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Joined: Dec 2006
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Campfire Ranger
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OP
Campfire Ranger
Joined: Dec 2006
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I think we'll see the markets tank soon. This is a BIG thing happening, and it's closing off global trade, no doubt.
It's time to move to cash...maybe?
Hunt with Class and Classics
Religion: A founder of The Church of Spray and Pray
Acquit v. t. To render a judgment in a murder case in San Francisco... EQUAL, adj. As bad as something else. Ambrose Bierce “The Devil's Dictionary”
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Campfire 'Bwana
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Campfire 'Bwana
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Nope.
We are about 6 years from our next major correction.
You didn't use logic or reason to get into this opinion, I cannot use logic or reason to get you out of it.
You cannot over estimate the unimportance of nearly everything. John Maxwell
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Joined: Dec 2006
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Campfire Ranger
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OP
Campfire Ranger
Joined: Dec 2006
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I don't look at a possible world pandemic as a correction, but a disaster. China's economy is headed into the tank. That alone could cause more than a mere "correction".
I Hope you're 100% correct, however.
Hunt with Class and Classics
Religion: A founder of The Church of Spray and Pray
Acquit v. t. To render a judgment in a murder case in San Francisco... EQUAL, adj. As bad as something else. Ambrose Bierce “The Devil's Dictionary”
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Joined: Dec 2008
Posts: 8,312
Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
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I’m already in cash, markets only run so far. The stock market is like 99. I think the least we will see is a 30% correction.
"Life is tough, even tougher if your stupid" John Wayne
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Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 28,411
Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Nov 2003
Posts: 28,411 |
Not unless it truly goes worldwide. The tariffs slowed China somewhat.
I’m thinking we’ll see a dip or pullback but not a major one. Time will tell.
The degree of my privacy is no business of yours.
What we've learned from history is that we haven't learned from it.
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Campfire Tracker
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Campfire Tracker
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Quando omni flunkus moritati
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Joined: Feb 2007
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Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
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I’m staying invested. I never was smart enough to time the market.
NRA Patron
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Campfire Tracker
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Remember why, specifically, the Bill of Rights was written...remember its purpose. It was written to limit the power of government over the individual.
There is no believing a liar, even when he speaks the truth.
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Joined: Dec 2013
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Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Dec 2013
Posts: 23,686 Likes: 1 |
We're pretty much 35% cash/value of our business assets, 25% stocks and 40% real estate (equity in our primary and secondary residences plus rental properties). Not sure what else to do besides stay diverse. The bulk of what we have in the market is in mutual funds and in 401k and Roth's and I'm 20 years from retirement, so not losing sleep at night over "what if's" and definitely not pulling out of the market. Might move into safer funds for the short term.
I'm becoming more and more convinced to move heavier Into real estate/rentals. Wife is managing ours full time (as well as running the office for our construction business) and being in construction makes it more profitable in several ways, (tax write-off's, being able to self perform maintenance etc.) plus we're seeing a 10% cap rate on what we have and can find more with the same if I buy right and do upgrades myself. Our area is traditionally protected due to 3 colleges/universities located with-in a 10 mile radius and one of the highest rates of growth in our state.
A trusted relative/mentor used to always tell me the stock market was nothing but a piece of paper, but buy a piece of land and even if it drops in value "you can always take a piss or plant a potato on it" a lot to be said for that advice.
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Joined: Feb 2009
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Campfire Outfitter
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Campfire Outfitter
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It will get somewhat lower in the next few weeks but it will come back with a vengeance.
It has fallen the last few weeks even after China said that more folks were sick and dead.
The travel folks will take a hit but i thing that others will find countries that will make up any short falls of goods that China can not make.
Sometime in late March it will subside.
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Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: May 2011
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We will see market volatility this year but there's nothing major on deck.
There are 2 rules to success:
1. Never tell everything that you know.
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Joined: Jan 2009
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Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
Joined: Jan 2009
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Nope.
We are about 6 years from our next major correction. That sounds about right. The corona virus is a simple anomaly that is presenting opportunistic buy in points in the market.
"All that the South has ever desired was that the Union, as established by our forefathers, should be preserved, and that the government, as originally organized, should be administered in purity and truth." – Robert E. Lee
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Campfire Ranger
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Campfire Ranger
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Election year. Probably the most contentious in modern history. A certain level of market volatility is inevitable.
Unless you're planning on retiring this year....[yawn]
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That’s the premise behind the whole thing.
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Campfire 'Bwana
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Campfire 'Bwana
Joined: Nov 2011
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I’m already in cash, markets only run so far. The stock market is like 99. I think the least we will see is a 30% correction. I was a stock broker in 1999. We are no where close to 1999.
You didn't use logic or reason to get into this opinion, I cannot use logic or reason to get you out of it.
You cannot over estimate the unimportance of nearly everything. John Maxwell
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Posts: 2,532
Campfire Regular
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Campfire Regular
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The clock started back in August when the yield curve inverted for the 2yr & 10yr Treasuries, typically giving us 1-2 years before the market slides. The Chinese problem may hasten the timeline. The market tends to go up after the inversion until it falls.
Last edited by tdbob; 02/13/20.
Just down the road from The City of Lost Souls in the Land of the Blind. Molɔ̀ːn Labé Skýla
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Campfire Outfitter
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The market's appreciation in the last month or so since Corona includes the safe haven premium. Overseas markets will tank first. Dollar is high, US markets are high, I think an overseas market buying opportunity may be presenting itself shortly.
Sic Semper Tyrannis
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Just read that folks after getting the gene sequence developed a vaccine for it.
Now to mass produce it and get it out there.
Always hope.
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Campfire Regular
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The Chinese situation is a bit more serious than most realize. PRC has shut down. Nobody going to work. Nothing going in and nothing definitely coming out business wise. It will certainly affect the world economy for the next quarter or 2. PRC is the #2 economy in the world. It may to prove to be a great buying opportunity, choose wisely.
Just down the road from The City of Lost Souls in the Land of the Blind. Molɔ̀ːn Labé Skýla
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Campfire Ranger
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