I met the meteorologist who forecast Michael to make landfall at 90MPH. He said that there was a range of error of 70MPH. He explained why he felt like it was going to be on the lower end. It went something like this. There was a trough of highly favorable conditions about 50 miles broad. The steering elements are easier to accurately predict than the intensity elements. The storm was not supposed to move along that trough. They were only off by a little on the track, but that little mattered a lot relative to the favorable conditions for intensification.
