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Joined: Jan 2005
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Campfire Ranger
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OP
Campfire Ranger
Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 22,884 |
This short article is an interesting discussion of oil prices. It also has a chart showing what other countries need per barrel to make money on oil. Our shale oil plays make money from $60 (maybe) to around $80 per barrel. Even the lowest OPEC country needs $80 minimum, and it goes up quickly from there. Our ability to drill for cheap oil gives us the most political leverage of any country in the world. http://www.businessweek.com/articles/2014-10-30/it-looks-like-80-oil-is-here-to-stay#r=read
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Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 24,670 Likes: 1
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 24,670 Likes: 1 |
In June of 2008 oil topped out at 147.11 and it fell from there. A year later I was meeting with the chief economist from BP and he boldly proclaimed that the 147.11 is a high that will never be repeated. I stopped and asked him to clarify his definition of "never" and he said "never" was forever. I still have a hard time swallowing that. In a century we should get to just twice that by currency devaluation and inflation.
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Joined: Jan 2005
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Campfire 'Bwana
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Campfire 'Bwana
Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 38,922 Likes: 10 |
Anyone know what the price of gas was the last time that oil was steady at below $80?
Not a real member - just an ordinary guy who appreciates being able to hang around and say something once in awhile.
Happily Trapped In the Past (Thanks, Joe)
Not only a less than minimally educated person, but stupid and out of touch as well.
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Joined: Dec 2008
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Campfire Oracle
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Campfire Oracle
Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 78,306 Likes: 2 |
If oil topped out at $147....lets say gas topped out at $4
Oil is at $80 now...54% of its high.
Gas is at, lets say $3....75% of its high.
I think maybe we are still getting 'lubed' by the oil companies.....
"...the left considers you vermin, and they'll kill you given the chance..." Bristoe
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Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 38,922 Likes: 10
Campfire 'Bwana
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Campfire 'Bwana
Joined: Jan 2005
Posts: 38,922 Likes: 10 |
Not a real member - just an ordinary guy who appreciates being able to hang around and say something once in awhile.
Happily Trapped In the Past (Thanks, Joe)
Not only a less than minimally educated person, but stupid and out of touch as well.
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Joined: Mar 2012
Posts: 6,519
Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: Mar 2012
Posts: 6,519 |
"And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor."
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Joined: Nov 2002
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Campfire 'Bwana
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Campfire 'Bwana
Joined: Nov 2002
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The price of oil ain't the only cost in a gallon of gas. Go look up how the share value of the oil majors have performed this year.
Conduct is the best proof of character.
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Joined: Nov 2011
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Campfire 'Bwana
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Campfire 'Bwana
Joined: Nov 2011
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If oil topped out at $147....lets say gas topped out at $4
Oil is at $80 now...54% of its high.
Gas is at, lets say $3....75% of its high.
I think maybe we are still getting 'lubed' by the oil companies..... You have both fixed and variable costs in the production of gasoline. Oil is a variable cost, where the cost of operating the refinery is a fixed cost.
You didn't use logic or reason to get into this opinion, I cannot use logic or reason to get you out of it.
You cannot over estimate the unimportance of nearly everything. John Maxwell
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Joined: Aug 2004
Posts: 69,710 Likes: 28
Campfire Kahuna
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Campfire Kahuna
Joined: Aug 2004
Posts: 69,710 Likes: 28 |
oil to stay at/below $80 permanently They haven't been around the oil business very long to even say that in passing, or they would know better...
Molɔ̀ːn Labé Skýla!
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Joined: Nov 2009
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Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: Nov 2009
Posts: 3,927 |
You also have to figure in how much Federal and state sales and highway taxes have increased over the years. Those taxes have added greatly to the cost of a gallon of gas.
Keep your gun-hand ready and your eyes peeled.
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Joined: Nov 2003
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Campfire Kahuna
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Campfire Kahuna
Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 67,786 Likes: 7 |
In June of 2008 oil topped out at 147.11 and it fell from there. A year later I was meeting with the chief economist from BP and he boldly proclaimed that the 147.11 is a high that will never be repeated. I stopped and asked him to clarify his definition of "never" and he said "never" was forever. I still have a hard time swallowing that. In a century we should get to just twice that by currency devaluation and inflation. Oil might have been at a price peak, but gas at the time of the election win November, was about $1.89 gallon.
