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This is really sad. If Obama wins I hope they suffer the worst!



Obama up 4 percentage points over Romney in Ohio

A new CNN/ORC poll of likely voters shows President Barack Obama leading Republican nominee Mitt Romney in the crucial state of Ohio with less than two weeks before Election Day:


According to a CNN/ORC International survey released Friday, President Barack Obama holds a four point advantage over Republican nominee Mitt Romney in the contest for Ohio's much-fought-over 18 electoral votes.

Fifty-percent of likely voters questioned in the poll say they are backing the president, with 46% supporting the former Massachusetts governor. Obama's four-point advantage is within the survey's sampling error.

The CNN poll was conducted by ORC International from October 23-25, with 1,009 Ohio adults, including 896 registered voters and 741 likely voters, questioned by telephone. The survey's overall sampling error is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

Before the poll's release, Romney's Ohio state chairman, Sen. Rob Portman, had stopped just short of saying Ohio would be a must-win for the Republican challenger.

"If we don't win Ohio, it's tough to see us winning the election nationally," Portman had told NBC News.

CNN Poll dude.

Exactly. Anything with the words CNN and International should be heavily discounted.

I'm so sick of hearing about these polls...

Everyone has their own version.

Ohio is no more important than the other 49 states,just the media stirring up schit.

Yep, They know the election could come own to Ohio and all the news coming out of there lately has been bad for OBammie and the socialists.

I'm sure they are just trying to shore up libtard morale.

Also,it keeps Benghazi,gas prices,jobs,out of the news.

This is true. Back in 2000 everyone was talking how Florida was the key state with their hanging chads and such. But if Algore takes his home state, Florida wouldn't have mattered. The pompous ass couldn't even convince the folks of Tennessee to vote for him.

All states are important.

I don't know about that. Ohio is almost a must win for both campaigns(a tad bit more so for Romney than Obama). So it boils down to whoever wins Ohio, wins the election(more or less). I don't know how it will turn out there either. On one hand you have dissatisfaction with Obama, but the republicans pissed a lot of people off with anti-union law. The people organized and overturned the law and are very dissatisfied with the governor. Then republicans and the governor passed some election law and got everyone pissed off again, it was supposed up for referendum during the election, but they wised up and repealed it do keep it off the ballot this year. That is what is keeping Ohio so close.

One of the liberal consultants on Fox conceded that Romney may well win popular vote by slim margin, but that Ohio would fall to Obama. There are about 150 Democratic supporter locations in Ohio. Romney chose a different approach which may or may not have mattered. While Romney could win even if losing Ohio the path to 270 become very difficult. It may well be the day after the election before a winner can be chosen.

Ohio is just one state and both candidates need 270 EC to win.

How many more election cycles will it take for the RNC to put Ohio in the same column as Wa. and Or.and quit competing there?If they can't devise a campaign strategy that doesn't require winning one particular state with 18 EC votes,then they are NOT a Nat'l party.

State's without Right To Work laws can NEVER be counted on to be anything other than reliable Dems.

Union members - by definition - have traded their individual rights for a percieved economic security.Apparently,once you've drank the Union Kool-aid,the Dem Kool-aid is easy to swallow.

the GOP is the truly national party....the county map shows that pretty dramatically.....the democrats are the party of the urban enclaves of parasites, government workers, aliens, gays and single white women. even California has the majority of its counties by far with GOP majorities.....

if Ohio is polling basically even...as it is....that means Romney will win it. strong Bradley factor in Yankee state, probably worth five points.

and, keep in mind, the average response rate for these polls is less than 10%......what kind of voter do you think is most likely to waste their time with a pollster?

Analysis of the Ohio poll. No need to panic.

http://battlegroundwatch.com/2012/1...al-poll-with-obama-leading-by-4-in-ohio/

thanks for the link, Rufus, that's a cool site

That's a statistic I was unaware of.

Very interesting. Hmmmmmmm ???

I don't participate in polls ... ever.

Of course Ohio is no more important than the others. It's just that the others are relatively known how they will turn out. Of those we don't have a great feel for how they will turn out, Ohio is central to the outcome of this election.

Obama's fuzzy Ohio early vote math

The author writes that 220,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio compared with 2008. | Anne Schroeder Mullins

By ADRIAN GRAY | 10/26/12 3:18 PM EDT

At this point in an election cycle, many campaign staffers are busy fighting the press on what they call �process stories.� The candidates and their staffs want to talk about their plans and policies while reporters covering them find their audiences demand a play-by-play of the horse race.

The result is constant overstuffing of campaign metrics and polling that only serve to muddy the waters for most political observers. In a close race, such as we have today, there is often plenty of data for both sides to use to their favor. One poll says this, another says that.

This makes it especially surprising to see the piece put out by President Barack Obama�s field director this week on early voting in Ohio. When things are ugly for a campaign, these types of memos can start flying. It is troubling for the president�s supporters that they could not come up with at least a handful of positive data points in Ohio. I worked as director of strategy at the Republican National Committee during the difficult 2006 election cycle � I know firsthand how hard it it is to come up with positive data in a negative cycle.

There are normally three signs you know a campaign metrics memo is purely spin.

1. Anecdotes: �We have seen groups as big as 100 voters going to vote in Athens, Ohio.� Only 604 democrats have voted in person in the entire county and no more than 40 in a single precinct (that would be Athens 3-5, for those scoring at home).

2. Unverifiable Data: �Precincts that Obama won in 2008 are voting early at a higher rate�: This is unverifiable and misleading because there is no such thing as an �Obama precinct.� Every ten years, the entire country rebalances its voting districts based on a constitutionally mandated census. In 2010, this process redrew the lines of reportable voting areas that were used in 2008. So this year, we have entirely new precincts, thereby making it impossible to validate their claim.

3. Cherry-picking random sub-poll data: �Time poll shows the President up 60-30� among early voters. That sub-sample was asked of 145 people and was one of many of similar ilk (with a huge variation in results). Their central data argument is that 43 more people told Time�s pollster over a two-day window they supported Obama. If that is their best claim to a lead in Ohio, it is a troubling picture for the president.

(See also: POLITICO's swing-state map)

I have always been a believer in data telling me the full story. Truth is, nobody knows what will happen on Election Day. But here is what we do know: 220,000 fewer Democrats have voted early in Ohio compared with 2008. And 30,000 more Republicans have cast their ballots compared with four years ago. That is a 250,000-vote net increase for a state Obama won by 260,000 votes in 2008.

Thanks fo the link, Rufus... very interesting read.

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I linked this up a couple of weeks ago and am glad some folks have found it helpful,although time consuming with it's depth and long scripting. The site tries to update in real time,as well. Today's RCP menu has a story on the 5 key counties in Ohio where voter turnout won't be known,of course,until voting day but it is remarkable the substantial number of early voters who didn't show up for the dems this year. 200K+ is a great many in a close,tight race.