If Trump gets the 2024 nomination, he very likely could win. I don't think he will get the nomination though.
R's either love or hate him. R candidates have learned from him. He won the 2016 nomination because he was a breath of fresh air, saying what had to be said, but also taking it personal, which was pushed aside by many because he had the right overall ideas. Next time around, there will be others saying the same thing, the right ideas, but Trump is a known entity now and that will turn off just enough Rs to push the nomination elsewhere, assuming a good/decent candidate comes along.
However, if he gets the nomination, he will win.