Sam......
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Joined: Mar 2004
Posts: 6,065
Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: Mar 2004
Posts: 6,065 |
yep, "permanent" has a shelf life shorter than commonly believed.
Imagine that once those pesky Ruskies and the ISIS have learned their lessons, oil could head north some...
Defend the Constitution
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Joined: Oct 2004
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Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 24,670 Likes: 1 |
Maybe that's the chart for Brent, not WTI which peaked at 147.11 on a single day in July of 2008; but some reports say it was 145.00. If you go to the DOE EIA web site you can download a spreadsheet with the closing prices each week for the past 50 or so years.
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Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 24,670 Likes: 1
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 24,670 Likes: 1 |
In June of 2008 oil topped out at 147.11 and it fell from there. A year later I was meeting with the chief economist from BP and he boldly proclaimed that the 147.11 is a high that will never be repeated. I stopped and asked him to clarify his definition of "never" and he said "never" was forever. I still have a hard time swallowing that. In a century we should get to just twice that by currency devaluation and inflation. Oil might have been at a price peak, but gas at the time of the election win November, was about $1.89 gallon. By the election in November we had a near complete collapse of the economy. The fall was fast and far. Stock market investors have a saying. �The bull climbs the stairs, but the bear jumps out the window�.
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Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 803
Campfire Regular
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Campfire Regular
Joined: Apr 2014
Posts: 803 |
Just to say it, WTI will not forever remain under $80 per barrel.
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Joined: Sep 2001
Posts: 19,090 Likes: 2
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Sep 2001
Posts: 19,090 Likes: 2 |
$4.00/gal was the tipping point in the U.S. Economy.
The ceiling was found, it was painful for all, and a realization that the whole economy would crumble if something didn't change.
Credit and mortgage failures were the first big indicators, followed by production drawdowns and higher unemployment.
The ripple effect is hitting China and the other low price labor markets now too, decreasing their demands for oil as well.
Everything gets rebalanced in time.
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Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 28,271 Likes: 7
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Aug 2005
Posts: 28,271 Likes: 7 |
oil to stay at/below $80 permanently They haven't been around the oil business very long to even say that in passing, or they would know better... Right on rockinbbar. In the oil patch you never say "never" or "forever".
It is irrelevant what you think. What matters is the TRUTH.
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Joined: May 2004
Posts: 5,224 Likes: 2
Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
Joined: May 2004
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I have heard that stuff for 40 years,,,,, and I'm only 51. When it hit $1.00 they said it would never be less. That was around 1975. In 1999 it was $ .87 cents. Goes to $4.00 and would never be less than $3.00. That was Sept . 2005 after Katrina. I payed $ 2.96 today... My mutaul fund with 30% oil stocks did ok the last 2 weeks. Never know guys...... I hope it goes up some and then I might get out. If Israel gets in a cat fight with Iran or starts a good pissin match with Hamas instead of titt for tat it may go up again. Or another tough winter and walla.
But the fruits of the spirit is love, joy, peace, patience, kindness, goodness,faithfulness, Gentleness and self control. Against such things there is no law. Galations 5: 22&23
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Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 13,268
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
Joined: Sep 2007
Posts: 13,268 |
Extraction and refining cost in the US are higher than they ever have been due to what we are drilling for etc...
Currently it cost approximately $60/barrel to extract and refine a barrel of oil in the US.
Already seeing a pullback on the extraction side.
Of course this has all been in the short term.
Last edited by NathanL; 10/30/14.
Otto is my co-pilot.
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Joined: Oct 2004
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Campfire Kahuna
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Campfire Kahuna
Joined: Oct 2004
Posts: 50,170 Likes: 2 |
I think maybe we are still getting 'lubed' by the oil companies..... Nah...competition is fierce in the oil industry, but they are going to make their profit. No matter what the government stacks on top of what the consumer has to pay.
The only thing worse than a liberal is a liberal that thinks they're a conservative.
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