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Campfire Ranger
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Be sure to remind them that it's just going to get worse. A 10-Year Prediction for the Affordable Care Act The Affordable Care Act cannot be broken down into sound bites. This holds true for both its most ardent supporters and its most fervent opponents. The law is simply too complex to be labeled either a total failure or a smashing success.
But that doesn't mean it isn't trending in one of those two directions. Across the country, individuals and families are beginning to learn whether their insurance premiums will change for 2015�early estimates indicate an overall national increase of 7.5 percent, according to a PricewaterhouseCoopers analysis. That's what is expected despite the early promise that the ACA would lower overall premiums by as much as $2,500 per family.
These hikes, which add to those experienced by many consumers last year, are likely just the tip of the iceberg. In recent months, I have worked with Dr. Stephen Parente, a professor of Health Finance at the University of Minnesota, to assess how the Affordable Care Act will affect Americans' access to health care over the next decade.
Our findings don't bode well for the law's long-term success.
We estimate that within 10 years, the number of uninsured Americans may increase by 10 percent. At the same time, premiums will rise faster than federal subsidies. The latter problem will be most severe when insurers release their 2017 rate increases in the summer and fall of 2016�perhaps the most awkward timing for the law's supporters.
We reached this conclusion using the 2014 enrollment numbers, which the Health and Human Services Department announced in April. We analyzed them using a consumer simulation model funded in part by HHS. The model uses the regulatory requirements mandated by the ACA to estimate the cause-and-effect relationship between health care plan pricing and consumers' buying habits.
The law will play out in two phases. The first will take place between now and 2016. During that time, the price of health care plans will increase. We already saw this happen last year and will likely see the same again this summer and fall. Another event will also likely repeat itself. This is one the law's opponents may prefer to ignore. The number of uninsured will decrease as people sign up for Medicaid or the Affordable Care Act's health exchanges.
But this trend will come to a sudden end in 2017. That year, health insurance companies will lose their ability to artificially depress health care costs using taxpayer money. (Two ACA provisions, both of which expire in 2017, currently let insurers tap federal taxpayer funds for various reasons.)
This will send shock waves through the health care world.
We estimate that average annual costs for the cheapest individual plans�the "bronze" plans�may increase by 96 percent, from roughly $2,100 to nearly $4,200. Bronze family plans prices, meanwhile, may increase by nearly 50 percent. The average plan in this category could come close to $13,000 a year in total premiums. Almost every plan will see a price increase of some kind.
Consumers will learn these unpleasant truths in the fall of 2016 when they attempt to extend their policies.
No matter where you live, the effects will ripple across the entire industry. The dramatically higher prices will almost surely drive some consumers out of the exchanges. But they won't have many places to turn. Many�perhaps most�won't be eligible for Medicaid, while others won't have jobs that offer replacement health insurance. People in this position will thus choose between health insurance they can't afford and becoming uninsured. Not even the IRS penalty will convince everyone to bite the bullet.
In 2017, we estimate that the number of uninsured Americans may increase by nearly 20 percent, undoing the gains of the previous two years. In subsequent years, that number may continue to grow�some years by 1 percent, other years by a bit more. Within a decade, some 40 million Americans will once again lack health insurance.
Although our study does not calculate the demographic breakdown of the uninsured, it is reasonable to conclude that African-Americans and Hispanics will be hit the hardest by the Affordable Care Act's failure to extend insurance coverage. Both groups historically have higher uninsured rates than the wider populace. A June Gallup Poll found that 17.6 percent of African-Americans and 37 percent of Hispanics were, at that time, uninsured. As health care costs continue to rise, they will likely be disproportionately affected and pushed out of the health insurance market.
This stands in stark contrast to the Affordable Care Act's stated purpose to increase health insurance coverage while making it more affordable. Despite its authors' best intentions, the law�as it currently stands�will accomplish neither of these goals.
By the end of the decade, America's health care crisis could be worse than it was before the law was passed. Washington is doing the American people a disservice by letting us find this out the hard way.
Last edited by Steve; 09/02/14. Reason: spelling
Carpe' Scrotum
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Campfire Ranger
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I'm not doubting his work - if anything I suspect his numbers may be low
but I've learned that whenever I read a story like this, the first thing I do is check out the author and see if he has any ulterior motivations to writing this
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He has served as an outside advisor to the Republican Governors Public Policy Committee and the National Republican Senatorial Committee. Previously, Michael was a policy director at the American Action Forum, a role in which he regularly contributed to Congressional testimony, published over 45 policy papers, and ran point for more than 100 economists in filing three Supreme Court amicus briefs on the economics of President Obama's health care law.
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So while his article seems credible, it would be more credible to me if he weren't bringing home a paycheck from Republicans
have you paid your dues, can you moan the blues, can you bend them guitar strings
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Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
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Point taken. But as you've stated his numbers seem reasonable. I'd also like to point out the Repubs have been right more than wrong on the effects of O-care and if it hadn't been for extralegal actions by the Whitehouse the ACA probably would have collapsed by now.
