSM's don't appear to be setting the world on fire. Or even getting it to smolder. The .223 might have with a 1-9 twist and heavier bullets, but the .243 and .25 reinvented the 6mm Remington and .257 Roberts.

The .325 is selling better than many suspected it would, though it really doesn't do anything more than the .300 WSM. I have heard it's selling far better in the Southeast than anywhere else--and it's not selling much out here in the West. I believe it will be a .35 Whelen: Everybody who wants a .325 will buy one in the first couple of years, then it will start fading--while the .300 WSM keeps truckin' on.

The .280 did have a brief period of being the in-cartridge, thansk to a jolt of publicity from Remington and some writers. Then it started lagging again. Its problem? It does nothing the .270 won't do just as well. (By that I mean killing game. Yeah, you can load 175's in the .280, and get a smidgen more velocity than the .270 with 140-150 grain bullets. But that doesn't make the .280 capable of anything more than the .270.)

The .376 Steyr may be a great round. I'll never know, because I own a couple of .375 H&H's, itself a round of limited usefulness for most hunters. Just putting near-.375 ballistics into a "standard-length" chamber doesn't seem all that magical. It was done a century ago with the 9.3x62--which these days seems to be doing a bit better than the .376 Steyr. You can promote a round all you want, but if it doesn't do much of anything that well-established cartridges already do, then it's doomed.

Of course, if you can get near .375 ballistics in a truly short action, then that might make it. Call it the 9.3 B-S, for instance. Sure to be a nationwide hit!

MD

JB-I hear tell that down town there is lines at Wallmart and McDonalds and also the smiths are overrun with requests for the 9.3 BS....grins

Mark D

I guess things may well vary in different parts of the world.

In Oz, WSSMs are being discounted to just about nothing, as they are otherwise unsaleable. Stillborn.

The WSM, particularly the 300 seems to have a following.

The HMR will survive. The mach 2 won't.

The 204 wil end up as a niche product. For handloaders, and those who replace the barrels on new rifles (i.e. me).

Mule Deer,

Thoughts on the Ultra Mags? Specifically the popularily of the .338 Ultra as compared to the .340 Weatherby. Both are special purpose for sure, but do you see the .338 Ultra filling enough of a niche to remain viable?

When I am with my friends who shoot muzzleloaders, the opinion is generally expressed that all cartridge weapons (some of the fellows sneeringly call them "suppository guns") will eventually die out. The feeling is that everything except muzzloaders just are a passing fad. There is a general distrust expressed about percussion cap ignition too, since you can't shoot if you're out of caps but you can shoot a flintlock as long as the world is still made out of rocks.

Mark--

Hey, Midway is selling headstamped 9.3 BS brass, so watch out....

MD

I still haven't collected all the vintage calibers I still crave.

badboyz--

The Ultra Mags are good cartridges, but they have two main problems: Recoil is too much for the average shooter, and standard actions cannot easily be converted to them.

This is not the case, for instance, with the belted rounds such as the .300 and .340 Weatherby, which basically do the same things as the .300 and .338 RUM's without the magazine problems.

I see the RUM's as the latest generation's lesson that more speed means more recoil. It happens once every 20 years or so--and is the reason why some of the short-fat "magnums" will always be more popular than the long-fats.

If ammo supply becomes a problem with the .338 RUM it may fade away. Such will not be the case with the .340 and .338-.378 Weatherbys, because brass will always be available. The boys who want the ultimate .338 will probably go for the .338-378 anyway.

MD

I think that aside from the "biggest boomers" mentioned above, just about all "standard" and "long" action cartridges are going to have an uphill climb.

What the WSM's have done is make the "short" action the de-facto desirability standard. You can all the power, accuracy, and performance you want from a "short" action length. The 308win was close, but it was always "second best" to the '06.

No more. You can now beat the 100 year standard, the '06, handily from a short action. The change may be slow, but inexorably, the 7-08 will replace the 270, the 300 WSM the 300 Win AND the '06 (Sacrilege, I know). The 7mag will slide.

The 350 Rem might just pick up a bit, if someone chambers it in a decent rifle. JMO, Dutch.

I wanted a slight step up from the ole' 06. The traditionalst has been looking for an afordable .300 H&H for years. The .300WSM is my solution and I think it's here to stay. It's the Ultras and supershorts I question.........Essex

Midway DOES have the brass, but they hosed up your name! <img src="/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/smile.gif" alt="" />

I think of all the ones introduced this century, the .300 WSM will definitely be the most successful by a goodly lead. It does answer a "need", even if it is sort of a made up need.

I don't have one, probably won't get one, but the 7mm SAUM seems to be the best balanced new 7mm, that is if you want more oomph than a 7mm-08. It fits in a short action and won't kick you too bad in a light weight rifle like the .300 WSM. This is exactly what Remington and Winchester were going for decades ago with the 6.5 RM and the .284 Winchester - .270/.280 long action performance or better in a short action rifle. I'd really like to see this one succeed as it is right there in the middle of truly useful hunting rounds.

The RUM's just plain kick and blast too dang much to be liked by anybody except someone who just needs that power and is skilled enough to use it. Like the post above, either you buy one and sell it after half a box or you love it because it whomps just like you knew it would. That .338 RUM could be a great world class "all 'rounder" except the .338 WM has such a head start.

Agree about the 17 HMR, a fine, quiet and very accurate small game and varmint round, it will fulfill it's role even better in the years to come as suburbia takes over more and more countryside.

"The new-fangled cartridges that will quickly die are the .30-30 Winchester, and that .375 what'sitsname from Holland & Holland. Talk about a useless caliber!

Oh, you said the last 10 years, not 110...."

Mule Deer, that's funny. I can't believe you forgot to mention various other anemic obsolete losers such as the .38 special , .45/70, and the .22 LR. But then you may not have much credibility as a progressive...I heard tell of you hunting deer with a .257 Roberts...non-improved!

I called RCBS yesterday and their latest record are for '04.

They show the 300 WSM at #5 now, with the 270 WSM at
#14

[quote But then you may not have much credibility as a progressive...I heard tell of you hunting deer with a .257 Roberts...non-improved! [/quote]

Shhhhhhh!!!!You're gonna ruin his reputation. <img src="/ubbthreads/images/graemlins/grin.gif" alt="" />


Is reload sales really a good sign of a new cartridge popularity ?It seems to me that alot of the sales would be due to the fact that they are new and no one has the stuff allready,like they would for say a 308 or a 30-06.

SU35, How about some of the other new calibers? Have they moved up or down on the list?

... and the .45-70 shall endureth forever and ever.