I live in a Seattle suburb with extremely low crime rate. 380 is good enough.
5 miles away are Seattle neighborhoods with extremely high crime rates. 380 in my left hand and 45acp in my right hand.
A decision whether to carry or not might reasonably be based on that analysis, but once the decision is made that the likelihood is high enough to justify carrying a handgun, the probability of victimization doesn't seem a reasonable basis for choice of handgun. If it's going to happen, you are no more more or less likely to need a particular type of handgun vs another
based on what the probability was that you'd be victimized.
The choice of handgun should be made mostly based on what type of handgun you'd like to have should you need to use it to save your life from an attacker. Secondary factors after that would have to do with comfort and concealability, but those would be fairly distant secondary considerations vs what you'd like to have should you need it, and - once again - the latter seems to me to be entirely unrelated to the probability of victimization.