Carpe' Scrotum
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Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
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the ACA was written by insurance companies, not people needing health care
they're going to get their money.
have you paid your dues, can you moan the blues, can you bend them guitar strings
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Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
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And the ACA was enacted solely by Democrats.
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Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
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Carpe' Scrotum
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Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
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the ACA was written by insurance companies, not people needing health care
they're going to get their money. And as I learned lately, those insurance companies aren't even taking reasonable steps to contain costs.
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Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
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Why should they, their bail-out is written into the law.
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Campfire Sage
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Campfire Sage
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And the ACA was enacted solely by Democrats. Had it needed Republican votes, they would have materialized.
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Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
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And the ACA was enacted solely by Democrats. Had it needed Republican votes, they would have materialized. No way. No Republican was ever going to vote for ObamaCare in 2009. The 2010 election proved they were right not to vote for that mess.
Leo of the Land of Dyr
NRA FOR LIFE
I MISS SARAH
“In Trump We Trust.” Right????
SOMEBODY please tell TRH that Netanyahu NEVER said "Once we squeeze all we can out of the United States, it can dry up and blow away."
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Campfire Oracle
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Campfire Oracle
Joined: Dec 2003
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And the ACA was enacted solely by Democrats. Had it needed Republican votes, they would have materialized. Barry wasn't going to bribe Rs and flood their districts with federal money (ours) to get their vote. That was saved for the Ds. PTB - Pay The Base.
If you take the time it takes, it takes less time. --Pat Parelli
American by birth; Alaskan by choice. --ironbender
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Campfire Oracle
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Campfire Oracle
Joined: Dec 2003
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The people that could not afford, or just would not buy health insurance, still can't/won't. Added to that are the folks whose premiums put health insurance out of reach.
If you take the time it takes, it takes less time. --Pat Parelli
American by birth; Alaskan by choice. --ironbender
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Campfire Oracle
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Campfire Oracle
Joined: Dec 2003
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I'd also like to point out the Repubs have been right more than wrong on the effects of O-care and if it hadn't been for extralegal actions by the Whitehouse the ACA probably would have collapsed by now. Well, at least it all was transparent.
If you take the time it takes, it takes less time. --Pat Parelli
American by birth; Alaskan by choice. --ironbender
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Campfire Ranger
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OP
Campfire Ranger
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Carpe' Scrotum
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Campfire Regular
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And the ACA was enacted solely by Democrats. Absolutely! When it comes time to vote, everyone needs to remember how the Dems went behind closed doors and crammed this fiasco down our throats.
Kelly
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Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
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ACA wasn't so much about insurance, it was about the expansion of medicaid. All the working poor w/ families are now eligible for medicaid.
Essentially, we have a single payer plan (and a dang good one) for all low income earners, and no income earners. Make past that threshold, and medical gets very expensive, very quickly.
Best move for most folks is to spend less, earn less, pay no taxes, get a EITC and get medical for free. They'll end up miles ahead.
Interesting country we have become.
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Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Jul 2011
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ACA wasn't so much about insurance, it was about the expansion of medicaid. All the working poor w/ families are now eligible for medicaid.
Essentially, we have a single payer plan (and a dang good one) for all low income earners, and no income earners. Make past that threshold, and medical gets very expensive, very quickly.
Best move for most folks is to spend less, earn less, pay no taxes, get a EITC and get medical for free. They'll end up miles ahead.
Interesting country we have become. Exactly so.
America needs to understand that our troops are not 'disposable'. Each represents a family; Fathers, Mothers, Sons, Daughters, Cousins, Uncles, Aunts... Our Citizens are our most valuable treasure; we waste far too many.
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Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
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I was in my insurance agent's office today and asked him how the health insurance sales were going. Henry is normally a very laid-back, cheerful guy. His face turned dark and said "You have only seen the beginning of what a mess this is. I can't legally sell you a health policy unless you've just lost your job. The "open window" for health insurance policy sales doesn't open until Oct. 15th for policies that will take effect on Nov 1st. There is a 30 day window for us to sell health insurance. You are going to be shocked at the cost, too. Those costs are predicted to skyrocket after Jan 2015, too. So much for a friendly chat with a friend... Ed
"Not in an open forum, where truth has less value than opinions, where all opinions are equally welcome regardless of their origins, rationale, inanity, or truth, where opinions are neither of equal value nor decisive." Ken Howell
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Campfire Oracle
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Campfire Oracle
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Have a chat with health care professionals that deal with hospital payments, medicare, medicaid, and ACA.
That'll get your BP up in the need-a-health-care-professional range.
If you take the time it takes, it takes less time. --Pat Parelli
American by birth; Alaskan by choice. --ironbender
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Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
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Tuff position we are in. In all fairness, it was really screwed up before the ACA too.
Not sure what the solution is. Everybody seems to think they are entitled to health care no matter what decisions they make in life.
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