Home Forums Hunting & Shooting Hunter's Campfire Where is the Stock Market Headed ?

I know there are folks on the Fire with a lot of experience in watching the Stock Market . For several Months I have read about a big downturn this Month , and it looks like it may have started . How about gazing into your Crystal Balls and predicting what is coming up ? What would you be investing in now ...if anything , or would you be bailing and heading for the hills ? Don't worry , I wont be quoting any of your predictions in the future , I'm just interested in opinions from experienced investors .

Every time I state an opinion on one of these stock market threads somebody crawls up my ass and blows up.

Basically I am in the "Buy and hold" school of thought, buy the good stuff ( widows and orphans type stuff) and sit on it, through good times and bad�.

However, Im still waiting for an honest 10% correction�haven't even come close to that since 2011 or 2012 IIRC...

wouldn't that hurt?

I'm out! Going back in with all funds and drips in Q3. Just doing something else with money right now.

It does! It hurts my feelers!

You know Im very sensitive�.

My version of ingwe's advice is to buy index funds. Timing the market is a fool's errand.

30 percent correction. Last year GDP grew 2% (mostly government spending) and the stock market grew 30%.

If I could predict with accuracy where the stock market is heading I would be a trillioniare.

I buy and hold, but make adjustments if things get to high to the point where I don't want to buy more shares of reinvested dividends. Stocks had a hell of a run the last few years, and we all knew that sooner or later, the market would correct itself a bit, and then keep heading up. Nobody knows how big of a correction though.

If I had cash right now looking to invest, I'd hold off a week or so and see if this sell off has any legs to it. Nothing wrong with buying things on sale. I'm paying really close to some dividend stocks and I'll pull the trigger when the yield gets to where I want it. We might have a good buying opportunity coming up.

Laughing, as there are lots of options for comments

The DOW will earn ~15% in 2014, after that I would prepare to liquidate.

Be ready to invest again in CDs as the interest rates are starting to creep up and it's just a matter of time before the rates take a large jump.

Buy low. Sell high.

Sure thing sell off all the good stuff and double down on the crappy ones.

Remember cash is an option.

I take my advice from the writings of William J. O'Neal (Investors Business Daily owner)

I am staying the course with my 401K "dollar cost averaging." It is these down periods where you gain share volume at bargain prices.

My single growth stock investments follow O'Neil's philosophy of selling if they drop 7-10% below purchase price. I won't buy anymore stocks until it turns around and has at least four consecutive up days.

Here is an informative selling tip from my favorite writer at Investor's Business Daily:



The Way You Heed Loss-Cutting Rules Matters

By PAUL WHITFIELD, INVESTOR'S BUSINESS DAILY


A rule can lead to different results, depending on how it's handled.

Novice IBD investors, if they don't know how to read a situation, can turn the 8% sell rule into a paper shredder � only the paper being shredded is green and has pictures of presidents on it. If you compound four 8% losses in a row, you're down 28%.

Standing at the other extreme are investors who seldom suffer an 8% loss. They sell modest winners before they turn negative. They sell losers before they reach the 8% loss.

What does the successful investor see that others miss?



If a stock breaks out Monday and triggers the 8% sell rule Tuesday, there's no room to avoid an 8% loss. Fortunately, that's fairly rare. More often, a stock will drop a series of hints before outright failure.

Toll Bros. (TOL) broke out Jan. 31 in heavy volume. But the stock, while up 1.7%, closed under the buy point. The next day, Toll dropped 5.7% below the buy point 1, though volume was weaker than the previous day.

Was it time to sell? Most investors would probably have given the stock more time. It was early.

Over the next eight sessions, Toll rose back toward break even. On Feb. 14, the stock cleared the entry again but in weak trade 2. Not ideal, but you could argue it already broke out in strong volume.

By Feb. 21, the 15-day mark, the most Toll had risen above the buy point was 2% 3. Why do we care about the 15-day mark? Many big winners will rise 20% or more in the first three weeks after a breakout. Toll was saying, "Forget that."

Do you sell? Probably not: Toll was holding above its short term, 10-day moving average 4. The stock held that line, rising 6% above the buy point March 4. (The 10-day line is used on Leaderboard for fine tuning.)

The first reasonable exit came March 10, when Toll closed under the 10-day line 5. An experienced IBD investor might've said: "I've owned this stock for five weeks and have little to show for it. Toll did stay above the 10-day line for 18 sessions in a row, but now it closed under the line and I have merely a 1.5% gain. This could easily cycle into a loss. Sell!"

Those who didn't sell there could've chosen an exit when it lost the 50-day line, 1.5% below the buy point 6. This was the last exit before March 24, when Toll fell 7.9% below the buy point.



Read More At Investor's Business Daily: http://education.investors.com/investors-corner/696712-how-to-invest-by-the-rules.htm#ixzz2ygyT6evj
Follow us: @IBDinvestors on Twitter | InvestorsBusinessDaily on Facebook

Better yet, buy high and sell higher.

At some point in time, common sense has to take over. Most of those stock brokers are experts with other people's money. It's easy to spend other people's money on high flying stocks. But, when it's your own money, and you have 20-30% gains for the year, it might be a good time to cut and run and invest in some of the stocks that haven't flown 20-30%. If a stock runs up over what I can get in 2 years of dividends, I sell it and put that money to work elsewhere.

If a sector is down and beaten up for not reason other than it isn't "cool" at the given moment, buy it up and hold it until it become "cool" again. Never out think common sense.

Right now I'm going to put some money in offshore drilling. They have taken a beating. I'm going to let things settle down, and then I'll buy. RIG is my #1 choice, and I'll be very interested at $37 a share.

When? Up in time.

Buy and hold fundamentally good companies.

Otherwise, invest in an index fund and hold it for a long time, according to your age and asset allocation brackets.

Anything else is for gamblers. Gamblers never win in the end.

I would add to Dakota Deer's good advice, balance your portfolio a couple of times a year. This insures buying low and selling high.

History shows us that short term, stocks fluctuate, long term they go up. My current asset allocation is listed as 60% stocks, 35% bonds, 5% cash. In truth it is more like 80/17/3 because I am a bit less "risk adverse". Truth is, when I see interest rates rising and they will, I will move more into bonds and CDs.

I am mostly retired but my wife still works. If I were younger and still working full time, most of my money would be in stock funds. 60% blue chip, 40% agressive growth.

A recent windfall was used to purchase a Florida, near the beach Condo with good rental history. While short term we can't use it when we want because of rental obligations, long term it will be a good family investment for vacations and long term asset growth for the kids.

Don't overlook good, rentable vacation properties as investments as they are still undervalued in many areas. Just don't get too near the shore in the SE because governments, in spite of what politicians tell us, not to mention the insurance industry, are already calculating higher sea levels.