As I've said before and will continue to say, Africa, like most every country is rapidly changing. Some for the better and some for the worse. I think this current WuFlu is just one more factor, similar to the impact HIV/AIDS has had. I'm mostly worried about the short term impact this will have on many of the govt's there and if the various "Presidents" there see/believe they can turn these lock downs in to Marshall Law due to the highly likely riots that will occur if they try to keep their populations on prolonged lock down. This is more of a political discussion that might be better discussed in a new thread.
So keeping this more in line with the impact on future hunting only and viability/sustainability of particular PH's/Outfitters, I'm sure some will not survive economically. Will depend on how they are organized. What I mean by that is that if they are land/farm owners that have other sources of income available from the livestock and game on their property, while they will have a hard time, they are most likely to survive a very shortened "FOREIGN" hunting season. They will still have a few local meat hunters and likely be able to obtain culling permits to take PG animals for meat sales to the local markets.
IF a PH/Outfitter doesn't own land they hunt on, then they basically have only two options: a) they work with the local landowners and work out a deal for access to the land either via an annual lease with quota limits or pay a daily access/trespass fee and per head fee for each animal taken. They usually add a percentage on the "head fee" they pay to the landowner. These PH/Outfitters don't have a lot of overhead or fixed costs if they're just paying a daily trespass fee. Down side is, they usually don't have any other source of income. Some will hire out to the landowners to to their cull/meet hunting for them but it's just enough for food, fuel and bullets.
Third group are those that don't own land and have to lease concession areas from either the Communal Lands or from the Govt. Those agreements usually require the entire fee for the season be paid up front and it's very unlikely they would get a refund of any amount. Same thing with this group in that they generally have no other source of income/employment.
Obviously, some guys operate with a toe in one or more of these generalizations. I my personnel view, the one's most likely to be around next year will be the PH's/Outfitters based off their own and surrounding farm/ranch lands.
Medical care in most of sub Sahara Africa, other than RSA while under apartheid and just years after majority rule, has been a good bit short/behind most western standards. I don't think the WuFlu in itself will change that much for the better or worse WHEN THIS ALL SETTLES DOWN and it will settle down.
I do think it's highly likely that if this sorts out anytime yet this hunting season, both in countries opening boarders and airlines getting up and running, there will be some UNBELIEVABLE deals as far as hunting and airfares for those that are ready and willing and have been able to set aside some money to take advantage of it.
Just my opine and I tend to be a bit on the optimistic side. As long as there is no serious political fallout, I think things will get back to "normal" pretty quickly once things start to open.
